California voters will decide on Proposition 40, a one-time 5% tax on billionaires' assets, in less than a month, and the measure has drawn heavy opposition from state billionaires. Google co-founder Sergey Brin has spent more than $100 million fighting it, and Peter Thiel has put millions toward opposition; Gov. Gavin Newsom also publicly opposes it. As of Oct. 13, Kalshi put the chance of passage at 26% and Polymarket at about 25%. An early September PPIC poll, however, found 52% of respondents planned to vote yes versus 46% no, and a majority would back measures that heavily limit the tax's power. The article cautions that prediction markets' strong 2024 election record does not guarantee accuracy on every vote.
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French 10-year bond yields have risen toward 4.9%, their highest level in more than 20 years, with the spread over German bonds near 140 basis points. IMF official Mateusz Szczurek said short-term debt risks are manageable given the market's liquidity, long maturities and diversified investor base, but yields staying higher for longer would add pressure on public finances. He stressed that France needs a credible medium-term consolidation plan, starting with a 2027 budget approved in time to meet EU fiscal rules, amid market worries that a fragmented political scene may struggle to pass deficit cuts before the April and May elections. France expects a deficit of 5.4% of GDP this year, with its 5.0% target now set for 2027, and must bring it below 3% by 2029. The IMF cut its growth forecasts for France to 0.4% this year and 0.7% in 2027, down from 0.9% previously.
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