News about OpenAI

IMD professor Howard Yu says OpenAI and Anthropic may stay ahead of Chinese rivals, but a lead of roughly four to six months is 'very perishable' because most use cases don't need top-tier capability. He notes many companies use AI for simple tasks and weigh token spending against hiring, while cheaper Chinese open-source models can run inside a company's own data centers, a demand especially strong in Europe. Yu believes OpenAI and Anthropic will not be easily displaced in Western consumer markets thanks to easy access and clean interfaces, though enterprise buyers are more sophisticated. Polymarket traders still see U.S. labs leading, with Anthropic at about 43%, Alphabet at 42%, OpenAI near 8%, and Chinese labs around 1% or less to have the best AI model at end-2026.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang posted in September that "AGI has arrived," while many other tech leaders are more cautious about when AGI will be reached. AGI is described as AI capable of a skilled worker's performance in most jobs, whereas today's models still need supervision and cannot work reliably over long stretches. METR research found that top models succeed only about half the time on tasks that would take a person two workdays. Sam Altman says OpenAI is "not quite yet" at AGI but expects an internal system he would call AGI by year-end, while Sundar Pichai expects it shortly after 2030. Andy Jassy has not set a date, but AWS customers have signed $496 billion in contracts for future services.