News about IPO

Third-quarter earnings from Netflix, Meta Platforms, IBM and Western Digital this week are expected to set the tone for tech stocks. Netflix is forecast to lift revenue 12% to $12.88 billion and EPS 40% to $0.82, while Meta's revenue is expected to rise 24% to $63.39 billion, with investors watching its Muse AI tools closely. Western Digital's results may indicate whether memory demand is durable. Bloomberg reported that Nscale faces investor resistance to the $30 billion valuation it seeks for its IPO, with a group of investors urging $16–19 billion, after Microsoft exited a UK data center deal over power-related delays. Product events from Nvidia, Cloudflare and Oracle are also on the calendar, following a week in which SOXX fell 11.8%.

Elon Musk suggested Anthropic should distribute its shares directly to the public, responding to the company's plan to commit 5% of its equity to a new Public Benefit Fund, which could rise by 2% for every 50% increase in valuation above a baseline. Co-founders pledged to donate 80% of their equity, and Anthropic committed $200 million to address AI-driven labor disruption. Critics including David Sacks and investor Vijar Kohli questioned whether the LLC structure serves the public good or could dilute voting rights and complicate the IPO. Anthropic, which confidentially filed for a U.S. listing in June, reported third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion, up 45% from the previous quarter, but some investors are discussing a valuation near $1.5 trillion, below earlier expectations of $2 trillion.

Anthropic reportedly told investors at a private day that its revenue reached $16.8 billion for the three months ended Sept. 30, up 50% quarter over quarter, and that it was cash-flow positive and adjusted-profitable. That growth is slower than the 140% gain seen between the first and second quarters, and Jefferies had reportedly expected an annual revenue run rate of at least $80 billion. The company has delayed its IPO registration statement twice amid AI safety concerns and very heavy infrastructure spending. A Saxo Markets strategist says a valuation above $2 trillion would be about 30 times annualized Q3 revenue, making valuation the main debate. The article argues investors are now asking tougher questions about funding, cost of capital and returns, so these results may not impress them much.

The Jio Platforms IPO, worth Rs 30,213 crore, opens for subscription on October 21 and closes October 23 at a price band of Rs 1,065 to Rs 1,119 per share, and at the upper end would be India's largest IPO to date. The issue consists entirely of fresh shares, with up to Rs 27,500 crore earmarked for repaying borrowings of Reliance Jio Infocomm. Investors will also watch September-quarter earnings from banks such as ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank, along with crude oil prices, foreign investor outflows and the rupee. The Nifty 50 rose 2.8% to 23,146.15 and the Sensex gained 3.1% to 74,729.27 on October 16, as Indian equities posted their strongest weekly performance in six months, led by IT stocks. The RBI Monetary Policy Committee minutes are scheduled for October 21.

U.S. stocks have climbed for most of the past four years, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite repeatedly hitting record closes, driven by AI infrastructure spending, record IPOs and better-than-expected earnings. The article highlights outstanding margin debt, the money investors borrow from brokers to buy or short-sell securities, as a telling gauge of risk appetite, reported monthly by FINRA. Since 1997, margin debt has risen by at least 65% over a short period four times, and the previous three spikes preceded major bear markets, with the S&P 500 down 49% by October 2002 and 57% by March 2009. The latest spike, from April 2025 to June 2026, lifted margin debt 77% to a record $1.502 trillion, which the article says is a warning sign for stocks in the short term. Still, it notes that over the long run, stocks have historically delivered considerably higher average annual returns than bonds, commodities and real estate.