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- Brazil Judge Bars Flávio Bolsonaro Boosting Lula Video
On 14 October, Judge André Mendonça of Brazil's electoral court barred Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign from paying to promote a video attacking Lula and gave Meta three hours to stop the paid boost on Instagram and Facebook. The video can stay online without payment, but the campaign cannot pay to spread it or run new ads with the same caption. The request came from Lula's coalition, Brasil Pronto Pra Mais, and the single-judge decision has been referred to the full electoral court. The campaign had earlier been fined 5,000 reais (about US$990) in the first round for a piece with the same caption, ahead of the runoff on 25 October.
- Brazil Runoff Odds Fall Below 80% for Flávio
Polymarket bettors gave conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro a 74.8% chance of winning Brazil's runoff on Sunday, 25 October, as of midday Thursday, down from 86% on 13 October and about ten points in 24 hours. He faces Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and a Quaest poll released Wednesday showed Flávio at 46% against Lula's 44%, within a two-point margin of error. The article stresses that these prices are bets, not polls. Brazilian assets have also weakened: the real is 1.1% weaker against the dollar since 9 October, and the Ibovespa closed Wednesday at 206,506 points, 1.2% below its record. Brazilian goods have faced a 25% US tariff since 22 July, and the vote will decide who handles tariffs with Washington.
- Brazil candidates focus fiscal plans on voter - friendly measures before runoff
Brazil's presidential runoff campaign is entering its final stretch, with both Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro focusing fiscal plans on politically palatable measures rather than structural reforms. Gross debt has risen by more than 10 percentage points under Lula to 82.9% of GDP. Bolsonaro promises faster adjustment, targeting a 1.5% of GDP improvement in the primary balance within 18 months, though his campaign has not explained how, while Lula pledges slower consolidation without cutting spending for lower-income Brazilians. Economists say the core problem is rapidly growing mandatory spending, with discretionary spending only about 7.6% of total outlays last year versus 14.2% in 2000. Analysts expect deeper reforms on benefit indexation and mandatory spending to wait until after the election.
- September Inflation Came In at 3 . 9 %, Helping to Set Social Security 2027 Cost - of - Living Adjustment ( COLA )
The CPI-W rose 3.9% in September from a year earlier, its second-largest annual increase this year after May’s 4.4%, which sets the basis for Social Security’s 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027, the fifth largest in 35 years. Social Security uses the CPI-W rather than the CPI-U, which rose 3.7%, because it focuses on hourly wage earners and clerical workers, who make up about 30% of the U.S. population. Energy prices surged amid the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with gasoline up 34.2% and fuel oil up 74.2% year over year. The COLA is based on the third-quarter CPI-W average, which was 3.62% higher than in 2025, and will take effect in January. The adjustment likely won’t fully offset current inflation pressures.
- September Inflation Came In at 3 . 9 %, Helping to Set Social Security 2027 Cost - of - Living Adjustment ( COLA )
Social Security's 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is 3.6%, 0.8% higher than this year's, and will raise monthly benefits beginning in January. The COLA is calculated from CPI-W, which rose 3.9% from a year earlier in September, compared with 3.7% for the headline CPI-U. Energy prices drove the increase: in September, energy costs rose 20.4% year over year, gasoline 34.2%, and fuel oil 74.2%, amid the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. CPI-W had eased to 3.4% in July and 3.5% in August before accelerating again, and the COLA is based on the third-quarter average compared with the prior year. The article notes that the adjustment will not fully offset the inflation recipients are facing.
- September Inflation Came In at 3.9%, Helping to Set Social Security's 2027 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA)
Social Security recipients will receive a 3.6% increase in monthly benefits starting next year, 0.8% higher than this year's COLA. The adjustment is based on the CPI-W, which rose 3.9% year over year in September, and the Q3 average was 3.62% above the previous year's average, rounded to 3.6%. The increase largely reflects energy price spikes tied to the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with gasoline up 34.2% and fuel oil up 74.2% year over year in September. Inflation cooled in July and August before accelerating again in September. The article notes the COLA likely won't fully offset current inflation, but it lets recipients plan their 2027 budgets.
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