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Sandisk's Sales Fell 38% in the Last Flash Memory Downturn, and Its Oct. 29 Report Is the Next Test

Three years ago, Sandisk was selling flash memory below cost. In fiscal 2023, revenue fell 38% and gross margin dropped from 33.3% to 7.1%, leading to a net loss of about $2.1 billion. By contrast, fiscal Q4 2026 revenue rose 51% sequentially to $8.97 billion, about two-thirds driven by higher prices, with gross margin at 84.6%. Guidance for fiscal Q1 2027 points to revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of 83% to 85%, suggesting slower growth. The author says the October 29 report will show whether pricing still lifts revenue and whether margins hold, as TrendForce expects NAND contract prices to rise another 15% to 20% in the October-to-December quarter. Though shares sit about 30% below their 52-week high, the author argues the stock still reflects risk of falling profits and wants margins to hold through a quarter of falling flash prices before buying.

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