News about consumer discretionary

Oil has mostly stayed above $100 a barrel over the past month because of the Iran war, and energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector this year with a gain of more than 50%. The author argues energy stocks have limited upside unless oil keeps rising, and believes oil's next big move is lower once the conflict ends, with annualized inflation at 3.7% in September and prices driven by supply concerns rather than demand. Instead, the article points to consumer discretionary stocks (XLY), this year's worst sector with a 7% loss, which fell 36% in 2022 when Brent rose 35% but gained around 40% in 2023 as Brent finished down about 3%. The author stresses this is not a prediction that the pattern will repeat.