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- Nebius Stock Has Fallen About 40% From Its Record. Here's Why I'm Still Waiting to Buy.
Nebius Group (NBIS) shares have fallen about 40% from their record close of $286.69 on June 18 to around $165, mostly in October, with no company news clearly explaining the drop beyond broader selling in AI cloud stocks. Revenue rose to $582 million in the second quarter, up 454% year over year, but management's 2026 forecast of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion implies about $2 billion in second-half revenue, more than double the first half's $981 million. The company also posted a net loss from continuing operations of around $190 million and capital expenditures of about $5.7 billion in the quarter, while three customers accounted for 59% of second-quarter revenue. Trading at around 15 times expected 2026 sales, the author says the stock is still not cheap enough and would wait for a third-quarter report showing revenue heading toward $1 billion a quarter and backlog growth from customers beyond Microsoft and Meta.
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