FedEx shares returned 58.9% over the past year, including dividends. At the start of the period the stock traded at US$254, and investors weighed a bullish Fair Value of US$320, based on integrated logistics gains and programs like DRIVE and Network 2.0, against a bearish Fair Value of US$200, based on concerns about digitalization reducing parcel volumes and rising labor and environmental costs. Actions such as the FedEx Freight spin-off and the US$1.4b sale of FedEx Supply Chain supported the efficiency case, while Amazon opening its supply chain services to third parties and FedEx closing facilities and cutting jobs kept volume and competition concerns alive. The stock now trades at US$318, above the article's more cautious Fair Value, and the current price assumes FedEx turns its AI, Dataworks and Network 2.0 programs into durable pricing power despite pressure from fuel, labor and decarbonization spending.
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