Forecast check
Are Upside’s forecasts right?
Every live forecast is recorded before its outcome is known and scored when its horizon ends. This page compares what Upside forecast with what actually happened, including whether the forecasts have been too optimistic.
- Live forecasts scored
- 10
- Chance of a rise: forecast → actual
- 31% → 30%
- Chance of a fall: forecast → actual
- 30% → 50%
- Right direction
- waiting for 30 (0)
Not enough scored forecasts yet to judge. Each market needs at least 30 per horizon; the numbers update after every session.
Optimism by market and horizon
For the strategy in use: the average forecast chance of a rise and of a fall, next to how often prices actually rose or fell over the same horizon. A gap of more than 8 points between the two is flagged.
| Market | Horizon | Scored | Rise: forecast → actual | Fall: forecast → actual | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 session | 10 | 31% → 30% | 30% → 50% | Too few to judge |
Calibration
Forecasts grouped by their chance of a rise in 5-point steps. Each dot shows how often prices actually rose in that group. Dots on the diagonal mean the probabilities are honest; dots below it mean too optimistic. Larger dots hold more forecasts.
Strategies compared
All markets and horizons together. Skill compares each strategy with the base rate on the same forecasts: above 0 means it added information.
| Strategy | Scored | Skill vs base rate | Right direction | Rise: forecast → actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base rateTrusted | 10 | – | waiting for 30 (0) | 31% → 30% |
| Machine learning (LightGBM) | 10 | +1.92% | waiting for 30 (2) | 32% → 30% |
| llm.analyst | 5 | +1.04% | waiting for 30 (0) | 30% → 0% |
| Momentum | 10 | +0.78% | waiting for 30 (0) | 29% → 30% |
| RSI | 10 | +0.18% | waiting for 30 (0) | 28% → 30% |
| Bollinger Bands | 10 | -0.10% | waiting for 30 (0) | 31% → 30% |
| MACD | 10 | -0.74% | waiting for 30 (0) | 32% → 30% |
| Moving-average trend | 10 | -0.88% | waiting for 30 (0) | 32% → 30% |
| Rule ensemble | 10 | -1.26% | waiting for 30 (0) | 28% → 30% |
| Donchian channel | 10 | -2.72% | waiting for 30 (0) | 28% → 30% |
| ADX trend strength | 10 | -2.95% | waiting for 30 (2) | 32% → 30% |
Week by week (strategy in use)
| Week | Scored | Rise: forecast → actual |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-W41 | 10 | 31% → 30% |
Recently scored forecasts
The latest forecasts of the strategy in use whose horizon has ended, with what happened. Click a column to sort.
| Symbol | Horizon | Forecast after | Rise | Flat | Fall | What happened | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP/USDT | 1 session | 10/11/2026 | 28% | 42% | 30% | Fell | -4.83% |
| SOL/USDT | 1 session | 10/11/2026 | 31% | 37% | 32% | Fell | -5.02% |
| BNB/USDT | 1 session | 10/11/2026 | 33% | 38% | 29% | Fell | -2.83% |
| ETH/USDT | 1 session | 10/11/2026 | 32% | 38% | 30% | Fell | -3.54% |
| BTC/USDT | 1 session | 10/11/2026 | 31% | 41% | 28% | Fell | -2.30% |
| XRP/USDT | 1 session | 10/10/2026 | 28% | 42% | 30% | Flat | +0.56% |
| SOL/USDT | 1 session | 10/10/2026 | 31% | 37% | 32% | Rose | +1.14% |
| BNB/USDT | 1 session | 10/10/2026 | 33% | 38% | 29% | Flat | +0.55% |
| ETH/USDT | 1 session | 10/10/2026 | 32% | 38% | 30% | Rose | +1.21% |
| BTC/USDT | 1 session | 10/10/2026 | 31% | 41% | 28% | Rose | +0.95% |
How the check works
A forecast gives three probabilities: a rise, a flat move or a fall over 1, 5, 20 or 60 sessions. "Flat" means a move smaller than the usual daily noise of that market.
Forecasts are written to the database before the outcome is known and cannot be changed afterwards. Backfilled forecasts, written after the fact, are never counted here.
The strategy in use is still the base rate: the past frequency of rises, flat moves and falls. Because gold, stocks and crypto have risen over the long run, it tends to lean towards a rise. This page is where that bias shows up if it turns out to be wrong.