News about trade surplus

The article argues that the common view that the renminbi is significantly undervalued, and that China should let it appreciate sharply to shrink its trade surplus, overlooks the cause of the currency's weakness. China's merchandise trade surplus widened to US$1.2 trillion in 2025, and the author ties both the weak currency and the larger surplus to a deep adjustment in the property sector that has weakened domestic investment demand. Rapid appreciation without fixing domestic demand would, the article says, hurt exports and slow China's recovery, while also raising global prices of Chinese manufactured goods that have helped restrain inflation in advanced economies. Bond markets could also face pressure from higher inflation expectations, given large fiscal deficits and rising global demand for savings.

China's trade surplus reached $938 billion in the first nine months, on track to beat last year's record of $1,100 billion. September exports rose more than 36% from a year earlier, the highest since February, while imports climbed 31%, above forecasts. Strong overseas demand is offsetting weak domestic consumption and easing pressure to meet the 4.5-5% GDP growth target, even as producer prices rose at their fastest pace in four years while consumer prices edged up below expectations. After Xi Jinping and Donald Trump met in Washington, both sides extended their trade truce and agreed to cut tariffs on an additional $30 billion of each other's goods. Planned EU restrictions on hybrid cars could pressure China's auto industry, so automakers are rushing exports before detailed EU rules are published in December, while Washington and Brussels still blame Beijing's industrial and currency policies for the surplus.

China's exports rose 36.3% year-on-year in September, their fastest pace since February, while imports climbed 31%, the fastest since June, according to official data released Wednesday. Both beat Reuters poll estimates of 25.5% for exports and 24.5% for imports. Exports to the U.S. grew nearly 39.6%, sending the monthly trade surplus to its highest since January 2025, and the $133.5 billion surplus was a record monthly high. Strong demand for China-made parts for AI data centers and easing tensions with the U.S. helped fuel exports, with integrated circuit board export value up 136% even as units rose only 1%. Car exports surged 56.3% to 1.18 million vehicles, while crude oil import volumes fell for a sixth straight month.