News about S&P 500

Warren Buffett, now chairman emeritus of Berkshire Hathaway, warned at the May shareholder meeting that 'we've never had people in a more gambling mood than now,' pointing to individuals rushing into short-term options and market bets. The article argues the S&P 500 and quality stocks have historically recovered from turmoil, and that pharma and biotech firms can hold up in tough times because patients always need treatment. It highlights three picks: Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), the cystic fibrosis leader that recently purchased Crinetics; Eli Lilly (LLY), whose tirzepatide brought in more than $14 billion of its $23 billion revenue in the recent quarter; and AbbVie (ABBV), where Rinvoq and Skyrizi each grew 24% and which is a Dividend King with more than 50 consecutive years of dividend increases.

The author warns that the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, above 41, is extremely elevated, and says investors should favor companies with durable advantages before a downturn. Alphabet is highlighted for products embedded in everyday life, a diversified mix of advertising and Google Cloud, and vertical integration including custom TPU chips. In the second quarter, Alphabet reported revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24%, Google Cloud revenue up 82% to $24.8 billion, operating cash flow of $39.1 billion and $242.5 billion in cash and marketable securities. The article notes Alphabet fell 55% in 2008, about 31% in the COVID-19 crash and about 39% in 2022, and the author suggests buying gradually during dips and holding long term.

U.S. stock futures were trending higher early Monday, shrugging off “Black Monday” crash fears circulating on social media. Wall Street is bracing for a pivotal week of mega-cap tech earnings while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue.

In an early-May CNBC interview, Warren Buffett answered “Yeah” when asked whether stock prices were too high, saying many things would look very silly. From May 1 (7,230.12) to Oct. 15 (7,744.06), the S&P 500 rose 7%. Even so, Berkshire Hathaway became a net buyer of stocks in Q2 for the first time in three and a half years, buying about $23.5 billion while selling about $3.7 billion, and it bought back $4.5 billion of its own stock. It also invested in Alphabet, now nearly 13% of its equity portfolio, and in the recent IPO of Bending Spoons, with $600 million in July and $330 million in a private placement this month. The article notes Bending Spoons trades at 29 times forward earnings and will carry significant debt, so it is not a bargain in the traditional sense.

U.S. stock futures rose late Sunday, signaling a rebound from Friday's slide in the Nasdaq Composite, even as calls for a 'Black Monday' crash trended. The Kobeissi Letter called selloff worries 'overdone,' noting the S&P 500 has climbed from about 5,500 to around 7,650 since May 2025. It argues the index is in a 'stealth' bear market within a bull market, with 84% of its stocks at least 10% below record highs and just 10 stocks driving 70% of gains since the March low. S&P 500 futures rose 0.72% to 7,760 after the index closed 1.09% lower on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite closed 2.14% lower. Polymarket priced a 7% chance of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026, while David Rosenberg said he sees better-than-even odds of a recession within a year.

Japanese stocks fell sharply on Monday, reversing part of the previous session's gains after weak cues from Wall Street. The Nikkei 225 dropped 900.46 points (1.38%) to 64,423.83 after touching a low of 63,831.78, led by heavyweights and technology stocks, with Taiyo Yuden plunging more than 7% and SoftBank down more than 4%. On Wall Street, the Nasdaq fell 572.99 points (2.1%) to 26,140.03, the S&P 500 lost 84.62 points (1.1%) to 7,659.44, and the Dow slipped 175.28 points (0.3%) to 52,002.41. European markets rose, with Germany's DAX up 1%, the FTSE 100 up 0.4% and the CAC 40 up 0.3%. WTI crude for November delivery rose $3.33 (3.4%) to $101.30 a barrel, topping $100 for the first time in a month as Iran re-escalated attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

The article argues that the Magnificent Seven together account for more than one-third of the S&P 500's market capitalization, and the author would choose Alphabet as the single stock to own for the next decade. According to the piece, YouTube held a 14.2% share of U.S. daily TV viewing time in July per Nielsen, Waymo was completing 500,000 rides a week, and Google Search made up 53% of Alphabet's revenue. Google Cloud posted second-quarter revenue of $24.8 billion, up 82% year over year. However, Alphabet expects to spend about $200 billion on infrastructure at the midpoint of its plan, free cash flow turned negative in Q2, and the author says investors must be very patient.

US stock futures rose and oil edged lower as traders prepared for a busy earnings week, with more than 70 S&P 500 companies reporting, including Tesla and Meta. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% on Friday, its worst week since June, while the VIX jumped to a four-month high as tech shares slumped. Brent crude fell 0.7% to near $110 a barrel, adding to inflation worries and complicating the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's Oct. 28 decision. Investors are watching whether heavy AI infrastructure spending will deliver adequate returns, while geopolitical risks rise amid strained US-Ukraine relations. Analysts describe a period of heightened uncertainty, with Asia especially exposed to chips, higher yields and energy prices.

The article argues that economies, markets, politics and societies face unusual volatility at once, with global growth sluggish and many major developed economies stalling well below 3 percent. Inflation remains above the 2 percent target, with eurozone inflation hitting 3.8 percent last month, its highest in three years, and the UK's consumer price index reaching 3.1 percent in August. Public debt in several advanced economies reaches or exceeds 100 percent of GDP, while bond yields are elevated globally, with 10-year US Treasuries above 5.3 percent and 30-year yields above 5.6 percent, the highest since 2002. Equity markets look fragile, as seven tech firms account for more than 30 percent of the S&P 500's market capitalization and the price-to-earnings ratio stands at 26.6, versus 16 for much of the last quarter-century. The author also flags eroding education, infrastructure and social cohesion as underlying risks.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.06% on October 15, its first close above 5% since July 19, 2007, a level viewed as a key anchor for pricing across the economy. The article compares this with 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% in the following 12 months and 11% over the next five years, after yields had risen 26% in the prior four years. Yields have also climbed 26% in the past year as the central bank raises rates to fight stubborn inflation. Key differences include a normal yield curve today versus an inverted one in 2007, stricter bank rules after Dodd-Frank, and a stock market dominated by profitable tech firms. The article argues investors should stay focused on high-quality companies for the long term.

Costco will pay a $1.47 per-share dividend on Nov. 13 to shareholders on record as of Oct. 30, but the yield is only 0.6%, well below Coca-Cola (2.3%), Procter & Gamble (2.7%) and PepsiCo (4.6%). The article argues a stronger reason to consider the stock is its history of beating the S&P 500: it is up 13.4% this year versus 13.1% for the index, and 116% over five years versus 73%. It also points to room for expansion, from 914 warehouses at the end of fiscal 2025 to 939 at the end of fiscal 2026 and an expected 967 at the end of fiscal 2027. Costco has also paid special dividends of $15 per share in 2024 and $10 in 2020, though there is no set schedule.

The article notes the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual total return of about 10% since 1957 and rose 15% over the past 12 months, trading just 2% below its all-time high at 21 times forward earnings versus a 25-year average of 17. The index has suffered sharp drawdowns, including declines of 57% from 2007 to 2009, 34% in 2020 and 25% in 2022, yet its total return since 2007 is 686%. Even investors who bought at the January 3, 2022 peak, just before the Fed's rate hikes, would still have a 71% total return. The author concludes that long-term investors should not focus on timing the entry point, but start a position now and invest regularly each month using dollar-cost averaging.

The VIX jumped 21.5% to 19.99 on Friday as the S&P 500 fell 1.09% amid worries over AI stocks and geopolitical tensions, its biggest one-day rise since June 5. In 32 earlier Friday spikes of 20% or more since January 1990, the VIX fell the following Monday 25 times and rose only seven times. Bitcoin stayed above $80,000 over the weekend, and its volatility index BVIV was just under 40%, showing no sign of market stress. However, the article notes nothing guarantees a calm Monday: the VIX kept climbing sharply on Monday in seven of those 32 cases, and it remains under 20 today.

On October 15, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.06%, having crossed 5% about three weeks earlier for the first time since July 19, 2007. The article draws parallels to 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% over the next 12 months and 11% over the following five years, after the yield had risen 26% in the prior four years. Today the yield has risen 26% over the past 12 months as the Federal Reserve raises rates against stubborn inflation, and the S&P 500 sits near record highs. Key differences, however, include stricter bank rules since the Dodd-Frank Act of July 2010, a normal yield curve instead of an inverted one, and an index led by profitable tech giants. The article concludes that long-term investors should stay the course and invest early and often.

The 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.06% on the morning of October 15, after crossing 5% in late September for the first time since it last closed above that level on July 19, 2007. The article says this rate anchors pricing, mortgages, corporate borrowing costs and valuations across the economy. It compares today with 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% over the following 12 months and 11% over the next five years, noting a similar backdrop of rising yields, central bank rate hikes and an index near record highs. However, it highlights key differences: banks now face stricter rules after Dodd-Frank, the yield curve is normal rather than inverted as in 2007, and the market is dominated by highly profitable tech giants. It advises long-term investors to focus on high-quality companies and not rely too heavily on macro data.

Wall Street faces a tug-of-war as booming earnings for technology and energy firms collide with a relentless rise in bond yields, which have reached their highest levels in decades. Analysts expect earnings to keep soaring on AI data center build-outs, while oil prices, pushed into triple-digit territory by the war with Iran, add pressure on consumers. The market has split into AI and non-AI stocks, and AI stocks sold off last week as Treasury yields fell and investors questioned the AI-driven growth story. Valuations have slumped: the S&P 500 trades at 19 times expected earnings, below its five-year and 10-year averages, according to FactSet. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer said earnings growth and the rising cost of capital are in a race to determine stock prices.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, said on the Minority Mindset podcast that U.S. baby boomers are 'being set up' for a massive stock market crash that could leave them homeless, though he offered no evidence for the prediction. The article notes U.S. stocks have surged during President Donald Trump's second term but have been volatile, including due to reciprocal tariffs in 2025 and the Iran War in 2026. In a Sept. 27 X post, Kiyosaki repeated his warning and pointed to a potential S&P 500 collapse, though many of his past warnings have not come true. The article argues older investors are especially vulnerable, since large losses are harder to recover from and retirees may have to sell assets after declines, a risk known as sequence of returns risk.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have hit several record closing highs over the past four years, driven by AI infrastructure spending, record-breaking IPOs and better-than-expected earnings. The article highlights outstanding margin debt, reported monthly by FINRA, as a measure of investor risk-taking, since borrowing can magnify both gains and losses. Since 1997, margin debt has surged at least 65% over a short period four times, and the three earlier episodes preceded major bear markets, including the dot-com crash, the financial crisis and the 2022 downturn. From April 2025 to June 2026, margin debt rose 77% to an all-time high of $1.502 trillion, which the article says could foreshadow trouble for stocks, though long-term investors have historically benefited.

U.S. stocks have climbed for most of the past four years, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite repeatedly hitting record closes, driven by AI infrastructure spending, record IPOs and better-than-expected earnings. The article highlights outstanding margin debt, the money investors borrow from brokers to buy or short-sell securities, as a telling gauge of risk appetite, reported monthly by FINRA. Since 1997, margin debt has risen by at least 65% over a short period four times, and the previous three spikes preceded major bear markets, with the S&P 500 down 49% by October 2002 and 57% by March 2009. The latest spike, from April 2025 to June 2026, lifted margin debt 77% to a record $1.502 trillion, which the article says is a warning sign for stocks in the short term. Still, it notes that over the long run, stocks have historically delivered considerably higher average annual returns than bonds, commodities and real estate.

The article argues that investors should not fear bear markets, citing Warren Buffett, who has invested through all market environments and beaten the market over time. During six decades as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, he achieved a compounded annual increase of almost 20%, compared with about 10% for the S&P 500 over that period. During the 2008 financial crisis, Buffett wrote in The New York Times that bad news is an investor's best friend because it lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price. The article adds that the S&P 500 has historically rebounded after downturns and climbed significantly over the long run, so buying during declines and holding for years can be a sound plan.