News about Fed

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly said the Fed had 'removed a dose of accommodation' at its September meeting, a signal that inflation remains a concern. September producer prices rose 6.3% on a headline basis and 5% on a core basis, above expectations, though headline inflation had eased from its 4.2% peak in May. The Fed voted 12-0 on Sept. 16 to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and the author argues further hikes could come in December and through 2027. Because much AI infrastructure spending is partly debt-financed, the author warns that rising borrowing costs could slow AI growth, noting the market is the second-priciest in history.

Motilal Oswal analyst Manav Modi says gold is seeing a range-bound bias, having fallen sharply from a September high of around Rs 163,000–165,000 and now consolidating near Rs 148,000. Immediate support is at Rs 147,500, then Rs 146,000–145,500, while resistance sits at Rs 148,800–149,000 and then Rs 150,000–150,500. Gold trades near $4,175 with a resilient tone, supported by ETF inflows of around 187 tonnes in August and September, Chinese demand, and central-bank buying estimated at 250–300 tonnes in Q3, though elevated real yields remain the main near-term headwind. Investors are watching the upcoming Fed meeting and PCE inflation data, as cautious comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have cut expectations for an October hike below 20%.

On the afternoon of 19/10, domestic gold prices fell by 500 to 800 thousand VND per tael. SJC's 9999 gold rings fell 800,000 VND to 139.3–142.3 million VND per tael, PNJ fell 700,000 VND, DOJI held at 139.1–143.1 million VND, and Bảo Tín Minh Châu rose slightly. Gold bars at SJC, PNJ, DOJI and Bảo Tín Mạnh Hải fell 500,000 VND across the board to 140.1–143.1 million VND per tael, while Bảo Tín Minh Châu rose 100,000 VND on the buy side and fell 500,000 VND on the sell side. Internationally, gold traded around 4,160–4,180 USD per ounce as investors await US data and the Fed meeting on 27–28/10. From 16/10, gold purchases and sales of 5 million VND or more a day must be paid by non-cash means under Decree No. 390/2026/NĐ-CP.

Gold prices in Dubai edged higher on Monday as traders pared bets on a US Federal Reserve rate hike later this month, after remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh were read as favoring a pause. 24-karat gold traded at Dh504.25 per gram and 22-karat at Dh467, while 14-karat stayed below Dh300. Spot gold rose 0.42 per cent to $4,177.78 an ounce and silver gained 1.31 per cent to $57.56, while the chance of a quarter-point Fed hike fell below 20%. Gold has held above $4,000 an ounce since August and has seen gold-backed ETF inflows for 13 straight weeks, though it is still down roughly 20% since the US-Iran conflict began in late February.

This Dow Jones market headlines digest covers Ukraine's drone strike on a major Russian oil terminal and China's third-quarter economic growth of 4.5%, driven by exports. Putin has floated a summit with Trump and Xi on Ukraine that would exclude Zelensky, while Houthi attacks are making some Wall Street executives nervous about attending a Saudi investment conference. Other stories cover AI stock volatility, rising grocery and fuel prices, and silver's drop of more than 50% from its record high, which may signal an economic slowdown. China's $37 billion consumer subsidy program is boosting demand for smart gadgets, and markets expect the Fed to raise rates further even if it pauses, with a December hike in focus.

At 9.15am, the FBM KLCI had eased 8.42 points, or 0.52%, to 1,599.34 from Friday's close of 1,607.76. Decliners outnumbered advancers 423 to 103. Apex Securities expects the index to stay cautious in the near term, citing persistent foreign selling, global uncertainty, the recent sell-off in US tech and AI stocks, elevated oil prices and inflation, ahead of the US Federal Reserve's October 29 policy decision. Domestically, investors will watch Malaysia's third-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 5.3% and rising operating costs, especially for labour-intensive businesses.

At the midday update on 19/10, domestic gold prices fell across the board by 500–800 thousand VND per tael. Early on 19/10, gold bars at SJC, PNJ, DOJI and Bao Tin Manh Hai were quoted at 140.6–143.6 million VND per tael, while Bao Tin Minh Chau was at 138.6–143.6 million. From 16/10, gold businesses must use non-cash payment for buy and sell transactions of 5 million VND or more per day under Decree 390/2026/NĐ-CP. Internationally, gold traded around 4,160–4,180 USD per ounce as investors watched U.S. economic data and the Fed's rate outlook, and the market still leans toward the Fed holding rates at its October 27–28 meeting. S&P Global's preliminary October composite PMI is being watched as a signal of inflation pressure.

Global markets rallied on Monday as stronger-than-expected China data and lower oil prices revived risk appetite. Bitcoin traded near $82,500, Nasdaq futures rose more than 1%, Japan's Nikkei gained 1.8% and South Korea's Kospi 0.6%, rebounding from last week's AI-related tech losses. China's GDP grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, faster than 4.3% in the second quarter, and retail sales rose 1.1%, above the 0.5% expected. Oil fell on both sides of the Atlantic, gold was little changed near $4,180, and the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates in the 4.75% to 5% range this month.

Gold rose on Monday as investors scaled back expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October following remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Spot gold climbed 0.2% to $4,173.59 per ounce, silver, platinum and palladium also gained, and traders cut the probability of a 25-basis-point hike below 20%. Gold has held above $4,000 since August but remains about 20% below its level before the U.S.-Iran conflict began in February. ANZ sees fiscal concerns, Chinese demand and central bank diversification supporting gold over the longer term, while elevated yields and dollar strength limit near-term upside, and it forecasts bullion could exceed $5,000 per ounce in 2027.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,173.59 an ounce on Monday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks were read as supporting a hold at next week’s meeting. Traders cut the implied chance of a rate hike to below 20%, reversing the revived hike bets that followed a stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation reading. Gold has stayed above $4,000 an ounce since August, but it is down about a fifth since the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted in late February. ANZ sees gold’s upside capped in the short term, though it expects prices to top $5,000 an ounce in 2027, supported by Chinese investors and central-bank diversification.

Domestic gold bar and ring prices fell 500–800 thousand VND per tael across SJC, PNJ, DOJI, Bảo Tín Minh Châu and Bảo Tín Mạnh Hải in the midday update on October 19. Early that morning, gold bars at SJC, PNJ, DOJI and Bảo Tín Mạnh Hải were quoted at 140.6–143.6 million VND per tael, while Bảo Tín Minh Châu quoted 138.6–143.6 million. From October 16, gold purchases and sales of 5 million VND or more in a day must be paid by non-cash means under Decree 390/2026/NĐ-CP. Internationally, gold traded around 4,160–4,180 USD per ounce as investors watched US economic data and the Fed's rate outlook ahead of its October 27–28 meeting. The market still leans toward the Fed holding rates steady, but persistent inflation keeps expectations of a rate hike before year-end elevated.

US stock futures rose and oil edged lower as traders prepared for a busy earnings week, with more than 70 S&P 500 companies reporting, including Tesla and Meta. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% on Friday, its worst week since June, while the VIX jumped to a four-month high as tech shares slumped. Brent crude fell 0.7% to near $110 a barrel, adding to inflation worries and complicating the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's Oct. 28 decision. Investors are watching whether heavy AI infrastructure spending will deliver adequate returns, while geopolitical risks rise amid strained US-Ukraine relations. Analysts describe a period of heightened uncertainty, with Asia especially exposed to chips, higher yields and energy prices.

The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is 3.6%, which the article calls fairly large by historical standards and the fifth-highest in 35 years. Average monthly benefits for retired workers were about $2,087.52 in August, roughly $25,050 a year, so the increase adds about $901.80 annually. The higher adjustment follows the Iran war, which pushed oil prices and inflation up and led the Federal Reserve to raise rates once, with another hike expected before year-end. The Senior Citizens League says 2026 benefits are worth only about $0.836 on the dollar compared with 2016, a 13.7% loss in purchasing power over a decade, and argues a CPI-E measure would better reflect seniors' costs. The article concludes that high COLAs may not fully solve affordability problems for retirees.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.06% on October 15, its first close above 5% since July 19, 2007, a level viewed as a key anchor for pricing across the economy. The article compares this with 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% in the following 12 months and 11% over the next five years, after yields had risen 26% in the prior four years. Yields have also climbed 26% in the past year as the central bank raises rates to fight stubborn inflation. Key differences include a normal yield curve today versus an inverted one in 2007, stricter bank rules after Dodd-Frank, and a stock market dominated by profitable tech firms. The article argues investors should stay focused on high-quality companies for the long term.

The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is 3.6%, well above expectations at the start of 2026, and would add about $901.80 a year to average retiree benefits of roughly $25,050. It is based on CPI-W data for July to September, and the article links the higher inflation to the Iran war, which pushed up oil prices and led the Federal Reserve to raise rates once, with another hike expected before year-end. The 3.6% figure is the fifth-highest COLA in 35 years, following 5.9% in 2021 and 8.7% in 2022. Still, the Senior Citizens League found benefits in 2026 were worth only about $0.836 on the dollar compared with 2016, a 13.7% loss in purchasing power that it partly attributes to the CPI-W formula. The article concludes that high COLAs have helped somewhat but likely will not solve retirees' affordability problems.

Bùi Văn Huy, General Director of FIDT, believes the VN-Index is accumulating around 1,700 points, with a bottom likely forming within about 20 points, most likely as a "flat bottom" rather than a V-shaped recovery. The market P/E is about 13 times forward 2027 earnings, or about 10 times excluding five Vingroup-group stocks. Interest rate pressure remains: the Fed raised rates in September to 3.75–4%, US inflation rose to 3.7%, and Vietnam's CPI rose 5.08% in September, while 12-month deposit rates at many private banks kept climbing. Although GDP grew 9.95% in Q3 2026, he says the market is pricing in the capital cost of that growth, and the biggest risk is a Fed hike stronger than expected.

US tech stocks fell sharply last week, with the Nasdaq 100 down 5.5%, the S&P 500 down 2% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 11.4%. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan compared speculative AI investing to casino gambling, while the article flags worries over heavy capital spending and rising debt, such as CoreWeave's roughly $50 billion in borrowings. US inflation reached 3.7% in September and Brent crude hit $112 a barrel, leaving the Federal Reserve less room to maneuver. Still, 70% of S&P 500 stocks rose on the week as money rotated into energy, utilities and consumer staples. Global tech equity funds saw $4.75 billion in outflows, emerging-market equity funds drew $717 million, and the PSEi rose 2.1% to 5,782.70.

On October 15, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.06%, having crossed 5% about three weeks earlier for the first time since July 19, 2007. The article draws parallels to 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% over the next 12 months and 11% over the following five years, after the yield had risen 26% in the prior four years. Today the yield has risen 26% over the past 12 months as the Federal Reserve raises rates against stubborn inflation, and the S&P 500 sits near record highs. Key differences, however, include stricter bank rules since the Dodd-Frank Act of July 2010, a normal yield curve instead of an inverted one, and an index led by profitable tech giants. The article concludes that long-term investors should stay the course and invest early and often.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $228.6 million this week, following $681.1 million the week before, according to SoSoValue. Outflows exceeded inflows on three of five trading days, with Wednesday's $261.4 million redemption the worst session, coinciding with a hotter-than-expected September CPI reading of 3.7%. A hot producer price figure followed, reviving bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 as nearly $950 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated. Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev said the drop pushed Bitcoin below the average ETF holder's cost basis near $82,300. The funds are down about $615 million for October, though cumulative net inflows since launch remain $57.3 billion.

Consumer prices in the U.S. rose again in September 2026: CPI climbed to 3.7% year-over-year from 3.4% in August, mainly driven by a 9.1% jump in gasoline prices in a single month. Core inflation also edged up from 2.4% to 2.6%. Wholesale diesel prices soared 21% in one month, and the average retail diesel price hit $6.32 per gallon by mid-October, nearly double the $3.66 a year earlier, according to AAA; experts warn that transport costs will feed into the prices of other goods. Retail sales still rose 0.8% in September, but excluding gasoline they rose only 0.2%. The labor market is showing signs of weakening: the economy added just 29,000 jobs in September versus 90,000 expected, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and inflation-adjusted weekly paychecks fell year-over-year for the first time since May. The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September, its first hike since 2023, and 16 of 18 officials are considering at least one more hike, while the 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.46% by mid-October.

The share of the roughly 175 CPI categories rising faster than a 3% annual pace over the past six months fell to about 38%, down from 56% in May and the fewest since spring 2025, according to Yahoo Finance calculations from BLS data. Electricity, rent, hospital services and car repairs are still rising faster than that pace, and gasoline is up about 34% from a year ago. Groceries rose less than 2% over the past year but remain nearly a third above December 2019 levels, while electricity is up 43% over the same period. Markets priced the chance of a hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting at about 17%, down from roughly 33% after the CPI report. The article says a six-month count below 40% would strengthen the case for waiting, and that rent and electricity are the key categories to watch.

The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States, created by Congress in 1913 after a series of banking panics. Its dual mandate is maximum employment and stable prices, with stable prices defined since 2012 as 2% annual inflation measured by the PCE index. The Federal Open Market Committee, with twelve voting members, meets eight times a year to set the federal funds rate, its main tool; raising rates slows borrowing and inflation but risks recession, while cutting rates supports jobs but may lift inflation. During the 2008 crisis and the 2020 pandemic, the Fed bought Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to push down long-term rates, and it also serves as lender of last resort, bank supervisor and operator of payment systems such as FedNow, launched in 2023. It does not set tax or spending policy and cannot target individual prices like gas or groceries.

When news reports inflation at 3%, it usually means the Consumer Price Index rose 3% over twelve months, a figure that drives Social Security raises, tax brackets and Federal Reserve decisions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks a fixed basket of goods and services, with housing roughly a third of the index, and for homeowners it uses an estimate of what owners would pay in rent rather than house prices or mortgages, so housing lags market rents by many months. The PCE index, which defines the Fed's 2% target, usually runs a few tenths of a point below CPI because it covers broader spending. Individual price experience differs because people's baskets vary, frequent purchases like gas and groceries stand out, and prices that rose do not fall back when inflation slows. BLS quality adjustments, such as a faster laptop at the same price, are also invisible to shoppers.

The Federal Reserve, Ethereum Foundation and Deribit have scheduled three events between October 26 and 30. Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade is set to activate on the Hoodi testnet at 1:42:48 p.m. ET (17:42:48 UTC) on October 26, raising its gas limit to 200 million; it already activated on Sepolia on October 6, but no mainnet date has been set. The FOMC is scheduled to meet October 27-28, with a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, and the federal funds target range currently sits at 3.75%-4.00% after a 25-basis-point increase on September 17. Deribit's monthly BTC and ETH options expire October 30 at 4 a.m. ET (08:00 UTC), with inverse-option delivery prices based on a time-weighted average of its index over the final 30 minutes.

The Federal Reserve's 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, released on 9 October 2026, found that a record 37% of US families lacked a good idea of their income for the following year, up since the 2019 survey. Even so, the share of families reporting unusually high or low income fell from 28% in 2022 to 23% in 2025, and real median family income rose 7% from 2021 to 2024, to $82,200. Over the same period, the unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 4.2%, and the share of families with overdue loan payments climbed from about 12% to almost 20%. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3 in October 2026, and the report does not establish why families became more uncertain or whether they were unemployed or facing income losses.

Robertson Stephens Wealth Management LLC reduced its SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) stake by 2.8% in the third quarter, selling 2,553 shares and holding 89,846 shares worth about $34,217,000, or roughly 0.8% of its portfolio. GLD opened at $382.01 on Friday as gold recovered from a selloff on falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar, though hot U.S. inflation data (September CPI at 3.7% and PPI rising 6.3%) kept December Fed tightening expectations alive. Gold has held a roughly $4,000 demand zone, but it faces resistance at $4,200–$4,226. The article also notes that China's central bank added 23 tonnes to its reserves, which may support prices over the longer term.