Diesel prices are surging ahead of the midterm elections, and the International Energy Agency's October report expects supply constraints to keep them elevated into next year, with inventories strained until the second half of 2027. Trump recently paused sanctions on Russian diesel and said a deal with Vladimir Putin would release 4.8 million metric tons (about 36 million barrels) to the global market, though the article notes this is unlikely to lower prices in the near term. Wholesale diesel has more than doubled since early 2026 through September, hit by the Iran war and Russia's war in Ukraine, after Russia banned diesel exports on July 8. In the U.S., the price of a gallon of diesel rose nearly 40% between July 6 and Sept. 22, and Goldman Sachs predicts diesel will stay high through 2027.
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