Gold price today (XAU/USD)

Gold prices on Kitco eased about 0.6% in the October 12 session to $4,172 an ounce, after a sharp rally the previous week. In the same session, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold fund, bought a net 2.3 tonnes of gold and now holds about 1,055 tonnes. Markets price in roughly a 17% chance of a Fed rate hike in October and an 87.7% chance of at least one hike before December, so gold is focused on whether upcoming September CPI data revives the year-end tightening path. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield around 5.24% is also weighing on gold through real yields. Some analysts say gold may need to retest support near $4,000 an ounce, while another notes its rebound has lost momentum.

Gold-backed ETFs worldwide drew in 67.3 tonnes of gold, nearly $10 billion, in September, pushing third-quarter inflows to a record $31 billion, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). The unusual point is that money kept flowing in even as the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points and both Treasury yields and the dollar rose, factors that typically pressure gold. North America reversed after outflows in the first half, taking in $11.7 billion in the third quarter and bringing year-to-date flows back to about $4.1 billion, while Asia posted its third consecutive month of inflows, led by China. The WGC says the 10-year US Treasury yield staying above 5% remains the biggest variable for gold, and that demand may be more durable than a one-off reaction.

On the morning of October 13, SJC gold bars fell VND 800,000 from the previous day to VND 140.5-143.5 million per tael, bringing the two-day drop to VND 1.3 million across domestic brands. World spot gold closed the October 12 session down nearly $23 at $4,171 an ounce, equivalent to VND 132 million per tael, leaving the domestic price more than VND 11 million above the international level, compared with a gap of VND 1-3 million at the end of August. The market is weighed down by a stronger US dollar and higher oil prices, while investors await US inflation data for clues on the Fed's rate path. Kyle Rodda of Capital said that if inflation comes in above expectations and triggers another Fed rate hike, precious metals could fall sharply in the short term. Domestic silver bars also fell 0.7%.

Fed's Hammack says higher interest rates could be needed to prevent an 'inflationary mindset' from taking hold.