Speaking at TOKEN2049 in Singapore, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan suggested crypto investors could earn superior returns by trading prediction market event contracts instead of buying crypto on the spot market. The article describes the crypto market as driven by “irrational exuberance” and a “hot potato” game, where altcoins promising 100x returns often crash, with Bitcoin and Ethereum as notable exceptions. It argues prediction markets offer more “predictable” returns, citing a hypothetical example of Bitcoin contracts accumulated when BTC was $60,000 that would be profitable with Bitcoin near $85,000, and noting such contracts can also profit in falling markets. The author says prediction market contracts shouldn’t make up an entire portfolio because that would be too risky, but could boost a long-term buy-and-hold portfolio.
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