News about interest rates

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly said the Fed had 'removed a dose of accommodation' at its September meeting, a signal that inflation remains a concern. September producer prices rose 6.3% on a headline basis and 5% on a core basis, above expectations, though headline inflation had eased from its 4.2% peak in May. The Fed voted 12-0 on Sept. 16 to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and the author argues further hikes could come in December and through 2027. Because much AI infrastructure spending is partly debt-financed, the author warns that rising borrowing costs could slow AI growth, noting the market is the second-priciest in history.

Homes available for sale in the UK have reached their highest level for this time of year since 2014, according to Rightmove, limiting price growth as sellers face elevated mortgage rates. Average asking prices for new listings were broadly flat at £371,015, up 1% month on month but down 0.1% year on year. Northern regions saw the biggest monthly falls, while London rose 2.5% after a 6.0% decline over the summer. The average two-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 5.29% to 5.55%, sales agreed fell 8% and new buyer enquiries fell 9% year on year, and some buyers may be waiting for details of the Your First Home scheme.

Mortgage holders should expect interest rates to stay higher for longer, whether or not the RBA lifts them again. The RBA says intense global competition for capital from AI and data centre companies is pushing up the neutral rate, and assistant governor Christopher Kent said there is reasonable evidence neutral rates are rising in Australia and abroad. The cash rate is now 4.6%, the highest in 15 years, and markets have almost fully priced in another rise by mid-2027, with no expected falls below current levels before mid-2028. Economists Luke Yeaman and Paul Bloxham link high government spending, at 26.9% of GDP in 2025/26 and the highest in 40 years excluding COVID-19, to weaker rate effects, and Bloxham urged further federal spending cuts.

On October 19, Nam A Bank cut its interest rates in line with directives from the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam: listed deposit rates for terms of 6 months and longer fall by 0.5% per year, and lending rates drop by 1.5–2% per year. The bank will prioritize credit for agriculture, rural areas, exports, SMEs, supporting industries and high-tech enterprises. CEO Trần Khải Hoàn said the call to lower rate levels is an important message on market discipline and stressed that sustainable growth must rest on asset quality, risk management and liquidity safety. He added that Nam A Bank does not use interest rates to attract customers, relying instead on its corporate culture.

Mortgage holders should expect rates to stay high for longer, whether or not the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifts them again. The RBA says competition for capital from AI and data centre companies is pushing up its estimate of the neutral rate, which Christopher Kent said appears to be rising in Australia and abroad. At 4.6 per cent, the cash rate is the highest in 15 years, markets have almost fully priced in another rise by mid-2027, and they do not expect rates to fall below current levels before mid-2028. Luke Yeaman of Commonwealth Bank warned that higher government spending would force the RBA to push rates harder, while Paul Bloxham of HSBC urged spending cuts after federal government spending reached 26.9 per cent of GDP in 2025/26. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has flagged further savings measures in the December update, though previously announced savings face resistance in parliament.

Mortgage holders should expect interest rates to stay high for longer, as the RBA warns that AI and data-centre investment is pushing up the neutral rate. Assistant governor Christopher Kent said there is reasonable evidence that neutral rates are rising in Australia and abroad. The cash rate sits at 4.6%, its highest in 15 years, and markets do not expect rates to fall below current levels before mid-2028. Commonwealth Bank economist Luke Yeaman argued that heavy government and AI spending makes rate hikes less effective, while HSBC's Paul Bloxham urged tighter fiscal policy ahead of the December update.

New Zealand's services sector kept expanding in September for a fourth straight month, though growth remained weak amid cost pressures and election uncertainty. The BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index edged down to 50.9 from 51 in August, still above the 50-point line separating expansion from contraction. Businesses remain cautious ahead of the Nov. 7 general election, citing fuel prices, interest rates and cost-of-living pressures. New orders and inventories were the strongest sub-indices, while employment and supplier deliveries were weak, highlighting a narrow recovery. BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said the expansion was notable after two years of contraction, but it lagged well behind manufacturing.

Japanese government bond yields eased on Monday morning as investors sought safety after losses in U.S. tech shares, with the 10-year yield at 2.9%, according to Reuters. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.1% and the S&P 500 lost 1.1% in Friday's U.S. session; AP linked the selloff to concern that companies borrowing to expand AI may struggle to sustain spending as global bond yields rise. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told parliament the government would manage the total amount of bond issuance. The Bank of Japan raised its uncollateralized overnight call rate target to around 1.25% from around 1% on Sept. 18, and Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation was “quite close” to the 2% target. The BOJ's next policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 29–30.

Gold prices in Dubai edged higher on Monday as traders pared bets on a US Federal Reserve rate hike later this month, after remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh were read as favoring a pause. 24-karat gold traded at Dh504.25 per gram and 22-karat at Dh467, while 14-karat stayed below Dh300. Spot gold rose 0.42 per cent to $4,177.78 an ounce and silver gained 1.31 per cent to $57.56, while the chance of a quarter-point Fed hike fell below 20%. Gold has held above $4,000 an ounce since August and has seen gold-backed ETF inflows for 13 straight weeks, though it is still down roughly 20% since the US-Iran conflict began in late February.

Mortgage holders should expect interest rates to stay high for longer, whether or not the RBA lifts them again. The RBA says intense global competition for capital from AI and data centre firms is pushing up its estimate of the neutral rate, and Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said there is reasonable evidence neutral rates are rising in Australia and abroad. At 4.6%, the cash rate is at its highest in 15 years; markets have scaled back bets on another hike, but a rise by mid-2027 is nearly fully priced in, and no fall below current levels is expected before mid-2028. Heavy government and AI-related spending may be reducing the effectiveness of rates, forcing the RBA to hit households harder, and Luke Yeaman of Commonwealth Bank warned that more government spending would be a serious mistake. HSBC's Paul Bloxham urged further federal spending cuts, as federal spending reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025/26, the highest level in 40 years excluding COVID-19.

SGI Capital says Vietnam's macro picture after the first three quarters of 2026 still shows bright spots, but the stock market enters the fourth quarter facing two risks: policy pressure and liquidity risk from margin leverage. After the FTSE upgrade, trading liquidity fell below VND 15,000 billion per session and foreign investors turned to heavy net selling, driven by fears of rising global inflation and interest rates. Margin debt at a historically high level is seen as a risk that could trigger forced-sale pressure as cash demand rises in the fourth quarter. Longer term, Circular 145/2026/TT-BTC, effective 16/11/2026, introduces CCP clearing and removes the 100% cash pre-funding (NPF) requirement for foreign institutional investors, which Hàn Hữu Hậu, CEO of Hy Maxpro, called an important upgrade.

Following directives from the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam, Agribank, Vietcombank, BIDV, ACB, LPBank and VietBank have simultaneously launched lending rate cut programmes, typically by 1.5-2 percentage points for priority sectors. Agribank will cut lending rates by up to 2% a year from October 19, with about VND 2,000 billion allocated, and continues a VND 70,000 billion preferential credit package. BIDV's preferential programme, starting October 15, 2026, offers loans from 6% a year on short-term VND lending across its system. Vietcombank has committed to cutting rates by at least 2% by year-end, while Sacombank will allocate VND 40,000 billion in preferential capital with a 2% reduction. VietBank is rolling out a VND 3,000 billion package with cuts of at least 1.5% a year until June 30, 2027.

Mortgage holders should expect interest rates to stay high for longer, whether or not the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises them again on Melbourne Cup day. The RBA says intense global competition for capital from AI and data centre companies is lifting the neutral rate, and Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said there is reasonable evidence neutral rates are rising in Australia and abroad. At 4.6%, the cash rate is the highest in 15 years; markets still almost fully price in another rise by mid-2027 and do not expect rates to fall before mid-2028. CBA chief economist Luke Yeaman said heavy government and AI spending makes rates less effective at curbing demand, while HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham urged the federal government to cut spending in its mid-year fiscal update in December.

Mortgage holders should expect interest rates to stay higher for longer, whether or not the RBA hikes again on Melbourne Cup day. Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said neutral rates are rising in Australia and abroad, driven by intense global competition for capital from AI and data centre companies. The cash rate is 4.6%, its highest in 15 years, and markets have almost fully priced in another rise by mid-2027 and do not expect rates to fall below current levels until at least mid-2028. The term premium has climbed to a 12-year high, tightening financial conditions. Federal government spending reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025/26, the highest in 40 years excluding COVID-19, which economists say is weakening the effectiveness of interest rates in curbing demand.

LPBank is rolling out a system-wide program to cut deposit and lending rates from October 19 to December 31, 2026, in line with directives from the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam. The bank will lower listed deposit rates by 0.5–0.6% per year for tenors of 6 months or more and by 0.05–0.1% per year for shorter tenors. It will also cut lending rates by 1.6–2% per year on new disbursements for short-term production and business loans, targeting individuals, household businesses, micro-enterprises and agriculture and rural areas. The move follows a meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Nguyễn Văn Thắng on October 16, 2026, and the SBV's October 18, 2026 directive asking credit institutions to cut lending rates and reduce operating costs.

Vietnam's top leaders are pressing banks to cut lending rates by 1.5-2 percentage points for priority sectors and to reduce deposit rates by at least 0.5 percentage point for maturities of six months or longer. Higher funding costs have pushed some deposit rates above 9% and floating mortgage rates as high as 12-19%, while outstanding credit reached about 20.75 quadrillion dong (US$800 billion) at end-September, up 11.6% year to date. Maybank Investment Bank Vietnam says lending rates have likely peaked and could ease toward a healthier 7-10%, while HSC cautions that preferential programmes should not be read as the start of a broader easing cycle. SSI Research estimates announced megaprojects could absorb at least 30% of net new bank credit between 2026 and 2030, even as the economy expanded more than 9% in the first nine months of 2026.

According to PGS.TS. Trần Hoàng Ngân, the State Bank's call to cut listed deposit rates by at least 0.5% per year for tenors of 6 months or more, and lending rates by 1.5–2% per year, is a boost for businesses at year-end. Outstanding credit to the whole economy exceeded 20.72 million billion VND as of October 14, 2026, up 11.44% from end-2025. On October 18, 2026, the SBV issued Official Dispatch No. 9608/NHNN-CSTT directing credit institutions to cut rates and costs, avoid deposit rate hikes and not lower credit standards. Some banks moved quickly: BIDV offered short-term VND loans from 6% per year from October 15, 2026, while Vietcombank committed to cut lending rates by at least 2% per year until year-end.

On 19 October 2026, State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Governor Pham Duc An chaired a meeting with top leaders of commercial banks on implementing operational measures. The SBV said that in the first 9 months of 2026 it ran monetary policy proactively and flexibly; as of 14 October 2026, outstanding credit to the economy reached VND 20,721,583 billion, up 11.44% from the end of last year and 16.73% year-on-year, with a credit growth orientation of 15%. Amid rising international tensions, including the Middle East conflict that pushed up oil prices, several central banks such as the Fed, ECB and BOJ raised rates, strengthening the US dollar. Commercial banks agreed to cut listed deposit rates by at least 0.5% per year for terms of 6 months or more, avoid bidding up deposit rates, and reduce lending rates by 1.5–2% per year, focusing on production, business and priority sectors.

SACOMBANK is rolling out a VND 40,000 billion preferential credit program in line with Government and State Bank of Vietnam directives, cutting lending rates by 2% per year to preferential rates from 8.5% per year. The program targets domestic enterprises in key industries, import-export companies and foreign-invested enterprises (FDI). Earlier, from 13 August 2026, the bank launched a program for import-export customers offering rate cuts of up to 2%, narrowing its profit margin from about 2.79% to 0.79%. From September 2026, it also supports business households facing cash-flow difficulties and home-loan customers, with rate cuts of up to 1.5–2% per year. The bank is also expanding cashless payment and digital cash-flow management services.

Rising interest rates threaten to derail the already fragile recovery in global commercial real estate, forcing many deals to be repriced sharply or put on hold. US 10-year Treasury yields have risen above 5.3%, up from about 4% at the end of February, driven by inflation linked to the Middle East conflict and climbing borrowing costs. Some investors are negotiating discounts of a few percent, including one company seeking a 5% cut on a $100 million industrial deal agreed three months ago. Office construction starts in the UK rose 23% in the third quarter, but on a rolling 12-month basis they remain near a 15-year low. Experts say the current price adjustment is less severe than in 2022.

Fannie Mae sharply raised its forecast for the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, now seeing about 7.4% in Q4 2026 and around 7.5% through 2027, up from 6.8% and 6.7% previously. The author argues the low pandemic-era rates were an anomaly created by extraordinary Federal Reserve intervention, and current rates reflect 3.7% inflation, over $40 trillion in federal debt and rising Treasury yields. On a $350,000 mortgage, the monthly principal and interest payment would be about $2,447 at 7.5% versus about $1,476 at 3%, nearly $1,000 more. Pending home sales fell 8.5% in September from a year earlier, a sign of affordability strain that the author says will force the housing market to adjust to the price of money.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has rejected criticism that she is responsible both for the weak yen and for pushing up interest rates. Speaking in parliament in response to opposition lawmaker Yoshifumi Hamano about a second supplementary budget, she said she clearly denied the accusations and that her government will build confidence in the yen through a strong economy. The yen has weakened to its lowest since 1986 and government bond yields have hit multi-decade highs, prompting Tokyo and even Washington to intervene in the currency market. Takaichi said she will appropriately control bond issuance, and Bloomberg reported that total issuance for 2026 will remain unchanged from the original budget plan, though experts were skeptical. Monex's Jesper Koll has said that spending cannot rise without increasing debt.

As of October 14, 2026, outstanding credit to the economy reached 20,721,583 billion dong, up 11.44% from the end of last year and 16.73% year-on-year. On the morning of October 19, State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Governor Phạm Đức Ấn met with chairs and CEOs of commercial banks, and the banks agreed to cut interest rates. Specifically, listed deposit rates for terms of 6 months or more will fall by at least 0.5%/year, while lending rates will drop by 1.5–2%/year, focusing on production, business and priority sectors. The backdrop includes Middle East conflict driving up oil prices, several major central banks raising rates and a stronger US dollar, all of which pressure Vietnam's monetary policy. The SBV also asks banks to channel credit into production and business while tightly controlling lending to risky sectors, including real estate.

This Dow Jones market headlines digest covers Ukraine's drone strike on a major Russian oil terminal and China's third-quarter economic growth of 4.5%, driven by exports. Putin has floated a summit with Trump and Xi on Ukraine that would exclude Zelensky, while Houthi attacks are making some Wall Street executives nervous about attending a Saudi investment conference. Other stories cover AI stock volatility, rising grocery and fuel prices, and silver's drop of more than 50% from its record high, which may signal an economic slowdown. China's $37 billion consumer subsidy program is boosting demand for smart gadgets, and markets expect the Fed to raise rates further even if it pauses, with a December hike in focus.

HSBC Mutual Fund said foreign outflows and rising global bond yields are likely to remain key headwinds for Indian markets, while corporate earnings growth is expected to drive equity returns in the near term. The Nifty 50 fell 6 per cent in September, with the Nifty Midcap 150 down 7.1 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 250 down 3.1 per cent; IT and auto were the worst-performing sectors, falling 11 per cent and 9 per cent. Foreign institutional investors pulled USD 4.1 billion in September, taking their 2026 net selling to USD 28.3 billion, while domestic institutions bought a net USD 8.1 billion. The RBI raised its repo rate to 5.50 per cent on October 7, and HSBC expects a further rise to 6 per cent if inflation worsens or global rates stay elevated. The Nifty 50 trades at 17 times one-year forward earnings, about 13 per cent below its five-year average valuation.

Maybank says lending rates may have peaked after a 16 October meeting in which a deputy minister and banks pledged to cut priority-sector lending rates by 150-200 basis points. The State Bank also asked banks to cut deposit rates for 6-month and longer terms by at least 50 basis points, and BIDV, Vietcombank and Agribank pledged 200 basis point loan cuts through the end of 2026. However, reductions will be uneven across sectors, the conditions for the loan packages have not been disclosed, and a sustainable broad decline to a reasonable level of around 7-10% would require lower capital costs across the system. Longer term, based on Maybank's review of past rating upgrades, achieving investment-grade status could cut Vietnam's foreign borrowing costs by 150-250 basis points, and Maybank expects the upgrade to be accelerated in 2027.

At the midday update on 19/10, domestic gold prices fell across the board by 500–800 thousand VND per tael. Early on 19/10, gold bars at SJC, PNJ, DOJI and Bao Tin Manh Hai were quoted at 140.6–143.6 million VND per tael, while Bao Tin Minh Chau was at 138.6–143.6 million. From 16/10, gold businesses must use non-cash payment for buy and sell transactions of 5 million VND or more per day under Decree 390/2026/NĐ-CP. Internationally, gold traded around 4,160–4,180 USD per ounce as investors watched U.S. economic data and the Fed's rate outlook, and the market still leans toward the Fed holding rates at its October 27–28 meeting. S&P Global's preliminary October composite PMI is being watched as a signal of inflation pressure.

China's economy is likely to have grown 4.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, up from 4.3% in the second quarter, which was the weakest pace in more than three years, according to a Reuters poll. That still falls short of the 4.6% forecast in a July poll and below the official 4.5%–5% target, with strong exports and tech-goods demand masking weak consumption and private investment. The trade surplus widened more than expected in September and is on track to top last year's record US$1.2 trillion, likely heightening trade tensions with partners such as the EU. Beijing has added targeted rate cuts, mortgage subsidies and 550 billion yuan in unused debt quotas, and ING's Lynn Song sees room for more support to boost jobs, incomes and domestic demand. Analysts polled by Reuters expect benchmark lending rates to stay unchanged through the first quarter of 2027.

HSBC Mutual Fund said Indian equities saw a broad-based correction in September amid higher crude prices, Middle East tensions and tighter monetary policy in major economies. The Nifty 50 fell 6%, the Nifty Midcap 150 dropped 7.1% and the Nifty Smallcap 250 fell 3.1%. Foreign institutional investors pulled USD 4.1 billion in September, taking their 2026 net selling to USD 28.3 billion, while domestic institutions bought USD 8.1 billion. The fund expects corporate earnings to drive returns but flags higher global bond yields and commodity prices as risks, and sees the RBI's repo rate, raised to 5.50% on October 7, possibly reaching 6% if inflation worsens. The Nifty 50 trades at 17 times one-year forward earnings, about 13% below its five-year average valuation.

Haxaco (HAX, HoSE) reported net profit of nearly 3.6 billion VND in Q3/2026, reversing a loss of nearly 25.8 billion VND a year earlier. Net revenue for the quarter reached nearly 1,391.8 billion VND, up 21%, while gross profit rose 112% to nearly 126.4 billion VND. Financial expenses climbed from nearly 9.2 billion VND to nearly 28 billion VND. However, total liabilities at period-end rose 107% from the start of the year to over 2,293.3 billion VND, with short-term borrowings and finance leases of nearly 1,640 billion VND. Operating cash flow for the first nine months was negative by more than 460.2 billion VND, and nine-month interest expense of nearly 61.8 billion VND was more than double the prior-year figure.

On 19/10/2026, Governor Phạm Đức Ấn chaired a meeting with deputy governors, the Association of Banks and leaders of 46 commercial banks on banking operations. He said that as of last weekend, deposit mobilization had grown 11.22% and credit 11.44%, and the VND gap between loans and deposits had narrowed to below 1.5 quadrillion dong from nearly 2 quadrillion. Dispatch No. 9608/NHNN-CSTT requires credit institutions to cut listed deposit rates by at least 0.5% per year for terms of six months or more, and to reduce lending rates by 1.5–2% per year for production, business and priority sectors. Cuts must match each bank's financial capacity, be tied to cost reductions and profit sharing, avoid across-the-board moves, and apply to both existing and new loans.

Carvana (CVNA) sold 197,325 vehicles in the second quarter, up 38% from a year earlier, with record revenue of $7.38 billion and net income of $513 million. Higher interest rates are squeezing profit per car, as the spread the company earns on auto loans narrows when benchmark rates rise faster than customer APRs. Morgan Stanley kept its Overweight rating but cut its price target to $88 from $90 and its adjusted EBITDA estimate by 2% to $797 million. It models third-quarter Other GPU of $2,565 and calls the quarter a potential “clearing event” that could reset expectations before growth returns to focus. Carvana shares are down 30.30% year-to-date ahead of its October 28 report.

According to the rate schedule posted the morning of October 19, 12-month at-branch deposit rates at these five banks range from 5.3% to 6.9% a year, with VPBank highest at 6.9% and ACB lowest at 5.3%. On a VND 200 million deposit, at-branch interest would be between VND 10.6 million and VND 13.8 million, a VND 3.2 million gap between VPBank and ACB. Online, rates range from 5.8% to 7.1%; VPBank again leads with VND 14.2 million, while ACB is lowest at VND 11.6 million. These figures assume interest is paid at maturity, the deposit is held for the full 12 months, and there is no early withdrawal; actual rates may vary by time, product and each bank's conditions.

At the State Bank of Vietnam's meeting with top commercial bank executives on the morning of 19/10, ACB General Director Từ Tiến Phát said the bank would immediately implement the government's and central bank's directives. ACB will cut rates on its deposit rate table from today, effective the next day, and launch a special lending program reducing loan rates by 1.5% to 2% for businesses. He said its earlier program, a 1% rate cut, had disbursed about VND 5,000 billion so far. He described the central bank's warning that non-compliant banks could face reduced credit growth targets as a strong message that reinforces market discipline. He also expressed confidence that the State Bank will keep monetary policy flexible to support the system.

Vietbank is launching a VND 3,000 billion preferential credit package with interest rates at least 1.5% per year lower than usual, effective from October 19, 2026 until June 30, 2027 or until the quota runs out, and cutting deposit rates by 0.5% per year for terms of 6 months or longer. The move is in line with government and State Bank directives to lower lending rates, after Deputy Prime Minister Nguyễn Văn Thắng asked for cuts of 1.5–2% for production, business and priority sectors. A separate VND 600 billion quota for agriculture, forestry and fisheries carries rates at least 1% per year below the average short-term lending rate, fixed for the loan term. For home buyers, the An Cư Thịnh Vượng package finances up to 100% of capital needs with terms of up to 30 years, while the bank also waives or reduces some service fees.

Gold rose on Monday as investors scaled back expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October following remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Spot gold climbed 0.2% to $4,173.59 per ounce, silver, platinum and palladium also gained, and traders cut the probability of a 25-basis-point hike below 20%. Gold has held above $4,000 since August but remains about 20% below its level before the U.S.-Iran conflict began in February. ANZ sees fiscal concerns, Chinese demand and central bank diversification supporting gold over the longer term, while elevated yields and dollar strength limit near-term upside, and it forecasts bullion could exceed $5,000 per ounce in 2027.

On the morning of 19 October, Governor Phạm Đức Ấn chaired a meeting with commercial banks at the State Bank of Vietnam, requiring chairpersons and CEOs to attend in person rather than send deputies. As of the end of last week, deposit mobilization rose 11.22% and credit grew 11.44%, indicating faster capital demand. The governor said the stable exchange rate supports confidence in the dong and continued foreign investment, even as several major economies raise interest rates to fight inflation. Banks were told to cut deposit rates for terms of 6 months and above by at least 0.5% a year and to reduce lending rates for production and priority sectors by 1.5–2%, while avoiding unhealthy rate competition.

China's GDP grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, up from 4.3% in the second quarter and above the 4.4% expected in a Reuters poll, as strong foreign demand for technology goods offset weakness in property and consumption. The monthly trade surplus hit a record $133.5 billion. Still, September retail sales rose 1.1%, beating forecasts, while urban fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months and real estate investment dropped 20.6%, pointing to weak domestic demand. Producer prices rose 5% in September, the fastest pace in over four years, while consumer inflation stayed below 1%, limiting firms' ability to raise prices. One economist forecasts full-year growth of 4.7%, and economists largely expect the People's Bank of China to keep benchmark lending rates unchanged this year.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,173.59 an ounce on Monday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks were read as supporting a hold at next week’s meeting. Traders cut the implied chance of a rate hike to below 20%, reversing the revived hike bets that followed a stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation reading. Gold has stayed above $4,000 an ounce since August, but it is down about a fifth since the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted in late February. ANZ sees gold’s upside capped in the short term, though it expects prices to top $5,000 an ounce in 2027, supported by Chinese investors and central-bank diversification.

Columnist Tope Fasoranti argues that the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) 350-basis-point cut in the Monetary Policy Rate, from 26.5% to 23% on September 22, 2026, was a decisive and well-timed call. The standing deposit facility rate fell by 200 basis points to 20%, and the overnight rate closed the week to September 25 at 20.77% according to Cordros Research, so the rest of the cut mainly realigns the official signal with prevailing market rates. Real rates remain higher than a year ago: with headline inflation at 15.39%, the 23% MPR implies a real rate of about 7.6 points, versus about 4.4 points in August 2025. Applying the Taylor rule gives an illustrative range of roughly 17% to 24%, with the new rate toward the cautious end, as core inflation has moderated for three consecutive months from 16.82% in May to 13.29% in August.

According to Rightmove, asking prices for homes newly listed in London rose 2.5% between September 12 and October 10, while Inner London rose 3.9%, unlike the national decline of 0.1%. London's rise followed a weak summer, when asking prices fell 6% across July and August, and sellers hope to capitalize on buyers wanting to move before Christmas. Rising mortgage rates have added about £250 to new mortgage payments since February, and sales agreed were 8% lower and buyer inquiries 9% lower than a year earlier. Listings remain at their highest level for this time of year since 2014, 38% of homes have had price cuts, and offers take 78 days (11 weeks) on average to be accepted. Rightmove suggests some London sellers may be too optimistic on price.

A UNDP report, 'No Time to Recover', warns that developing economies face compounding crises from the Middle East conflict, rising energy prices, an El Niño expected to be the strongest on record, and interest rates at multi-decade highs, all while fiscal buffers are depleted. UNDP administrator Alexander De Croo said the cost of bond financing for developing countries is 9%, 'really, really high', and sees no light at the end of the tunnel for fuel prices, El Niño or bond markets. The World Bank says poverty in the MENAAP region remains above pre-pandemic levels, with Pakistan accounting for nearly half of the region's extreme poor. The IMF warned the global economy 'could soon test the limits of resilience' as emergency oil stocks run low and high debt leaves governments with little room to protect consumers from future price jumps.

Agribank was honored at the WSBI-ESBG SDG Awards 2026 in the 'Inclusive Banking and Social Impact' category for its 'Sustainable business with women-led enterprises' initiative, its second consecutive year in this category. The initiative offers a short-term preferential credit program of VND 5,000 billion, with interest rates up to 0.7% per year below the standard lending floor, to help women-led businesses access stable capital at reasonable cost. Agribank was also recognized in this category in 2025 for its Agribank Plus platform. The bank's representatives also attended the WSBI Asian Regional Group Meeting 2026, discussing digital transformation, artificial intelligence and cybersecurity with peers.

Domestic gold bar and ring prices fell 500–800 thousand VND per tael across SJC, PNJ, DOJI, Bảo Tín Minh Châu and Bảo Tín Mạnh Hải in the midday update on October 19. Early that morning, gold bars at SJC, PNJ, DOJI and Bảo Tín Mạnh Hải were quoted at 140.6–143.6 million VND per tael, while Bảo Tín Minh Châu quoted 138.6–143.6 million. From October 16, gold purchases and sales of 5 million VND or more in a day must be paid by non-cash means under Decree 390/2026/NĐ-CP. Internationally, gold traded around 4,160–4,180 USD per ounce as investors watched US economic data and the Fed's rate outlook ahead of its October 27–28 meeting. The market still leans toward the Fed holding rates steady, but persistent inflation keeps expectations of a rate hike before year-end elevated.

From October 16, gold purchases and sales of 5 million VND or more in a day must be paid by non-cash means, down from the previous 20 million VND threshold. Ten companies go ex-dividend in the week of October 19–23, with Vimico standing out for an advance dividend of about 900 billion VND. Brent crude spiked to 110 USD per barrel during the October 16 session amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Deputy Prime Minister Nguyễn Văn Thắng asked banks to cut lending rates by 1.5–2%, while residents' deposits at banks reached over 11.43 million billion VND by end-August, up 10.6% from the start of the year.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers attended the IMF-World Bank meetings and the G20 finance ministers' gathering in Bangkok while facing domestic political pressure. The Nine papers report growing concern within the Reserve Bank of Australia that fallout from the Iran war will keep inflation high and push interest rates higher.