Archer Aviation (ACHR) trades near $5 a share, down from about $7.50 at the close of 2025 and below $7 for much of 2026. The eVTOL company earned just $300,000 in revenue in 2025, and its Midnight aircraft still lacks FAA approval for commercial flights. The author expects FAA type certification by 2029, noting Archer has completed three of four certification phases, and sees upside from a planned purchase of three Boeing subsidiaries, including Insitu, a drone maker with over $200 million in annual revenue. The main risk is dilution from further capital raises and shares issued for the deal, as Archer lost about $260 million in the second quarter alone. The author sees a shot at $8 a share by October 2029, which would turn $5,000 into $8,000, while stressing that this is not a guarantee.
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