News about SpaceX

Gary Black of Future Fund predicts SpaceX could announce within weeks an all-stock acquisition of Tesla at $420 per share, framing the Roadster reveal as a step toward combining Elon Musk's companies. Black estimates the Roadster could add just $0.06 a share to Tesla's 2029 earnings, or 1.1% of the $5.40 consensus adjusted forecast, and sees limited brand benefit, while noting TSLA tends to sell off after its events. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management also sees a merger motive behind the showcase, while Morningstar expects the Roadster could draw buyers to Tesla's lineup but forecasts fewer than 2,000 annual deliveries once production ramps. Barclays considers an all-stock SpaceX acquisition of Tesla the most likely structure, with a possible announcement around Tesla's annual meeting or within six to 12 months, though shareholder approvals and antitrust review remain hurdles. Year-to-date, TSLA is down 21% and SPCX is down 9%.

From the night of October 13 to 14, SpaceX unexpectedly restricted the speed of Starlink terminals moving in Ukraine, disrupting many missions. President Zelensky said the current maximum speed is 161 km/h and that Starlink would cut out and drones would lose signal above it, while a commander of Ukraine's mid-range UAV unit put the limit at 100 km/h. Reuters, citing sources, reported the restriction came from within the White House, but Trump denied personally ordering it and said he did not believe Elon Musk had either. Musk stated that Starshield is owned and controlled by the US government, and no one in Washington or at SpaceX has accepted responsibility. Even so, Ukraine launched one of the largest drone attacks of the year, targeting an important Russian oil storage facility.

On October 8, SpaceX agreed to buy Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio to help its Starlink Mobile service reach phones indoors; terms were not disclosed, though The Wall Street Journal put the price at about $8 billion in cash. Shares of T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T each fell over 10% the next day, while SpaceX stock barely moved and trades near $146, about 31% below its record $211.39 close on June 16. In the second quarter, SpaceX's connectivity segment, which houses Starlink, posted revenue of $4.3 billion, up 66% year over year, and was the only segment with an operating profit; the Grain purchase still needs FCC approval. At a valuation of about $2 trillion, the $8 billion is under 1% of that, but trailing four-quarter revenue of about $23 billion leaves the stock above 80 times sales, and the company lost $4.8 billion in the first half of 2026. The author considers the stock still too pricey, noting that revenue from direct phone service is probably more than a year away and that third-quarter results are due October 20.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to be very careful in public statements about U.S. support. Zelenskyy had earlier told NBC's “Meet the Press” that the U.S. government was responsible for a recent slowdown of Starlink, the U.S.-provided satellite internet that is critical to Ukraine's defense, and that Ukraine was “blocked” from U.S. intelligence for a period. Bessent replied that President Donald Trump and Secretary Marco Rubio had categorically said no one in the administration did this, calling the charge “very reckless.” Elon Musk, whose SpaceX provides Starlink, also posted on X that the U.S. government and Trump are “ultimately” responsible for speed limits on Starshield, the military version of Starlink, a claim Trump has denied.

Earnings season moves into a busier phase, with SpaceX (SPCX) reporting Tuesday and Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday. Investors will watch Starlink and SpaceX's AI operations, along with Tesla's margins, cash flow and plans to fund robotaxi, Optimus and AI. Analysts expect Tesla to post EPS of $0.45 on $28.11 billion in revenue, and SpaceX EPS of $0.18 on $13.16 billion. Meta Platforms (META) reports Wednesday after the bell, with expected EPS of $6.76 on $63.39 billion in revenue, while Netflix, IBM, GE Aerospace and several airlines also report this week. In after-hours trading Friday, SPY fell 0.26%, QQQ dropped 0.27% and DIA slipped 0.21%.

NASA will pay SpaceX $850 million to deorbit the International Space Station after 2030, and has released a Request for Proposals to build a privately owned replacement that it would lease. Bids are due December 8, and NASA plans to select two or more teams, committing at least $100 million to phase 1 design and development. The winner(s) would receive an eight-year contract from April 2027 to April 2035, extendable to April 2042, with NASA anticipating $34.1 billion in total spending. Axiom Space, Orbital Reef, Starlab and Vast are competing, and the article notes Starlab, led by Voyager Technologies (VOYG), is the only team investors can currently buy into.