Memory semiconductor stocks have fallen 19% from their September peak, nearly back to their July lows, but UBS analysts argue concerns about future supply and competition may be overstated. UBS cites an average estimated free cash flow yield of 29% for 2027-2030 across its coverage excluding China's CXMT, names Samsung Electronics its top pick, and keeps buy ratings on all memory stocks it covers. Demand for server DDR5 memory and Nvidia's SOCAMM modules is strengthening, while UBS estimates HBM shipments will rise 49% year on year in 2027. UBS sees concerns about CXMT adopting advanced DRAM technology as premature, but flags that Samsung could add more than 150,000 wafer starts per month of DRAM capacity in 2028, a change unlikely to materially affect supply and demand before late 2028. UBS also said the recent share-price correction should push memory makers to raise shareholder returns.
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