News about bonds

The South African rand edged up roughly 0.2% in early Monday trade to 16.4475, as investors looked ahead to a busy week of economic data. The focus is on Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's medium-term budget policy statement on Wednesday and September inflation figures. Nedbank expects headline inflation to rise to 4.8% in September from 4.4% in August, and retail sales growth to slow to 2.5% in August from 3.4% in July, with higher transport costs from fuel prices and rand depreciation as the main pressure. The 2035 benchmark government bond was little changed, with its yield rising half a basis point to 8.7%.

Market presenters on Bloomberg's Opening Trade said US and Asian tech futures rebounded after last week's sharp sell-off, while European futures fell amid protests in France and Russia-Ukraine tensions. Treasuries acted as a haven, while riskier bonds issued by AI companies widened from the rest of the market. India performed well because it has little AI exposure, and investors will watch Meta's guidance on AI spending. French debt sold off, with long-end yields up about four basis points, and the euro came under pressure.

Japanese government bond yields eased on Monday morning as investors sought safety after losses in U.S. tech shares, with the 10-year yield at 2.9%, according to Reuters. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.1% and the S&P 500 lost 1.1% in Friday's U.S. session; AP linked the selloff to concern that companies borrowing to expand AI may struggle to sustain spending as global bond yields rise. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told parliament the government would manage the total amount of bond issuance. The Bank of Japan raised its uncollateralized overnight call rate target to around 1.25% from around 1% on Sept. 18, and Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation was “quite close” to the 2% target. The BOJ's next policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 29–30.

Mortgage holders should expect interest rates to stay higher for longer, whether or not the RBA hikes again on Melbourne Cup day. Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said neutral rates are rising in Australia and abroad, driven by intense global competition for capital from AI and data centre companies. The cash rate is 4.6%, its highest in 15 years, and markets have almost fully priced in another rise by mid-2027 and do not expect rates to fall below current levels until at least mid-2028. The term premium has climbed to a 12-year high, tightening financial conditions. Federal government spending reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025/26, the highest in 40 years excluding COVID-19, which economists say is weakening the effectiveness of interest rates in curbing demand.

Asian shares fell Monday as worries about AI's enormous funding needs weighed ahead of a busy earnings week, while the euro eased amid political unrest in France. Oil dropped after President Trump's decision to waive some Russia sanctions, though a final decision has not been made, which helped bonds and US stock futures; Brent fell 1.6% to $108.06 a barrel and US crude 0.7% to $100.70. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 5.0645% after its largest weekly drop in over eight months. Japan's Nikkei dropped 2.0% and South Korea 1.6%, after heavy losses last week, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index shed 11.4%, its longest losing streak since 2008. Major earnings from Meta, Tesla, Lam Research and others are due this week, and five AI hyperscalers are expected to lift capital spending to about $1.2 trillion next year, according to Goldman Sachs; gold rose 0.4% to $4,181 an ounce.

Indonesian stocks slid to a six-year low in a record two-day rout, falling 11.6% on Friday and more than 5% on Monday, after MSCI said it was considering shifting Indonesia to 'standalone' status from next year. The exchange halved its down limit to 7% to try to slow the selling. The rupiah weakened to 18,040 per dollar, near the record low of 18,190 hit in June, while the 10-year bond yield rose to 7.4%. Goldman Sachs estimates a full MSCI removal could trigger $5.6 billion of passive outflows, and foreign investors have net sold $4.88 billion of Indonesian stocks so far this year. S&P Global said the outflows were unlikely to materially raise financing costs, but damage to investor confidence was the bigger concern.

Mortgage holders should expect interest rates to stay high for longer, whether or not the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises them again. The RBA warns that intense global competition for capital from AI and data centre companies is pushing up the neutral interest rate, and assistant governor Christopher Kent says there is reasonable evidence neutral rates are rising in Australia and abroad. The cash rate is 4.6%, its highest in 15 years, and markets do not expect rates to fall below current levels until at least mid-2028, with another rise by mid-2027 almost fully priced in. The term premium has climbed to a 12-year high, and Commonwealth Bank chief economist Luke Yeaman argues that higher government and AI spending makes rates less effective at curbing demand. Federal government spending reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025/26, the highest in 40 years excluding COVID-19, and HSBC's Paul Bloxham urges further spending cuts in the mid-year fiscal update expected in December.

Asian share markets mostly slipped Monday on worries about AI's huge funding needs, though Chinese data beat forecasts, with third-quarter GDP growing 4.5% and retail sales up 1.1%. Indonesia's stock index fell 5% to its lowest since 2020 after MSCI said it was considering moving the country from emerging-market to 'standalone' status. Oil fell after Trump waived some Russia sanctions, with Brent down 1.8% to $107.83 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 4 basis points to 5.0525%. The yuan strengthened to 6.6828 per dollar, its firmest since July 2022, while the euro dipped toward its 16-month low. Investors are awaiting this week's earnings from Meta, Tesla and other companies.

Rising interest rates threaten to derail the already fragile recovery in global commercial real estate, forcing many deals to be repriced sharply or put on hold. US 10-year Treasury yields have risen above 5.3%, up from about 4% at the end of February, driven by inflation linked to the Middle East conflict and climbing borrowing costs. Some investors are negotiating discounts of a few percent, including one company seeking a 5% cut on a $100 million industrial deal agreed three months ago. Office construction starts in the UK rose 23% in the third quarter, but on a rolling 12-month basis they remain near a 15-year low. Experts say the current price adjustment is less severe than in 2022.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has rejected criticism that she is responsible both for the weak yen and for pushing up interest rates. Speaking in parliament in response to opposition lawmaker Yoshifumi Hamano about a second supplementary budget, she said she clearly denied the accusations and that her government will build confidence in the yen through a strong economy. The yen has weakened to its lowest since 1986 and government bond yields have hit multi-decade highs, prompting Tokyo and even Washington to intervene in the currency market. Takaichi said she will appropriately control bond issuance, and Bloomberg reported that total issuance for 2026 will remain unchanged from the original budget plan, though experts were skeptical. Monex's Jesper Koll has said that spending cannot rise without increasing debt.

Novaland (NVL) has extended the timeline of its rights offering to existing shareholders: the subscription rights transfer period now runs to November 23 (from October 26), and registration and payment to November 26 (from October 29). The offering of up to nearly 800.7 million shares at a 3:1 ratio and VND 10,000 per share is expected to raise about VND 8,007 billion. Of this, VND 5,953.3 billion will repay part or all of the principal on 13 of the company's bonds, VND 916.3 billion goes into Nova Saigon Royal Real Estate Investment Co. Ltd., and VND 1,137.3 billion into No Va Thảo Điền Co. Ltd., both to repay bonds of those entities. Payments are scheduled for Q4 2026 to Q1 2027 and may be adjusted to market conditions. This is one of three capital-raising plans shareholders approved in July, alongside a private placement of up to 800 million shares and an ESOP of over 111.7 million shares.

The Hanoi civil enforcement agency selected Vietnam Consulting and Appraisal JSC to value the shares of Truong My Lan at Tan Viet Securities (TVSI), according to a notice dated Oct. 15, 2026. A total of 241,584,580 shares, about 91.54% of charter capital, are held in the names of six individuals and four companies, and no valuation result has been announced yet. The investigation in the Van Thinh Phat case found Lan controlled 88.23% to 88.73% of TVSI in 2018-2020 through nominee holders, and TVSI advised on and issued 25 bond packages for four issuers. For the half-year 2026, TVSI reported after-tax profit of nearly 16 billion VND, down from over 20 billion VND a year earlier, with total assets of over 4,007 billion VND at June 30, 2026. The company has charter capital of 2,639 billion VND and is unlisted.

CNBC's script for China's CCTV on October 19, 2026 reports escalating protests in France over rising living costs, with fuel prices at the center. As of October 18, average French gasoline prices reached about USD 2.39 per liter, roughly 50% above the global average. Filling a 40-liter tank costs about USD 96, nearly 70% of a daily wage, and a growing number of employees are requesting payroll advances. France's fiscal deficit is projected at 5.4% of GDP this year, above the EU's 3% ceiling, and public debt is about EUR 3.6 trillion, or 119% of GDP, the highest since 1946. The 10-year yield briefly approached 5%, its highest since 2002, but the average debt maturity of about 8 years and 158 days means no immediate rollover crisis, and analysts say the ECB is unlikely to bail out French debt. Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin said a 3% deficit is possible by 2029.

IMF African Department director Zeine Zeidane warned that food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa could worsen if new shocks keep pushing up food prices. Grain prices have risen significantly over the past six or seven months due to higher fertilizer costs from the U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, while attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and possible El Nino weather effects could further cut output. The IMF's update projects median regional inflation rising from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 5.0 percent in 2027, with growth at 4.5 percent in both years. The IMF supports nearly 20 countries and is in talks with about 10 on new programs, including Senegal and Malawi, though high interest burdens, low reserves and falling aid limit room to absorb another shock. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen more than 100 basis points since the conflict began, raising borrowing costs for African countries.

The ringgit opened mostly higher against major currencies on Monday after Malaysia's advance estimate showed third-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 5.3%, stronger than expected and following 6.0% in the previous quarter. Against the US dollar, the ringgit was little changed at 4.0790/0855 at 8 am, versus Friday's close of 4.0795/0835. Bank Muamalat Malaysia chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said stronger growth could reinforce expectations of possible monetary policy normalisation, and expected the ringgit-USD to trade between RM4.07 and RM4.08. Concerns over AI-related stock valuations could push investors toward safe havens such as US Treasury bonds, potentially supporting the dollar. The ringgit gained against the euro but weakened against the Japanese yen.

Shares of neocloud operators CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS) and IREN edged up overnight after a week of selling driven by doubts over business models and higher financing costs. CoreWeave had fallen more than 20% in the early part of the week before gaining 6% on Thursday, supported by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. According to The Information, industry executives expect only seven to ten of hundreds of neoclouds to survive, with Nvidia supporting them through easier credit terms and $20 billion in leases. Bloomberg reported that Nscale faces opposition to its $30 billion IPO valuation, while CoreWeave's unsecured debt due in 2032 fell below 80 cents on the dollar, a level widely seen as a sign of financial strain.

TCBS reported a record Q3 2026 pre-tax profit of VND 2,152 billion, lifting nine-month pre-tax profit to VND 5,708 billion, up 13% year-on-year and 76% of its full-year plan. Margin lending and advances remained the main growth driver, with net income of VND 1,548 billion (up 55%) and outstanding balances of VND 54,740 billion as of 30/09/2026 (up 25% from end-2025). Brokerage, commission and custody income fell 39% to VND 64 billion, mainly because high interest rates weighed on fund certificate distribution. Investment banking income rose 45% to VND 740 billion, and customer accounts exceeded 1.3 million, up 14% year-on-year. Funding and bond distribution income was VND 1,155 billion, up 1%, with over VND 45.6 trillion of corporate bonds distributed, up 144%.

CoreWeave's stock dropped after a chart shared by Chamath Palihapitiya showed its bonds due 2032 yielding 15%, and Reuters reported its April notes due 2031 topped 16%. Rising yields signal growing market concern about default risk and whether neoclouds can earn returns above their cost of capital. That is a problem for Nvidia, which invested $2 billion each in CoreWeave and Nebius and agreed to buy CoreWeave's unused capacity through 2032. CoreWeave says its $104 billion contracted backlog covers its debt, while Nvidia's plan to finance up to $500 billion in AI build-outs faces bank objections over GPU residual values. The article notes Nvidia trades at about 23 times forward earnings, a level that may already reflect this financial pressure.

The author argues that last week's sell-off, especially Friday's, does not mean the data center and AI 'super-cycle' is over. He suggests the selling may instead reflect unwinding positions and the collapse of a hedge fund that borrowed billions from a firm that has not yet disclosed its losses. He notes that semiconductors fell nine straight days and CoreWeave's corporate bond yields spiked, arguing the bond market is squeezing debt-funded buyers. He defends Nvidia and CEO Jensen Huang, saying Nvidia's funding of AI companies differs from the circa-2000 'vendor finance' that benefited vendors whose customers did not need their products. He believes AI demand is real, citing OpenAI, Anthropic and Google's Gemini, which have monetized AI at scale.

Protests that began at a secondary school in Créteil over a lack of teachers have spread across France, drawing well over half a million people onto the streets and leading to violence, looting and hundreds of arrests. Police weapons caused serious injuries, including a 14-year-old whose jaw was shattered and a 15-year-old who lost a hand. President Macron first threatened punishment for those who vandalised and looted, then acknowledged “legitimate concerns” in a later address but told citizens to wait for his successor's election in six months. The columnist argues the government should have engaged with protest representatives rather than ordering riot police in. The unrest coincides with an incipient sovereign debt crisis, as French OATs bonds have fallen sharply and French yields have risen the most among major advanced economies, while political gridlock blocks spending cuts.

Ondo's tokenized Treasury product USDY has grown to about $2.33 billion, slightly above the $2.2 billion held by BlackRock's BUIDL, yet the ONDO token fell 9% in the week ending October 17, 2026 and trades around 44 cents. The article explains that USDY pays yield to its holders, while ONDO is mainly a governance token with no role in USDY creation or redemption. Ondo is a private company that does not disclose how much of its yield-gap revenue it earns, and its US expansion, including FINRA approval for Oasis Pro Markets on July 23, settles in fiat or stablecoins rather than ONDO. The article also notes that BlackRock still earns fees as Ondo grows, and that USDY's lead over BUIDL is narrow. ONDO's market cap is about $2.13 billion, while its fully diluted valuation of about $4.38 billion, including all 10 billion tokens, makes it appear more affordable than USDY.

The article argues that economies, markets, politics and societies face unusual volatility at once, with global growth sluggish and many major developed economies stalling well below 3 percent. Inflation remains above the 2 percent target, with eurozone inflation hitting 3.8 percent last month, its highest in three years, and the UK's consumer price index reaching 3.1 percent in August. Public debt in several advanced economies reaches or exceeds 100 percent of GDP, while bond yields are elevated globally, with 10-year US Treasuries above 5.3 percent and 30-year yields above 5.6 percent, the highest since 2002. Equity markets look fragile, as seven tech firms account for more than 30 percent of the S&P 500's market capitalization and the price-to-earnings ratio stands at 26.6, versus 16 for much of the last quarter-century. The author also flags eroding education, infrastructure and social cohesion as underlying risks.

The article calculates how much capital a 63-year-old would need in an IRA rollover to generate $70,200 a year, a hypothetical $5,850 a month, without buying an annuity. Required amounts vary by yield, from $585,000 at 12% to $2,265,000 at 3.1%. Examples include about $1,293,000 for 30-year Treasuries at roughly 5.4%, $2,265,000 for SCHD at about 3.1%, about $975,000 for JEPI at 7.2%, and about $605,000 for QYLD at 11.6%, though the article warns that covered-call funds can shrink principal. Subtracting average Social Security income of $2,170 a month cuts the needed portfolio to as little as $368,000 at a 12% yield.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.06% on October 15, its first close above 5% since July 19, 2007, a level viewed as a key anchor for pricing across the economy. The article compares this with 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% in the following 12 months and 11% over the next five years, after yields had risen 26% in the prior four years. Yields have also climbed 26% in the past year as the central bank raises rates to fight stubborn inflation. Key differences include a normal yield curve today versus an inverted one in 2007, stricter bank rules after Dodd-Frank, and a stock market dominated by profitable tech firms. The article argues investors should stay focused on high-quality companies for the long term.

Trillions in borrowed money have fueled the AI boom, but investors are growing uneasy about whether more can be raised and repaid. CoreWeave, which has accrued $72 billion in liabilities to run 51 data centers, saw its bond prices crash, with investors pricing a more than 60% chance it would fail to meet its obligations. Oracle bonds also sold off, though less steeply, and the cost of insuring SoftBank's debt against default climbed. Barclays says the spread on risky AI debt rose more than 50% over six months. CoreWeave's model of leasing space for 15 years or more and subleasing it to shorter-term customers such as Meta, Microsoft and OpenAI has drawn WeWork comparisons, which the company disputes.

Share markets have held up well despite rising interest rates, with the ASX 200 flat and the NZX 50 up about 2%, while conservative assets fell as rates rose. Markets expect S&P 500 earnings growth of almost 30% in the upcoming reporting season, and the index's 12-month forward P/E of 19.1 is in line with its 10-year average. Central banks may keep tightening: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate is expected to finish the year at 3%, up from 2.75% today, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.4%, its highest since 2002. The article notes that the December quarter has historically been the strongest for US shares, averaging a 3.1% gain since 1930. It also compares today's backdrop to 2018, when the S&P 500 fell 14% in the last three months of that year.

PGIM India Mutual Fund expects the MPC to begin rate hikes in October, with a total of 50-75 bps by the end of FY2027, and sees the 10-year bond yield trading between 6.95% and 7.25% in the near term. The 10-year yield closed the week at 7.06%, up 2 bps, while the 5-year yield rose 15 bps as the RBI conducted INR 50,000 crore of OMO. Brent crude spiked above USD 109/bbl intra-week before ending at USD 103.87/bbl, and the RBI continued FX intervention as outflows from debt and equity persisted. The trade deficit narrowed to USD 27 billion in August from USD 32 billion in July, while the current account deficit is expected near 1% in FY2027 depending on crude prices. CPI inflation is expected at 5.50% next month, with a risk of broad-based price rises if crude stays above USD 100/bbl.

Puneet Pal of PGIM India Mutual Fund expects yields to keep trending higher as the RBI starts monetary tightening from its June policy meeting, with policy rates possibly rising 50-75 bps by the end of 2026. Money market yields up to one year, near 8%, are viewed as attractive for short-term investors. During the week, government bond yields rose 3-6 bps as the INR hit a record low of 96.83/USD and the RBI announced a USD 5bn buy/sell swap. Analysts expect the balance of payments deficit to be around USD 50bn, so measures to attract dollar inflows may soon follow, though he sees no comparison with 2013 since inflation is below 4%.

Canada's main index, the TSX Composite, rose 552.64 points, or 1.6%, to close Thursday at 36,137.10, as lower bond yields boosted risk appetite despite weakness in energy shares tied to falling oil prices. Shopify gained $7.05, or 2.9%, to $252.53, while Celestica fell 3.1% to $446.70. Canadian wholesale sales declined 1.6% to $91.6 billion in August, manufacturing sales rose 1.5%, and 174,611 new motor vehicles were sold in Canada in August 2026, up 4.9% from a year earlier. In the U.S., the Dow rose 1.1% to 52,177.69 as investors rotated out of AI-related tech stocks over spending concerns, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.08% from 5.24%.

On October 15, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.06%, having crossed 5% about three weeks earlier for the first time since July 19, 2007. The article draws parallels to 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% over the next 12 months and 11% over the following five years, after the yield had risen 26% in the prior four years. Today the yield has risen 26% over the past 12 months as the Federal Reserve raises rates against stubborn inflation, and the S&P 500 sits near record highs. Key differences, however, include stricter bank rules since the Dodd-Frank Act of July 2010, a normal yield curve instead of an inverted one, and an index led by profitable tech giants. The article concludes that long-term investors should stay the course and invest early and often.

The 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.06% on the morning of October 15, after crossing 5% in late September for the first time since it last closed above that level on July 19, 2007. The article says this rate anchors pricing, mortgages, corporate borrowing costs and valuations across the economy. It compares today with 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% over the following 12 months and 11% over the next five years, noting a similar backdrop of rising yields, central bank rate hikes and an index near record highs. However, it highlights key differences: banks now face stricter rules after Dodd-Frank, the yield curve is normal rather than inverted as in 2007, and the market is dominated by highly profitable tech giants. It advises long-term investors to focus on high-quality companies and not rely too heavily on macro data.

Wall Street faces a tug-of-war as booming earnings for technology and energy firms collide with a relentless rise in bond yields, which have reached their highest levels in decades. Analysts expect earnings to keep soaring on AI data center build-outs, while oil prices, pushed into triple-digit territory by the war with Iran, add pressure on consumers. The market has split into AI and non-AI stocks, and AI stocks sold off last week as Treasury yields fell and investors questioned the AI-driven growth story. Valuations have slumped: the S&P 500 trades at 19 times expected earnings, below its five-year and 10-year averages, according to FactSet. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer said earnings growth and the rising cost of capital are in a race to determine stock prices.

CoreWeave (CRWV) shares fell sharply this week, pushing its six-month decline to 46%, as two factors collided: its corporate bonds across maturities were sold off on fears of an AI slowdown and concern over its precarious balance sheet. A Gartner report forecasting that over 80% of neocloud providers will cease independent operations by 2030 added to the pressure. CoreWeave said it is confident in its funding, and several Wall Street firms defended it, including BofA's Tal Liani, who called the move sentiment-driven rather than about the company's ability to pay its debt and maintained a $140 price target. Liani expects fundamentals such as revenue growth to matter once the period of concern passes.

The IMF's latest forecasts show the global economy holding up better than feared despite the Iran war, higher interest rates and an AI-driven investment boom. Global growth is projected to rise to 3.4% in 2027 from an estimated 3.1% this year, with the US doing somewhat better than forecast and China unchanged at 4%. The article warns of risks including high energy prices, extreme weather, excess spending on data-centre technology and budgets in several advanced economies that are close to exhaustion, with France facing dimmer prospects amid a bond selloff. It argues that the burden of responding to any future downturn will ultimately fall on central banks, and quotes Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who said the bond market pressure gives leaders a chance to put their finances in order.