News about natural gas

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned that Europe will struggle to fully make up for lost gas supply if it keeps cutting Russian volumes, amid instability in the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted production at a Qatari LNG facility that halted after attacks in March. He said the EU's LNG import ban, effective January 1, 2027, makes little sense while supply is tight, and that European consumers would bear the consequences. Novak estimated European gas reserves are about 10% below the average of previous years, and Reuters forecasts storage will reach only about 75–78% of capacity by November, well below the five-year average. Still, Russia supplied about 12 million tonnes of LNG to Europe in the first nine months of 2026, higher than a year earlier, as European buyers rush to purchase and stockpile before the ban. The EU has adopted a roadmap to end Russian gas imports, banning long-term LNG contracts from January 1, 2027 and phasing out pipeline gas during 2027.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia expects to deliver 39 billion cubic meters of gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline this year, more than the main contract, and the two sides agreed to raise supply to 44 billion cubic meters. He said the first Russian oil tanker bound for world markets, linked to a diesel-related deal with the US, had left the Arctic port of Dikson, and that Moscow faces no problems selling oil. Novak said the market is short 4-6 million barrels per day, keeping prices high and potentially pushing them higher if the Strait of Hormuz situation does not improve. He added that if Persian Gulf supply resumes, the market could rebalance within one to one-and-a-half years, while strategic oil reserves are nearly exhausted.

According to The New York Times, the US plan for Ukraine peace calls on Europe to buy more Russian gas, while Ukraine may consider reopening pipelines that once carried gas to the EU. The proposal is tied to broader issues, including Russia–NATO relations, security guarantees for Ukraine and territorial questions. Russian gas transit through Ukraine was halted in January 2025, leaving TurkStream as the only remaining pipeline route to the EU. Russia's share of EU gas imports fell from about 45% before 2022 to around 12% in 2025, yet the EU bought 36 billion m3 of Russian gas last year, including LNG estimated at €7.2 billion. The EU has begun phasing out some Russian pipeline contracts and plans to ban Russian LNG from January 2027 and pipeline gas from September, aiming for full elimination by the end of 2027.

Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Turkey will buy part of the diesel Russia exports under a deal between Moscow and U.S. President Donald Trump, but gave no volume, delivery timing or commercial terms. The deal has drawn opposition from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, some European officials and Republican lawmakers, who fear it will help Russia recover energy revenue while the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues. Turkey relies heavily on energy imports and aims to boost output at the Black Sea Sakarya field, where the first floating production unit, Osman Gazi, was brought to the Black Sea on 17 October and is expected to raise output from about 9.5 million m³ to 20 million m³ per day. A second, larger unit is planned for Q1 2028, adding about 25 million m³ per day and lifting Sakarya output to 45 million m³ per day, or about 16.4 billion m³ a year, enough to meet the needs of about 3/4 of households. Turkey consumed about 59 billion m³ of gas last year but produced only 3.1 billion m³ domestically, roughly 5% of demand.

According to The New York Times, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner urged Ukraine and European allies to consider resuming Russian gas transit through Ukrainian pipelines as an economic element of a peace settlement. The idea faces firm opposition in Europe, especially Germany, where officials argue that reliance on Russian hydrocarbons undermines energy security. Washington argues that restored flows would give the Kremlin a commercial incentive to halt military operations and bring transit revenue for Ukraine's reconstruction, and some officials suggest the US could seek a share of the proceeds. The White House confirmed its proposals include economic incentives for both sides and denied actively discussing a revival of Nord Stream 2, though one source called restarting intact segments the “simplest step”. In Germany, the AfD, polling near 30 percent, has campaigned for cheap Russian gas imports, while European officials warn restored flows would undermine sanctions and generate billions for Moscow's defense industry.