DWF Labs research covering 694 trading days since January 2024 finds that flows into and out of US spot Bitcoin ETFs follow past price moves rather than predict future returns. Investors pulled money in seven of the eight drops of at least 15%, and all nine rallies of that size drew net inflows. Daily flows had a correlation of 0.54 with price changes over the previous five sessions but only 0.03 with the following five. Net outflows were heaviest at $6.9 billion from October 2025 to February 2026 and $8.2 billion during the May–June decline, though the data does not show whether institutions or retail investors were selling. Sell-offs of 15% or more have become less frequent, at about three a year since the ETFs launched versus about four a year in 2022–2023.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Cointelegraph ↗
Keywords
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
BTC/USDT
• NeutralBitcoin
Relevance: low
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Layer 1 |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 84,093.42 |
| Change that session | +1.28% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Bitcoin ETFs bag another $528M, taking 3-day haul past $1B
US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $528 million in net inflows on Wednesday, pushing their three-session inflow total to $1.08 billion, according to SoSoValue data. October net inflows reached about $461 million, bringing year-to-date net inflows to $1.34 billion, after two weeks of withdrawals totaling $228 million and $681 million. BlackRock's IBIT led the day with $235 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC with about $213 million. Bitcoin briefly rose above $84,700 before pulling back to $82,485 at the time of publication. Among altcoin ETFs, Ether ETFs posted $15 million in net inflows after a five-session outflow streak, while Solana and XRP ETFs also recorded modest inflows.
- Bitcoin ETFs attract $1.08 billion in 3 days but it may not be enough for a steep rally
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs drew more than $1 billion in investor money this week, according to SoSoValue, a sign of renewed but still tentative institutional demand. Bitcoin's three steep rallies since January 2024 coincided with average daily ETF inflows above $200 million, while the pace since July 1 has been about $86 million a day, with no single day of $1 billion or more. Since July 1, bitcoin has risen 39%, from about $60,000 to $83,500. Analysts say a sustained rally would likely need steadier inflows, although futures trading and direct spot purchases can also push prices higher.
- Bitcoin Price Analysis: Recent Buyers Break Even Near $87,700. Could Their Selling Stop BTC’s Rally?
Glassnode data puts the average cost basis of recent Bitcoin buyers at about $87,700, and many may sell once the price returns there. As of October 21, 2026, Bitcoin traded at $83,495, up 2.5% over the day, which puts potential selling pressure about 5% above the current price. Bitcoin has failed below the $87,700 area three times, peaking at $87,397, $87,283 and $87,249 and closing lower each time, even though it rallied 27.7% over the last 90 days. The article notes that an average hides a wide price range and that much trading happens off-chain, while spot ETF inflows swung from $526.6 million on October 19 to $23.2 million on October 20. K33 notes 28-day volatility has fallen to 1.2%, and Bitcoin remains above its 50-day moving average of $81,567.
- Bitcoin ETFs Post Their Best Day in Nearly a Month as BlackRock Does All the Buying
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $526.7 million on Oct. 19, their largest single-day inflow since $714.7 million on Sept. 22, ending two weeks of selling that shed about $910 million. BlackRock's IBIT took in $665.2 million, while Fidelity's FBTC lost $83.6 million and Grayscale's GBTC lost $54.9 million, cutting October's net outflows to roughly $88 million from about $615 million. Ethereum ETFs lost $103 million and Solana ETFs $6.7 million the same day, while Bitcoin hovered near $82,000, close to the $82,300 average cost basis estimated for ETF holders. The article links the broader pressure to expected Federal Reserve rate hikes, citing a 3.7% CPI rise over 12 months, a 20.4% jump in energy prices, and a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% that competes with yield-free Bitcoin.
- Equity weakness could damp demand for bitcoin after biggest ETF inflows in a month
Bitcoin fell about 1.1%, ether dropped 1.7% and the CoinDesk 20 index lost roughly 1.6% over the past 24 hours, pulled lower by Asian stock declines and rising oil. QCP Capital warned that further equity weakness could damp crypto demand and threaten the $80,000 support level if sustained. Still, spot U.S. bitcoin ETFs drew about $527 million in net inflows on Monday, their biggest in a month, with BlackRock's IBIT taking in $665 million while Fidelity and Grayscale saw outflows. Ether ETFs lost $103.3 million, their fourth straight day of outflows. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5.13% and Brent is near $110, while prediction markets price in a 25 basis-point Fed rate hike next month.
- US Bitcoin ETFs draw $527M in biggest showing since September
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $526.7 million in net inflows on Monday, their largest daily intake in nearly a month and the strongest since Sept. 22, after two weeks of net weekly withdrawals. BlackRock's IBIT led with $665.2 million in inflows, offsetting $83.6 million in withdrawals from Fidelity's FBTC and $54.9 million from Grayscale's GBTC, while other funds recorded no net flows. Despite the rebound, spot Bitcoin ETFs remain about $88 million negative for October. Spot Ether ETFs saw $103.3 million in net outflows on Monday, led by $95.4 million from BlackRock's ETHA, marking their third consecutive week of net withdrawals.
Related markets
Latest news
- Apple's $1,999 iPhone Duo hits stores Friday amid limited supplies
Apple's first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, goes on sale Friday at a starting price of $1,999, but supply is tight. Pre-orders sold out almost immediately and delivery times now stretch into late January, while Apple Stores have only limited units for walk-in customers. Scalpers are reselling the phone on sites like eBay for more than $4,000. The iPhone generated $209.58 billion of Apple's $416.16 billion revenue in 2025, well ahead of Services at $109.15 billion.
- Could California's billionaire tax hit Mark Zuckerberg?
Hosts Julie Hyman, Pras Subramanian and Jake Conley discuss California's proposed one-time 5% billionaire wealth tax and its possible impact on Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg. They note the tax has not passed, but say the uncertainty appears to be weighing on Meta shares. Based on the company's filings, the panel describes how Zuckerberg raised the possibility of leaving California and how the board moved to address it, which they see as evidence the board is not disinterested. They also acknowledge the argument that Zuckerberg's central role in Meta's AI efforts makes his departure a stability risk, while pointing out that Sergey Brin has left California.
- Spotify Jumps 10% as Premium Subscriber Growth Tops Forecasts; Sirius XM Stays Put
Spotify shares rose about 10% to $579.49 after the company reported Q3 2026 Premium subscribers of 306 million, 1 million above its guidance, with 6 million net additions and growth in every region. Management guided to 316 million subscribers and €820 million in operating income for Q4, and credited audiobooks with lifting acquisition and retention. Revenue rose 16.3% to $5.58 billion, but GAAP diluted EPS of $2.79 missed the $2.85 consensus due to higher share-based compensation charges, and operating expenses grew 26%. Sirius XM was roughly flat at $26.85, down 0.4%, reflecting different business models: Spotify relies mainly on streaming subscriptions, while Sirius XM sells radio subscriptions largely through vehicles.
- American Airlines Sinks 4% as Fuel Costs Push Outlook to Full-Year Loss; Delta and United Airlines Drop 3%
American Airlines fell about 4% to $11.72 after reporting record Q3 2026 revenue of $16.34 billion and an adjusted loss of $0.28 per share, smaller than the $0.33 expected. Its outlook worsened, with a full-year adjusted loss now forecast at $1 to $1.60 per share, replacing July guidance that ranged from a $0.65 loss to a $0.65 profit. The Q4 plan assumes jet fuel at $4.70 a gallon, after Q3 jet fuel costs rose 67.5% to $4.63 billion as the average price climbed to $3.85 from $2.37. Premium revenue grew 22.9% and managed corporate sales 27.6%, but the airline carries $29.6 billion in debt and finance leases against a $4.2 billion stockholders' equity deficit. Delta and United Airlines, exposed to the same fuel market, fell about 3%.
- DeepSeek Completes Nearly $15 Billion Funding Round, Largest Ever in China
Chinese AI startup DeepSeek is finalizing a funding round of about 100 billion yuan (US$14.98 billion) from existing and new investors, including Tencent and CATL, according to Reuters citing sources. The round values the company at 500 billion yuan (about $74.9 billion) before the new capital, and its size is double the initial target of 50 billion yuan. Other participants include Midea, Meituan, Geely and GigaDevice, with more than 15 investors in total. The terms and investor list are not final and the deal is expected to close within days, while DeepSeek, CATL and Tencent have not commented. The move follows DeepSeek's hiring of CITIC Securities in September to prepare a potential IPO on China's STAR Market.
- Tesla and SpaceX Held On to All 30,221 Bitcoin in Q3. Is Elon Musk Still Bullish on BTC?
As of September 30, Tesla and SpaceX together held all 30,221 Bitcoin, worth about $2.53 billion, without buying or selling any coins in Q3 2026. Tesla holds 11,509 BTC ($962 million) and SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC (about $1.57 billion). Tesla reported net income of $787 million, down 42.7% from a year earlier, and a roughly $290 million Bitcoin mark-to-market gain on its books accounted for more than a third of that figure. Bitcoin later fell back to about $81,881, roughly 35% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. The article says Tesla's unchanged holdings since 2022 point to inertia rather than renewed conviction, and neither company has announced plans to buy or sell.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.