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The essay argues that confidence underpins all finance, since credit, currency and long-term commitments rest on the expectation that rules will hold. It describes confidence as collective, asymmetric (built slowly, lost quickly) and noticeable only when it fails. Citing a long decline in trust, the author notes that about three in four Americans trusted Washington in the mid-1960s, compared with about one in five today, and that courts, the press and the central bank have lost credibility. The author warns that temporary emergency measures tend to become permanent and erode public trust. In the essay's definition, the rule of law requires laws that are public, equal, prospective, stable and enforced by independent courts.
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