The author argues IonQ, worth about $12.5 billion, could be overtaken by other companies by 2031. IonQ has $3 billion in cash and bought chipmaker SkyWater Technology for about $1.08 billion in July, but trailing revenue is about $246 million against a net loss above $1.4 billion, and its stock has lost half its value in a year. The author picks Planet Labs (PL), which reported 58% revenue growth for the quarter ended July 31, a $815 million backlog and a market value of about $5 billion, and says it needs roughly 2.5x growth in five years to pass IonQ. The second pick is Oklo (OKLO), whose first plant at Idaho National Laboratory is planned to start in 2028, and which has a prepayment agreement with Meta for a 1.2-gigawatt campus in Ohio with a first phase as early as 2030, even though its stock has fallen over 75% in a year. The article also notes risks, including Planet Labs’ reliance on government budgets and roughly $450 million of debt, and the possibility that Oklo delays its timeline or keeps diluting shareholders.
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