Bitcoin fell to a 52-week low of $58,566 in July, 53% below its all-time high of $124,773, then rebounded to about $81,800 by Oct. 23. Ark Invest, founded by Cathie Wood, forecasts Bitcoin's market cap could reach $16 trillion by 2030, implying $796,000 per coin and 873% upside from current levels. Its two main drivers are institutional funds allocating about 2.5% of their $200 trillion in managed assets, and Bitcoin capturing 20% to 60% of gold's $28 trillion market cap as "digital gold." The author argues the forecast may be too ambitious: Bitcoin has fallen 13% since the start of 2025 while gold has risen 57%, and a $16 trillion valuation would exceed the combined market caps of Nvidia, Apple and Alphabet. Although Bitcoin's recent recovery could continue, the author considers a rally to $796,000 per coin unrealistic.
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