Anthropic, maker of the Claude models, is expected to list next month, possibly in the biggest IPO in history, targeting a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. Revenue has surged, with Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion, up 45% from Q2, but the company spent $7.33 billion on compute and infrastructure in 2025 and posted a $42 billion net loss, about $34 billion of it from an accounting adjustment. Anthropic reportedly posted positive adjusted profit in Q2 2026, though the article says the gap versus GAAP results matters. At $2 trillion, the stock would trade at more than 400 times 2025 revenue but about 30 times annualized Q3 revenue. The author models bull, base and bear scenarios for a $5,000 investment and is skeptical of the bull case, arguing AI may become a commodity.
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