Eurasia Group says Hungary is likely to join the eurozone in 2032 despite short-term budget slippage from drought and geopolitical shocks. The firm forecasts the general government deficit rising to around 7.7–7.8% of GDP this year, while public debt, at 75.6% mid-year, is likely to approach 77% of GDP by end-2026. Markets have already reacted, with credit default swap prices rising as deficit expectations weakened. Analysts expect Prime Minister Péter Magyar to lean toward additional taxes on large corporations and to aim for ERM II membership by 2030, a prerequisite that would pave the way for eurozone entry after at least two years in ERM II. Fitch separately projects a 7.3% deficit this year, falling to 5.8% by 2027.
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