Duquesne Family Office, led by billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, increased its Revolution Medicines stake by 26.5% in the second quarter, before the company's Rasonque won U.S. approval in August for certain pancreatic cancer patients. In a Phase 3 study, Rasonque achieved median overall survival of 13.2 months versus 6.7 months for chemotherapy, and some estimates project it could generate $15.1 billion in revenue by 2034 from pancreatic cancer alone. Some estimates put the number of U.S. patients diagnosed annually with metastatic pancreatic cancer at 55,000, with about 19,000 moving on to second-line treatment; assuming a roughly 30% net discount, the opportunity is nearly $3 billion a year. With a market cap of about $40 billion that has fallen since approval, the author says that at a 12% required rate of return and a forward price-to-sales ratio of 4 by 2031, revenue would need to reach $17.62 billion in 2032 to justify the current valuation. The author says they would seriously consider investing if the market cap falls by another $5 billion, citing clinical, regulatory and biotech volatility risks.
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