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- Anthropic Reportedly Posted Quarterly Revenue Growth of 50% and Was Cash-Flow Positive. Here's Why It Might Not Be Enough to Impress Investors Before the Company's Massive IPO
Anthropic reportedly told investors at a private day that its revenue reached $16.8 billion for the three months ended Sept. 30, up 50% quarter over quarter, and that it was cash-flow positive and adjusted-profitable. That growth is slower than the 140% gain seen between the first and second quarters, and Jefferies had reportedly expected an annual revenue run rate of at least $80 billion. The company has delayed its IPO registration statement twice amid AI safety concerns and very heavy infrastructure spending. A Saxo Markets strategist says a valuation above $2 trillion would be about 30 times annualized Q3 revenue, making valuation the main debate. The article argues investors are now asking tougher questions about funding, cost of capital and returns, so these results may not impress them much.
- Anthropic Eyes IPO as It Projects AI Adding Trillions to US GDP
Kalshi traders put 70% odds on an Anthropic listing before year-end, which would be the first public pure-play frontier AI lab. Anthropic says AI could push US GDP to $44 trillion by 2030. The feed also covers other markets: the KBW Bank Index has fallen six straight weeks, down 11%, its longest such streak since 2008; the US FY2026 deficit reached $1.99T, with net interest at $1.36T; and Amazon has deployed over 1 million robots while employing 1.5 million humans. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says classical computing is about a third of its business and growing 30 to 40% a year, and critics say an Anthropic-written AI safety bill, with a 10²⁵ FLOPs threshold, could sweep in smaller startups.
- Anthropic is AI trade's last big hope for a major IPO this year
Investors had expected a wave of major 2026 IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, but several offerings have been postponed and OpenAI has ruled out listing this year. On prediction market Kalshi, Anthropic, which confidentially filed a prospectus with the SEC in early June, is the only major company with better-than-even odds (75% as of Monday morning) of officially announcing an IPO this year. Odds for others have fallen sharply, such as Plaid (from 50% to 10%) and Databricks (from over 50% to 1%). Although IPO proceeds are up thanks to megacap debuts like SpaceX, the number of U.S. IPOs priced this year is down 33% from 2025, according to Renaissance Capital. Anthropic's third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion showed slower growth, and a revised IPO valuation range starting at $1.5T, instead of the earlier expected at least $2T, was viewed as disappointing.
- Can Anthropic's Shadow Board Cripple Its IPO?
Anthropic's IPO documents show the Long-Term Benefit Trust (LTBT), which holds only 5% of shares, can appoint most of the board, including four members, and can block some corporate actions. It also has a say in debt issuance and in selling more than half the company. Its mandate is to steer AI for humanity's long-term benefit, and it has appointed former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke and Neil Buddy Shah, CEO of the Clinton Health Access Initiative. The article asks what happens if the trust views a management decision as not serving long-term benefit, while Anthropic competes with Chinese AI advances and OpenAI. IPO investors may see this as a risk to Anthropic's ability to innovate, and the federal government has so far stayed out of this governance.
- Anthropic IPO: Musk Wants AI Firm To Hand Shares Directly To Public, Says 'This Is What I Will Be Doing'
Elon Musk suggested Anthropic should distribute its shares directly to the public, responding to the company's plan to commit 5% of its equity to a new Public Benefit Fund, which could rise by 2% for every 50% increase in valuation above a baseline. Co-founders pledged to donate 80% of their equity, and Anthropic committed $200 million to address AI-driven labor disruption. Critics including David Sacks and investor Vijar Kohli questioned whether the LLC structure serves the public good or could dilute voting rights and complicate the IPO. Anthropic, which confidentially filed for a U.S. listing in June, reported third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion, up 45% from the previous quarter, but some investors are discussing a valuation near $1.5 trillion, below earlier expectations of $2 trillion.
- Stocks bounce back, Anthropic's "Public Benefits", and Musk's promise to American kids
The 8:30 show, hosted by Julie Hyman, Pras Subramanian and Jake Conley, discusses the stock market's rebound. Other topics include Anthropic's (ANTH.PVT) commitment to a “Public Benefit” fund, Elon Musk's promise to American children about SpaceX (SPCX) stock ahead of earnings, and doubts over an IPO after Microsoft (MSFT) withdrew.
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