Republicans worried about the midterms increasingly hope the polls are wrong, pointing to 2022, when forecasts of a Democratic rout fell short, though few expect a good night on Nov. 3. Strategists say polls struggle to model Republican voters who don't answer calls or aren't interested, and Trump beat final polling averages in all seven swing states in 2024. Pollster Patrick Ruffini found that in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio, 93 percent of Senate polls overestimated the Democratic candidate. Still, Democrats hold a roughly 9-point national lead on the generic ballot, up from about 6.5 points around Labor Day, while inflation, high prices, mortgage rates and the Middle East war weigh on the GOP. The White House and RNC insist polls have underestimated Republican support.
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Original headline: The GOP midterm lifeline : Maybe the polls are wrong
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