News about SPY

During the week of October 12–16, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) rose 5%, its best week since February, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 1.97% and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) dropped 5.5%. Cracker Barrel (CBRL) gained 20% on the week, extending a 171% year-to-date surge after a leadership change and the reversal of an unpopular rebrand; its fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.99 beat the $0.18 estimate. Signet Jewelers (SIG) rose 12.6% on reports it is in advanced talks to join a consortium buying De Beers, and VF Corp. (VFC) gained 12% after Truist upgraded it to Buy. On the downside, Kandi Technologies (KNDI) plunged 38% to a near six-year low as it announced a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, Six Flags (FUN) fell 29% to a six-year low after a visitor's death at its Georgia park, and Newsmax (NMAX) lost over 15%.

Asian shares fell on Monday, October 19, as worries about AI's huge funding needs weighed ahead of a busy earnings week, while the euro eased after rioting in France. Oil prices dropped after Trump waived some Russia sanctions, though he later said no final decision had been made, with Brent down 1.6% to US$108.06 a barrel; Iran also reported another tanker hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz. Tech weakness hit Asia, with Japan's Nikkei down 2.0% and South Korea down 1.6%, after the PHLX Semiconductor Index shed 11.4% last week, its longest losing streak since 2008. Goldman Sachs estimates five AI hyperscalers will lift capital spending to about US$1.2 trillion next year, while AMP economist My Bui warned that rising yields raise financing costs. Gold rose 0.4% to US$4,181 an ounce as yields fell.

U.S. stock index futures rose overnight ahead of Monday after a rough week, as investors looked to Big Tech earnings to restore momentum amid fears of an AI bubble. As of 11:30 p.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.8%, Nasdaq futures rose more than 1%, and Dow futures gained 0.5%. Last week the Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 4.5% and the S&P 500 dropped 1.95%, their worst weeks since early June, while the Dow rose 0.67% for its second straight weekly gain. Netflix, SpaceX, Tesla and Meta report this week, with Meta expected to post EPS of $6.58 on revenue of $63.34 billion. Oil eased, with Brent falling nearly 1.9% to $107.88 a barrel, while retail sentiment on Stocktwits was neutral on QQQ and bearish on SPY and DIA.

A broad sell-off in technology stocks pushed Wall Street lower, with the S&P 500 down 1.1% and the Nasdaq down 2.1%, leaving the S&P 500 about 2% lower for the week and erasing last week's record gains. Chipmakers including Micron, AMD, Broadcom and Intel led the declines amid doubts about how long the AI spending boom can last, as tech giants that rely on debt may struggle to keep borrowing while bond yields climb. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.09% but had topped 5.30% earlier this month, its highest since 2002, and traders now see a 74.3% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, up from 50.2% a month ago. Brent crude jumped 3.7% to $109.86 a barrel as the Iran war continues without a U.S.-Iran deal. The Australian sharemarket was set to edge lower, with futures pointing to a loss of 11 points (0.1%).

Wall Street closed lower as a broad tech sell-off pushed the S&P 500 down 1.1%, the Nasdaq down 2.1% and the Dow down 0.3%. The S&P 500 lost about 2% for the week, erasing the gains it made last week when it set an all-time high. Chipmakers including Micron, AMD, Broadcom and Intel led the declines amid worries that the AI spending boom may not last and that big tech may struggle to keep borrowing as bond yields climb. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.09% but had topped 5.30% earlier this month, while CME Group data showed the odds of a Fed rate hike in December jumping to 74.3%. Brent crude rose 3.7% to $109.86 a barrel as there is still no U.S.–Iran deal to end the war.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.06% on October 15, its first close above 5% since July 19, 2007, a level viewed as a key anchor for pricing across the economy. The article compares this with 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% in the following 12 months and 11% over the next five years, after yields had risen 26% in the prior four years. Yields have also climbed 26% in the past year as the central bank raises rates to fight stubborn inflation. Key differences include a normal yield curve today versus an inverted one in 2007, stricter bank rules after Dodd-Frank, and a stock market dominated by profitable tech firms. The article argues investors should stay focused on high-quality companies for the long term.

Share markets have held up well despite rising interest rates, with the ASX 200 flat and the NZX 50 up about 2%, while conservative assets fell as rates rose. Markets expect S&P 500 earnings growth of almost 30% in the upcoming reporting season, and the index's 12-month forward P/E of 19.1 is in line with its 10-year average. Central banks may keep tightening: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate is expected to finish the year at 3%, up from 2.75% today, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.4%, its highest since 2002. The article notes that the December quarter has historically been the strongest for US shares, averaging a 3.1% gain since 1930. It also compares today's backdrop to 2018, when the S&P 500 fell 14% in the last three months of that year.

Wall Street faces a tug-of-war as booming earnings for technology and energy firms collide with a relentless rise in bond yields, which have reached their highest levels in decades. Analysts expect earnings to keep soaring on AI data center build-outs, while oil prices, pushed into triple-digit territory by the war with Iran, add pressure on consumers. The market has split into AI and non-AI stocks, and AI stocks sold off last week as Treasury yields fell and investors questioned the AI-driven growth story. Valuations have slumped: the S&P 500 trades at 19 times expected earnings, below its five-year and 10-year averages, according to FactSet. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer said earnings growth and the rising cost of capital are in a race to determine stock prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have hit several record closing highs over the past four years, driven by AI infrastructure spending, record-breaking IPOs and better-than-expected earnings. The article highlights outstanding margin debt, reported monthly by FINRA, as a measure of investor risk-taking, since borrowing can magnify both gains and losses. Since 1997, margin debt has surged at least 65% over a short period four times, and the three earlier episodes preceded major bear markets, including the dot-com crash, the financial crisis and the 2022 downturn. From April 2025 to June 2026, margin debt rose 77% to an all-time high of $1.502 trillion, which the article says could foreshadow trouble for stocks, though long-term investors have historically benefited.

The article notes the US stock market has rallied for roughly four years, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting several record closes, driven by AI infrastructure spending, record IPOs and better-than-expected earnings. It focuses on outstanding margin debt, the money investors borrow from brokers to buy or short-sell securities, which FINRA reports monthly as a gauge of risk-taking. Since 1997, margin debt has jumped at least 65% over a short period four times, and the previous three were followed by major bear markets, including the dot-com crash, the financial crisis and the 2022 downturn. The latest episode, from April 2025 to June 2026, lifted margin debt 77% to a record 1.502 trillion USD. While the article warns of short-term risks, it also notes stocks have historically delivered higher average annual returns than other asset classes, so long-term investors may view the picture differently.

U.S. stocks have climbed for most of the past four years, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite repeatedly hitting record closes, driven by AI infrastructure spending, record IPOs and better-than-expected earnings. The article highlights outstanding margin debt, the money investors borrow from brokers to buy or short-sell securities, as a telling gauge of risk appetite, reported monthly by FINRA. Since 1997, margin debt has risen by at least 65% over a short period four times, and the previous three spikes preceded major bear markets, with the S&P 500 down 49% by October 2002 and 57% by March 2009. The latest spike, from April 2025 to June 2026, lifted margin debt 77% to a record $1.502 trillion, which the article says is a warning sign for stocks in the short term. Still, it notes that over the long run, stocks have historically delivered considerably higher average annual returns than bonds, commodities and real estate.