News about retail

During the week of October 12–16, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) rose 5%, its best week since February, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 1.97% and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) dropped 5.5%. Cracker Barrel (CBRL) gained 20% on the week, extending a 171% year-to-date surge after a leadership change and the reversal of an unpopular rebrand; its fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.99 beat the $0.18 estimate. Signet Jewelers (SIG) rose 12.6% on reports it is in advanced talks to join a consortium buying De Beers, and VF Corp. (VFC) gained 12% after Truist upgraded it to Buy. On the downside, Kandi Technologies (KNDI) plunged 38% to a near six-year low as it announced a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, Six Flags (FUN) fell 29% to a six-year low after a visitor's death at its Georgia park, and Newsmax (NMAX) lost over 15%.

Costco will open its first Málaga store in spring 2027, but membership registration opened Monday, October 19, at a temporary office in the Málaga Nostrum retail park. Annual fees are around €36 for individuals and €30 for businesses and the self-employed. New members who sign up early get a €10 voucher usable within 30 days of the Málaga opening, immediate access to Costco shops and petrol stations in Spain, and an annual renewal extended to spring 2028. The store will cover more than 12,000 square metres, with 5,811 square metres for the general sales area, plus sections for meat, dairy, produce, fish, frozen foods and bakery.

The Producer Price Index rose 1.3% in September, its largest monthly gain since March 2022, and is running at an annual rate of 6.3%, far above the roughly 0.6% economists expected. Wholesale energy prices jumped 10.8% and producer-level gasoline surged 20.3%, while final demand goods rose 2.6%, the largest monthly increase since the series began in 2009. Retail sales rose 0.8% in September, but excluding gasoline they increased just 0.2%. The author argues inflation has not been defeated, pointing to a 3.7% CPI reading and cost pressures spreading through the economy.

The article compares Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) as 2026 investments, weighing Amazon's high-growth tech, e-commerce and cloud businesses against Walmart's stable physical retail base. For fiscal 2025, Amazon reported revenue of about $716.9 billion, up roughly 12.4%, and net income of about $77.7 billion, with $122.9 billion in cash against $251.6 billion in debt. Walmart's fiscal 2026 revenue reached about $713.2 billion, up 4.7%, with net income of about $21.9 billion, $11.5 billion in cash and $75 billion in debt. The author would choose Amazon for its 28% share of the global cloud market and its role in AI infrastructure, while noting Walmart's AI shopping assistant Sparky and a 23% rise in global e-commerce sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2027. Both face risks, from Amazon's antitrust proceedings to Walmart's exposure to tariffs and geopolitical instability.

Industrial output in China rose 5.5% year on year in September, above the 5.4% forecast and up from 5.2% in August, while retail sales of consumer goods grew 1.1%, more than double the expected 0.5%. The NBS manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.1 from 49.8, back above the 50-point expansion threshold. Third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% year on year, beating the 4.4% forecast, and the urban unemployment rate eased to 5.2% from 5.3%. Investment remained weak, with fixed-asset investment down 7.2% over January to September and real estate development investment down 20.6%, while services sales rose 5.0% against 1.0% for goods over the first nine months.

Costco (COST) and Walmart (WMT) have returned -0.71% and -5.38%, respectively, over the six months to October 15. Costco keeps customers returning through its membership model, low prices and the Kirkland Signature brand, while Walmart can grow its e-commerce, advertising and third-party marketplace by leveraging its large customer base and store network. Costco posted fiscal 2026 revenue of $303.2 billion, including $5.9 billion from membership fees, and net income up 14% to $9.2 billion; it ended the year with 84.1 million paid members and a 92.3% renewal rate in the US and Canada. In fiscal Q2 2027, Walmart's global e-commerce sales rose 23% and advertising rose 38%, yet Walmart US comparable sales grew only 2.6%. Costco trades at 40.32x forward earnings versus 38.02x for Walmart.

Dutch Bros (BROS) trades 52% below its record high, even though the coffee chain has grown quickly through small-format and drive-through locations. Bulls point to store growth: the company had 1,225 locations as of June 30, up 17% from a year earlier, and management sees room for 7,000 stores, almost six times its current footprint. Same-store sales have grown for 13 straight quarters, and analysts project revenue will rise 97% from 2025 to 2028. Bears point to a crowded market with low barriers to entry and no switching costs for customers, which makes a durable moat hard to prove. Dutch Bros also faces scale competition from Starbucks, McDonald's and Dunkin' in real estate, marketing and sourcing, plus smaller rivals such as 7 Brew and Biggby Coffee.

Bain & Co projects holiday retail sales in 2026 to approach $1 trillion, with the typical American household expected to spend about $900 on gifts, decorations and food. Mastercard forecasts the strongest holiday retail growth in four years, yet 77% of Americans plan to change their shopping habits due to rising prices, and 35% feel less financially stable than a year ago. Many consumers are still paying off last year's holiday debt, as more than one-third took on holiday credit card debt in 2025, averaging about $1,223 per person according to Capwolf.com. The article advises setting a holiday budget by category, tracking spending, and focusing on low-cost ways to give, such as visiting seniors, writing handwritten letters or supporting a family in need.

USA Financial Formulas bought a new position of 2,037 Costco Wholesale shares in the third quarter, according to its 13F filing with the SEC, worth about $1,854,000. The stake makes up roughly 0.4% of the fund's portfolio and is its 19th-largest holding. The article also reports two insider sales: EVP William Richard Wilcox sold 1,100 shares at an average $958.21 on October 13th, a 26.23% reduction in his position, while EVP Claudine Adamo sold 2,200 shares at $915.93 on September 29th, a 23.57% cut. Costco reported September net sales of $30.02 billion, up 13% year over year, with digitally enabled sales up 19%. Per MarketBeat, 24 analysts rate the stock Buy, eight Hold and one Sell, with a consensus price target of $1,087.40, and Costco declared a quarterly dividend of $1.47 per share.

The author sees Amazon and Costco as retail stocks worth owning before the holiday season, with Thanksgiving falling on Nov. 26. Amazon's fourth-quarter 2025 net sales reached $213.4 billion, up 14%, and revenue growth accelerated to 17% in Q1 and 20% in Q2 2026. Amazon shares trade near $254, about 11% below the $284.02 record close on Aug. 3, and at roughly 24 times analysts' 2027 earnings estimates. Costco's fiscal second-quarter 2026 net sales rose 9.1% to $68.2 billion, comparable sales grew 6.7% and accelerated to 7.6% in September, and membership fees of about $5.9 billion equal roughly half of operating income. The author considers Amazon the better buy today, while Costco at around $986, or about 47 times fiscal 2026 earnings, should be bought in pieces rather than as a full stake now.