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- If the Bond Market Sell-Off Triggers a Recession, Decades of History Says Investors Should Do This 1 Thing
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen from about 4.03% a year ago to about 5.24% as of Oct. 11, its highest level since 2002, as bond investors demand higher yields amid U.S. national debt that has passed $40 trillion. Higher yields raise borrowing costs for consumers and businesses and can hit sectors such as homebuilding and auto loans, and if they rise fast enough they could contribute to a recession, though the article stresses this is not guaranteed. It notes the current 10-year yield of 5.22% is still 56 basis points below its 50-year average, and the S&P 500 has averaged 9.98% annual returns since 1928 while recovering from every past recession, crisis and crash. The article's main message is to stay cautious about bond yields without overreacting, and to keep a long-term perspective.
- The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning Not Seen in Decades , and History Says Investors Should Buckle Up
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently crossed 5.3% for the first time since 2002, and the 30-year yield stands at 5.57%. The author attributes the high yields mainly to persistent inflation, with CPI rising from 3% when Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 to 3.4% today, despite his campaign pledge to end inflation. A $1.99 trillion fiscal 2026 deficit on top of $40.3 trillion in national debt, plus a surge in corporate borrowing to fund AI infrastructure, adds bond supply that pushes yields higher. The article compares this with 1987 before Black Monday, 2000 before the dot-com bust, and 1994, when the S&P 500 still finished the year down by less than 2%. It notes that the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio is closer to its early-2000 level than ever before, though corporate earnings growth remains strong.
- The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning Not Seen in Decades , and History Says Investors Should Buckle Up
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently crossed 5.3% for the first time since 2002, and the 30-year bond yields 5.57%. The author attributes the rise to persistent inflation (CPI now 3.4%), a $1.99 trillion fiscal 2026 deficit, heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure, and weaker foreign demand for Treasuries. The author compares this with 1987, when yields surged before Black Monday, and 1999 to 2000, when 10-year yields topped 6% before the dot-com bubble burst; in 1994, by contrast, the S&P 500 ended down less than 2% despite rising yields. Valuations are near early-2000 levels, but earnings growth remains strong, as in 1994. The author suggests reducing exposure to stocks hurt by yields above 5%, such as utilities and REITs, and increasing exposure to banks, some energy stocks and blue-chip dividend stocks, while noting a downturn is not a foregone conclusion.
- The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning Not Seen in Decades, and History Says Investors Should Buckle Up
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently topped 5.3% for the first time since 2002, and the 30-year yield sits at 5.57%. The article blames persistent inflation (CPI at 3.4%, up from 3% when Trump returned to the White House in January 2025), a $1.99 trillion fiscal 2026 deficit on top of $40.3 trillion in national debt, heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure, and weaker foreign demand for Treasuries. It compares this with the 1987 Black Monday crash and the dot-com bust that followed 10-year yields above 6%, while noting that in 1994 the S&P 500 still ended down less than 2%. With the Shiller CAPE ratio near its early-2000 level, the author suggests reducing exposure to capital-intensive utilities and REITs and considering banks, some energy stocks and blue-chip dividend stocks, while stressing that a major downturn is not certain.
- Tom Lee Says Investors Should Be ‘Jumping Into’ AI, Semiconductor, Mag 7 Stocks Amid Sell-Off
- The Next AI Stock Wall Street Is Starting to Pay Attention To
Arm Holdings is up 122.44% year to date despite a 19.64% drop over the past week, trading at $243.15. Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue reached $1.289 billion, up 22.4% and above the $1.267 billion consensus, though GAAP EPS of $0.25 missed expectations, while non-GAAP EPS of 45 cents beat the top of guidance and demand for its Arm AGI CPU was said to exceed $2 billion. The 24/7 Wall St. 12-month target is $247.55 (1.81% upside), with a hold rating; the bull case reaches $416.44 and the bear case $200.29. Risks include a trailing P/E of about 302x, a GAAP operating margin that fell to 7% from 11%, and a Qualcomm trial expected in Q4 2026.
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- CoreWeave Dropped 20% Last Week. Is It Time to Panic or Buy?
CoreWeave shares fell more than 20% as of Oct. 16, driven mainly by concerns over debt and spending. The company carries about $35 billion in total debt against $5.5 billion in cash, with net interest payments reaching $640 million in the second quarter alone, unsecured bond yields approaching 15%, and an S&P rating of B+. Capital expenditure was just over $16 billion in the first half of 2026 and could reach $39 billion for the year, roughly triple its $12.4 to $13.2 billion revenue guidance. States are also weighing restrictions on data centers. On the positive side, second-quarter revenue rose 112% year over year and the backlog exceeded $104 billion. The author has reservations and sees the drop as an opportunity only for the most risk-tolerant investors, who might build a position slowly, while the company needs to prove it can convert its backlog efficiently and manage debt.
- Apple’s iPhone Duo Sold Out In Minutes. The Last Time Apple Reinvented The Phone, One Apple Supplier’s Stock Soared About 1,200% In A Decade
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- Why Sandisk Stock Shot Higher Today
Sandisk shares jumped as much as 8.3% and were still up 7.9% at 11:24 a.m. ET, helped by a tech rebound and positive news in high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Nvidia has developed NVHBM, a custom HBM die with 15% lower power consumption and 30% higher bandwidth that links NVLink and HBM chips. A Seoul Economic Daily report says Nvidia asked Samsung Electronics to use TSMC's 3-nanometer process to make NVHBM dies, the first such collaboration between the two. Nvidia has also approached Micron and SK Hynix to standardize the process, which could free compute-die space for up to 30% additional compute. The article argues this suggests AI adoption still has room to grow, which would also benefit memory suppliers, and notes Sandisk trades at 19 times earnings and 6 times forward earnings.
- JPMorgan Picks Ethereum for JPM Coin, Citing the Network’s Liquidity and Client Use
JPMorgan is launching JPM Coin, its dollar deposit token, on Ethereum and will offer it to institutional clients there, as announced Monday and reported by Bloomberg. Emma Landriault, global head of Kinexys Labs, said Ethereum's liquidity and the fact that the bank's clients already use it drove the choice. The token targets large crypto firms that pay onchain and financial institutions active in tokenized assets, which can use it as onchain cash to settle trades or as collateral. JPM Coin debuted last year on Base, and it lets clients move dollars in seconds at any hour, whereas a transfer can otherwise take several days. JPMorgan's private Kinexys network already handles daily volume above $7 billion, the bank's payments arm handles around $12 trillion in daily payments, and Open Standard launched its OUSD stablecoin on Ethereum, Solana, Base and Tempo last month.
- Prediction : Amazon Next Chapter Could Be Its Most Important One Yet
24/7 Wall St. sets a price target of $332.67 for Amazon (AMZN), 30.4% above the current $255.20, and rates the stock a buy with 70% confidence. The thesis rests on AWS, which grew 37% last quarter, its fastest pace in 18 quarters, while Amazon plans to spend about $200B in 2026 on AI infrastructure, chips, robotics and satellites. The article flags risks: trailing free cash flow turned negative at about -$7.6B after second-quarter capex rose 68.44%, and long-term debt climbed to $119.1B from $65.6B. It compares Amazon's valuation with Microsoft and Alphabet, and says the author would stay constructive if AWS growth stays above 30% and free cash flow turns positive in 2027.
- Explainer - What behind Egypt move towards possible military involvement in Saudi - Yemen conflict ?
Egypt's parliament is expected to vote next week on authorising its armed forces to help defend Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks from Yemen, if Riyadh requests support. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi made the request in a Saturday speech, a clear escalation from Cairo's measured tone since the Iran war began, though Egypt has not publicly committed to a direct combat role. Egypt relies heavily on Gulf states for remittances, aid and deposits, including a $5.3 billion Saudi deposit at Egypt's central bank due this month. Analysts say security concerns, including a July drone strike on two gas vessels at Damietta and shared interest in Red Sea shipping, are pushing Cairo toward a more active stance. Egypt receives about $1.3 billion a year in US military aid and previously sent air and naval forces to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen in 2015.
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