Economist Jim Paulsen says his 'Walmart Recession Signal', which compares Walmart's stock with a group of stocks tied to wealthier consumers, has been rising again since August after nearing its 2008 record high. He argues lower-income households feel recessions first, and Walmart, which caters to them, has outperformed the luxury index by roughly 21% since August, while Deutsche Bank said inflation is attracting more customers to the retailer. Walmart's second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue reached $187.94B, up 5.9%, and its stock traded at $118.59 on Friday. Paulsen says the signal may suggest the Fed will have to pause before raising rates again, after the Fed lifted its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 17, 2026. He expects no recession or full bear market this year, but warns of a possible 'fairly nasty correction' in high-flying stocks, and acknowledges the signal is imperfect.
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Original headline: In 2008 , The Walmart Recession Signal Neared A Record As The Market Collapsed . One Economist Says It Is Starting To Rise Again
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- In 2008 , The Walmart Recession Signal Neared A Record As The Market Collapsed . One Economist Says It Is Starting To Rise Again
Economist Jim Paulsen says his "Walmart Recession Signal", the ratio of Walmart stock to stocks tied to wealthier consumers, has risen again since August after nearing a record high in 2008. Walmart's second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue reached $187.94B, up 5.9%, with share gains led by upper-income households. Paulsen says the gains suggest the Fed may need to pause before raising rates again, following its September 17, 2026 increase to 3.75%–4.00%, though he calls the signal imperfect. Unemployment stands at 4.2%, up from 4.1% in August, and the signal has not always coincided with sharp jumps in joblessness.
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The article argues Micron Technology is worth holding through a recession, even as oil prices, rising interest rates and 24-year highs for 10-year Treasuries have made investors defensive. Its large customers, such as Microsoft with $35.8 billion in fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter net income and $76.8 billion in cash, are still ramping up AI infrastructure spending. Micron's fourth-quarter revenue rose 31% sequentially and 379% year over year, and it expects a stronger fiscal 2027 backed by multi-year agreements with large customers. The author views the recent pullback, triggered by a Chinese memory chipmaker's efficiency claims, as unjustified, comparing it to the DeepSeek-driven AI stock selloff in January 2025. With a forward P/E of 7, the author considers the stock one of the most undervalued in the market.
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More than five million people have lost SNAP food assistance since the One Big Beautiful Bill passed, and the grocery industry is starting to feel the impact. Kroger announced on October 13 that it will lay off 3,000 corporate employees over three years, and CEO Greg Foran said some of that work will be partly automated with AI tools. According to Numerator, Kroger lost more than $12 billion in packaged goods spending to Amazon, Walmart and Costco over the past year, while lower-income shoppers cut their packaged goods spending by 5.2% and made 30 million fewer trips. The law shifted 75% of SNAP administrative costs to the states, and the Urban Institute projects 22.3 million of 42 million families will lose some or all benefits. Analysts warn that independent and rural grocers could close, creating more food deserts.
- The Rockefellers Will Pay No Estate Tax Again This Generation Because Nobody Technically Owns the Money . In 2026 One Couple Will Be Able to Seed the Same Trust With $30 Million .
The article argues that the Rockefeller family has used irrevocable trusts set up in 1934 to keep wealth out of estate taxes across generations, since beneficiaries hold interests while the trustee holds title. It says newer families must use their exemption to get comparable protection, because the generation-skipping transfer tax applies to trusts created after the grandfathered date. For 2026 the basic exclusion is $15,000,000 per person, so a married couple can combine exemptions to fund a dynasty trust with $30 million without gift or GST tax. By contrast, it calculates that leaving the same $30 million outright through two generations at a 40% estate tax rate would cost $19.2 million. The trade-off, it says, is that lifetime gifts keep the original cost basis instead of a step-up at death.
- The Rockefellers Will Pay No Estate Tax Again This Generation Because Nobody Technically Owns the Money. In 2026 One Couple Will Be Able to Seed the Same Trust With $30 Million.
In 2026, a married couple can combine two $15 million GST exemptions to seed a dynasty trust with $30 million, paying no gift or transfer tax, as the basic exclusion amount rises from $13,990,000 in 2025. Because beneficiaries hold interests while the trustee holds title, the principal stays outside their taxable estates, the structure the Rockefeller family has used since 1934. By contrast, leaving $30 million outright to children and then grandchildren would shrink to $10.8 million after two generations at a 40% estate tax rate, losing $19.2 million. The article notes a trade-off: assets gifted during life keep the original cost basis instead of the step-up received at death, so low-basis assets are better kept in the estate. Missing the Form 709 GST exemption allocation filing alone could expose the entire trust principal to a 40% generation-skipping tax rate.
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