The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently crossed 5.3% for the first time since 2002, and the 30-year yield stands at 5.57%. The author attributes the high yields mainly to persistent inflation, with CPI rising from 3% when Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 to 3.4% today, despite his campaign pledge to end inflation. A $1.99 trillion fiscal 2026 deficit on top of $40.3 trillion in national debt, plus a surge in corporate borrowing to fund AI infrastructure, adds bond supply that pushes yields higher. The article compares this with 1987 before Black Monday, 2000 before the dot-com bust, and 1994, when the S&P 500 still finished the year down by less than 2%. It notes that the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio is closer to its early-2000 level than ever before, though corporate earnings growth remains strong.
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Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/15/2026 | 728.00 |
| Change that session | -0.13% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/15/2026 | 771.79 |
| Change that session | +0.28% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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