ARK Invest has bought nearly 1.3 million Rocket Lab (RKLB) shares in three waves from late August to Oct. 1, worth over $85 million, as the stock trades at under half its late-May record close of about $150. ARK argues that if SpaceX scales Starship toward 10,000 launches a year by 2030 and retires Falcon 9 by the end of the decade, the U.S. could face a launch shortage that Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket could help fill, though Neutron has not flown yet. Backlog hit a record $2.36 billion as of June 30, up 137% year over year, but Neutron's launch timing is uncertain and second-quarter free cash flow was negative $110 million. Rocket Lab raised about $1.94 billion by selling roughly 29.3 million shares, which dilutes current shareholders. At about $68 a share, the company is valued near $46 billion, or about 44 times sales, and the author would want to see Neutron fly before buying.
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