The 10-year Treasury yield has risen more than 100 basis points in 2026, including 50 basis points since early September, lifting long-term yields to levels not seen in nearly a quarter-century. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is down another 8% year to date and sits 45% below its 2020 high. The article cites higher oil prices from the Iran war (Brent near $110 a barrel), a 0.4% month-over-month rise in August inflation, and soaring government debt as key drivers. It notes core inflation at 2.4% year over year and argues that a Fed rate hike would do little to fix a supply-driven energy problem. The author contends that bond yields are now far higher than the roughly 2%–3% yields on the AGG fund in earlier years, with AGG now yielding 5.1%, and suggests considering a small shift of a portfolio into bonds.
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