The S&P 500 has risen in 21 of the last 23 midterm election cycles, averaging a 7% return from one month before to two months after the vote, according to Bloomberg and Deutsche Bank data. The exception was 2018, when it fell more than 10%, while the largest gain came in 1998. The author argues this time may differ because many stocks have very high valuations and the ongoing war with Iran adds economic and geopolitical risks. The author is not optimistic about a big rally in the coming months and sees a decline as more likely, though long-term investors may keep index fund positions and those needing stability may consider dividend-paying defensive stocks.
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/12/2026 | 778.10 |
| Change that session | -0.06% |
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/12/2026 | 746.04 |
| Change that session | -0.70% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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