Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment, said on CNBC that he is long oil and believes prices could rally another $20 or $25 because of the U.S.-Iran conflict. Such a move would take U.S. crude above its 2026 closing high of just under $113 per barrel, from around $92.50 on Tuesday morning. He said equities would “absolutely totally hate it,” though the S&P 500 fell only just over 7% at its late-March trough after the war began on Feb. 28. Jones also sees 2027 as a difficult year for stocks as investors absorb larger equity supply from megacap IPOs such as Anthropic and OpenAI. He expects President Donald Trump to pursue a peace plan after the midterm elections, calling the current situation untenable.
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Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones says he is long oil and that crude could rally another $20 to $25 a barrel, though he expects stocks to 'hate it.' He suspects President Donald Trump could take a tougher approach to Iran after the Nov. 3 midterm elections, with WTI trading near $94 on Tuesday. Jones sees a strong fourth quarter as possible based on midterm patterns, but compares today's AI-driven market to 1999 and warns 2027 could be very challenging as IPOs and insider sales add to share supply. Goldman Sachs forecasts $600 billion in new stock issuance next year and $1.7 trillion in previously restricted shares becoming eligible for sale, but it expects $1.7 trillion in corporate buybacks and believes the rally will continue.
- Does Paul Tudor Jones Know Something Wall Street Doesn't? The Billionaire Says It's 1999 All Over and That 2027 Is Going to Be 'Really, Really Challenging' for the Market.
Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, who founded Tudor Investment in 1980, says the market resembles 1999 on the eve of the dot-com bust and that 2027 will be 'really, really challenging' for stocks. His main concern is investment flows: after subtracting IPOs, secondary offerings and IPO lock-up expirations, he sees the most negative U.S. stock flow picture since 2002, as the corporate support from buybacks and M&A has shifted. He also flags AI safety as a risk that could weigh on valuations. The S&P 500 is around 7,800, and strategists' price targets include 8,700 from Goldman Sachs, 9,000 from Jefferies and 8,800 from Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Jones expects a possible bounce after the midterms but a tougher 2027, while the article says long-term retail investors can ride out volatility and holders of many individual AI stocks should review valuations and risks.
- Paul Tudor Jones Says He’ll Be Short Stocks All of 2027
Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones told live television he will be short stocks for all of 2027, and his reason is the supply of shares rather than earnings or valuations. He argues that as locked-up shares of private companies are released and large offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI, following SpaceX, reach the market, investors will have to absorb many more new shares, though no terms for these deals have been announced. He also expects oil to rise another $20 to $25 after the midterms, which would keep the 10-year Treasury yield, at 5.24%, high. Meanwhile, SPY closed at $778.05, less than 0.5% below its 52-week high of $781.62 and up 14.09% year to date, showing a muted market reaction. The article stresses that his forecast targets 2027 and depends on offerings that have not yet been filed.
- Paul Tudor Jones says 2027 could be a really challenging year for the stock market
Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC that 2027 could be a very challenging year for the stock market, as a wave of big tech IPOs and AI-related share offerings from Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX adds equity supply after buybacks and M&A supported the four-year bull run. He said U.S. stock flows are the most negative since 2002 and compared the current market to 1999. He pointed to the widening gap between AI winners and other companies, along with a ballooning fiscal deficit, and estimated a 60-40 chance the market is already forcing policy change through higher taxes or spending cuts. Jones also expects oil could rally another $20 to $25 after the midterms, and said he will be short the whole year.
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Oil prices fell on Tuesday as investors weighed prospects of more Russian energy reaching global markets, with Brent down 1.48% to $105.05 a barrel and WTI down 1.57% to $92.27. President Donald Trump defended a temporary six-month easing of restrictions on Russian diesel supplies despite bipartisan criticism that it could undermine sanctions over the war in Ukraine. Goldman Sachs said an extra 800,000 metric tons of Russian diesel would lower wholesale diesel prices in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Europe by only $1 to $2 a barrel, as global diesel markets remain tight, with U.S. inventories down 14% and visible Chinese stocks down 11% year on year. Losses were limited by concerns over the Saudi-Houthi conflict, after a Houthi attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport on Saturday left 12 people dead and more than 300 injured.
- Chart alert : Dow Jones bullish catch - up over Nasdaq 100 as AI rotation accelerates
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.46% from the start of October through 15 October, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 (-1.86%) by 4.32 percentage points. The article attributes the shift to investors rotating out of AI-linked semiconductor and infrastructure stocks, where the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 9.73%, toward healthcare and consumer stocks. For the week, the Dow rose 1.0% to 52,183, while the S&P 500 fell 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.1%. September core CPI rose to 2.7% year-on-year, above forecasts, lifting expectations of an October Fed rate hike to around 30%. Technically, the US Wall Street 30 CFD has broken out of a multi-month descending channel, with 51,950 cited as key support and a break above 52,390 opening the way to 52,687 and 53,100.
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