Starlink is SpaceX's biggest earner, driving 55% of revenue in Q2 2026 and adding 1.7 million net subscribers in the quarter, or about 570,000 per month. Average revenue per user was $66 per month, so each subscriber pays about $792 a year, and this pace adds roughly $450 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) for each month of growth, or about $5.4 billion over a year. Key risks include ARPU declining as Starlink enters lower-priced markets (down from $85 a year earlier), and slower growth from market saturation or network capacity limits, with an analysis by Tim Farrar of TMF Associates estimating capacity at about 20 million subscribers. On the positive side, SpaceX deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites on Sept. 28, each designed for 1 Tbps of downlink, but Starship must launch regularly to meaningfully expand capacity. With a $2.2 trillion valuation as of Oct. 12, the article argues that this growth is largely priced in.
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