News about inflation

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly said the Fed had 'removed a dose of accommodation' at its September meeting, a signal that inflation remains a concern. September producer prices rose 6.3% on a headline basis and 5% on a core basis, above expectations, though headline inflation had eased from its 4.2% peak in May. The Fed voted 12-0 on Sept. 16 to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and the author argues further hikes could come in December and through 2027. Because much AI infrastructure spending is partly debt-financed, the author warns that rising borrowing costs could slow AI growth, noting the market is the second-priciest in history.

The South African rand edged up roughly 0.2% in early Monday trade to 16.4475, as investors looked ahead to a busy week of economic data. The focus is on Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's medium-term budget policy statement on Wednesday and September inflation figures. Nedbank expects headline inflation to rise to 4.8% in September from 4.4% in August, and retail sales growth to slow to 2.5% in August from 3.4% in July, with higher transport costs from fuel prices and rand depreciation as the main pressure. The 2035 benchmark government bond was little changed, with its yield rising half a basis point to 8.7%.

Airline executives told the Financial Times that fuel prices surging after the Iran war could become the new normal, forcing carriers to keep raising fares and possibly scale back growth plans or cut fleets. TAP Air Portugal's CEO Luís Rodrigues expects three to five difficult years because pricing power is limited. So far demand holds up: OAG estimates 2.3 billion bookings in the first half, up 1% year on year, even as fares rose. Executives worry that fuel-driven inflation will erode household purchasing power, and many carriers plan further fare hikes as fuel hedges expire. Abra's CEO Adrian Neuhauser said the industry could end up smaller than it otherwise would, while SunExpress's Marcus Schnabel said AI is 'not free' and must compete with aircraft purchases for capital.

Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino drought squeeze cereal supplies. Rice prices in Indonesia have hit record highs, bread in Egypt has risen by a quarter, and sugar in India reached an all-time high. The World Bank found food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14% previously. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest reading since November 2022. Rising prices heighten the risk of social unrest and could prompt key exporters to impose export bans.

FAO chief economist Maximo Torero warned that global food inflation is poised to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Niño-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. Rice prices in Indonesia hit record highs, bread in Egypt rose by a quarter, and sugar in India reached a record after the weakest monsoon in more than a decade. The World Bank found that food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14% in the previous quarter. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, and the world's poorest consumers are being hit hardest.

Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Niño-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. In Jakarta, a parking attendant has cut meals after rice, tempeh and tofu costs rose from 7,000–8,000 rupiah to 15,000 rupiah, while Indonesian rice prices hit record highs. The FAO expects a bigger impact toward year-end and into next year, and the World Bank found food prices outpaced headline inflation in 22% of 150 countries analysed, up from 14% in the previous quarter. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022. Wheat prices are up more than 30% in 2026, raising the risk of social unrest and export bans.

FAO chief economist Máximo Torero warned food inflation could intensify late this year and persist into 2027 due to shipping disruptions, expensive farm inputs and El Niño. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from a year earlier, though still 15.1% below its March 2022 peak. In the U.S., grocery prices fell 0.1% in September while overall consumer prices rose 0.6% and reached an annual rate of 3.7%. FAO forecast a 2026 cereal harvest of 2.979 billion metric tons, 2.1% below the previous year's record. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center put the probability of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño lasting through January–March 2027 at greater than 83%.

Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. In Jakarta, parking attendant Muhamad Yasin, 63, says rice, tempeh and tofu now cost 15,000 rupiah, up from 7,000 to 8,000, forcing him to cut back on meals. The World Bank found food prices outpaced headline inflation in 22 percent of the 150 countries it analysed in the September quarter, up from 14 percent. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022. Attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure, Red Sea insecurity and the US-Israeli war on Iran have disrupted shipments and raised fuel and fertiliser costs, pushing wheat prices up more than 30 percent in 2026.

French authorities have arrested about 2,400 people after violent protests in Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Bordeaux and other cities, which involved clashes with police, arson and looting, Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said on Sunday. The unrest came alongside mass demonstrations against rising inflation, partly driven by the US-Iran war. Several public buildings were set on fire or vandalised and shops were looted, with around 500 police officers, firefighters and paramedics injured. Nunez blamed several thousand far-left activists and vowed the government would not back down, with investigations continuing to identify those responsible. The unrest follows four weeks of student protests over classroom conditions in high schools.

Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Niño drought squeeze cereal supplies. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022. According to the World Bank, food prices outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed in the September quarter, up from 14% previously. Wheat prices have risen more than 30% in 2026 and freight rates about 50% on key routes, while importers returning to the market could spark a new wave of demand. Rising prices heighten the risk of social unrest and could prompt exporters to impose trade bans, worsening shortages.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation is “quite close” to the 2% target, as strong global AI demand and a tight job market add price pressure, signalling room for further rate hikes. He stressed that raising rates at an appropriate pace would help avoid spikes in bond yields, while failing to adjust could push long-term rates higher. The BOJ's two-day meeting concludes on October 30, but after its September hike, many policymakers are cautious about another move this month. According to sources cited by Reuters, many market players expect rates to hold at 1.25%, with hints of a possible rise to 1.5% as early as December. JGB yields have risen as concerns grow that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's big spending plans could worsen Japan's already strained finances.

Global food inflation is likely to accelerate in the coming months and could last well into 2027, driven by two supply shocks. War-related shipping disruptions are slowing deliveries, while El Niño drought is hurting harvests and squeezing cereal supplies. Vulnerable consumers face even more pressure because food takes up a large share of their income. Early signs are already visible: Indonesia's rice price is at a record high due to late rains, Egypt's bread price has risen 25%, and India's sugar price is the highest ever after its weakest monsoon in more than ten years cut output. The article argues these cases share one problem: staple-food systems are highly sensitive to climate shocks and supply-chain stress.

The Producer Price Index rose 1.3% in September, its largest monthly gain since March 2022, and is running at an annual rate of 6.3%, far above the roughly 0.6% economists expected. Wholesale energy prices jumped 10.8% and producer-level gasoline surged 20.3%, while final demand goods rose 2.6%, the largest monthly increase since the series began in 2009. Retail sales rose 0.8% in September, but excluding gasoline they increased just 0.2%. The author argues inflation has not been defeated, pointing to a 3.7% CPI reading and cost pressures spreading through the economy.

IMF African Department director Zeine Zeidane warned that sub-Saharan African economies could face worsening food insecurity if new shocks keep pushing up food prices. He said grain prices have risen significantly over the past six or seven months because of higher fertilizer prices tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, while attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and possible El Nino weather add further risk to output. According to the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook Update, median regional inflation is projected to rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 5.0 percent in 2027, while growth is forecast at 4.5 percent for both 2026 and 2027. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen by more than 100 basis points since the conflict began, raising borrowing costs for African countries. Zeidane also noted that Asian countries, especially China, have become increasingly important trading partners and financiers for Africa.

IMF official Zeine Zeidane warned that food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa could worsen if new shocks keep pushing up food prices. Fertilizer prices rose sharply this year due to the U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, while attacks on grain shipments in the Black Sea and El Nino could further reduce agricultural output. The IMF projects median inflation in the region to rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 5.0 percent in 2027, with growth at 4.5 percent in both 2026 and 2027. The IMF update notes that high interest burdens, low reserves and falling aid leave little room to absorb another shock, and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen more than 100 basis points since the conflict began. The IMF supports nearly 20 countries and is in ongoing discussions with about 10 others on potential new programs.

IMF African Department director Zeine Zeidane warned that food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa could worsen if new shocks keep pushing up food prices, as grain prices have risen significantly over the past six to seven months because of fertilizer costs. The U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions drove fertilizer prices up this year, while attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and possible El Nino effects add further risk. The IMF's updated outlook projects median regional inflation rising from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, with growth at 4.5% in both years. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen by more than 100 basis points since the conflict started, raising borrowing costs for African countries, and Zeidane said China is now the largest trading partner in almost every African country.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to trim his 2026 growth forecast, which was 1.6% in the February budget, in his medium-term budget policy statement to parliament on Wednesday. The US war against Iran has hurt manufacturing and mining and pushed inflation sharply higher, and the South African Reserve Bank and the IMF have already cut their forecasts significantly. Spending for the first five months of 2026/27 reached 42% of the budget versus 41% a year earlier, while revenue of R812bn trailed the R868bn implied by the main budget, according to Investec economist Annabel Bishop. This week, Sacci releases its September business confidence index on Monday, and Stats SA publishes September consumer inflation on Wednesday, with Absa economists expecting a 0.2 percentage point rise to 4.6% on fuel prices.

IMF African Department director Zeine Zeidane warned that food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa could worsen if new shocks keep pushing up food prices. Grain prices have risen significantly over the past six or seven months due to higher fertilizer costs from the U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, while attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and possible El Nino weather effects could further cut output. The IMF's update projects median regional inflation rising from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 5.0 percent in 2027, with growth at 4.5 percent in both years. The IMF supports nearly 20 countries and is in talks with about 10 on new programs, including Senegal and Malawi, though high interest burdens, low reserves and falling aid limit room to absorb another shock. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen more than 100 basis points since the conflict began, raising borrowing costs for African countries.

The Nikkei 225 opened October 19 at 404.78, down 2.1% from the previous close of 413.41 in the first minutes of Tokyo trading. The drop comes as the Bank of Japan has already signaled it cannot tolerate underlying inflation running above 2%, leaving limited room for policy to cushion a selloff. Yen-sensitive exporters, which are among the most widely held Japanese stocks by international funds, are expected to feel the impact first. The article notes that the Tokyo open can set the tone for the broader Asia session.

China's GDP grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, up from 4.3% in the second quarter and above the 4.4% expected in a Reuters poll, as strong foreign demand for technology goods offset weakness in property and consumption. The monthly trade surplus hit a record $133.5 billion. Still, September retail sales rose 1.1%, beating forecasts, while urban fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months and real estate investment dropped 20.6%, pointing to weak domestic demand. Producer prices rose 5% in September, the fastest pace in over four years, while consumer inflation stayed below 1%, limiting firms' ability to raise prices. One economist forecasts full-year growth of 4.7%, and economists largely expect the People's Bank of China to keep benchmark lending rates unchanged this year.

In the midterms, meat has become a flashpoint: Republicans accuse some Democratic candidates of backing veganism or opposing farming, while Democrats focus on beef prices that rose under Trump. In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom released a video clipping incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith saying voters have “so many proteins to choose from.” In Colorado, Republicans attacked Democrat Manny Rutinel over his anti-meat activism, but he has publicly eaten steak tacos and is backed by the meatpackers’ union. The Bureau of Labor Statistics put the average pound of ground beef at $6.79 last month, up from $5.55 in January 2025, and Trump’s efforts to ease prices by opening U.S. markets to beef imports, especially from Argentina, have angered U.S. producers. Hyde-Smith’s campaign blamed Colom for supporting Biden-era policies that drove up inflation.

Quang Ninh Party Secretary Quan Minh Cuong said the province cannot grow below 10% or its party secretary and chairman would be removed, but argued that not every province should be required to reach 10%, citing the difficult mountainous terrain of Cao Bang. Quang Ninh grew 11% in Q1 and 15% in Q3, and he pledged to keep growth at 15% in Q4. Deputy Prime Minister Pham Thi Thanh Tra said the national economy grew 9.01% in the first nine months and the government remains committed to double-digit growth, despite inflation pressure and some officials' reluctance to take responsibility. Hanoi grew 8.85% in the first nine months and would need 16.55% in Q4 to reach double-digit growth, which Hanoi Party Secretary Tran Duc Thang called very difficult. Hanoi's average CPI rose 4.91% over nine months, above the national figure of 4.52%.

Domestic gold bar and ring prices fell 500–800 thousand VND per tael across SJC, PNJ, DOJI, Bảo Tín Minh Châu and Bảo Tín Mạnh Hải in the midday update on October 19. Early that morning, gold bars at SJC, PNJ, DOJI and Bảo Tín Mạnh Hải were quoted at 140.6–143.6 million VND per tael, while Bảo Tín Minh Châu quoted 138.6–143.6 million. From October 16, gold purchases and sales of 5 million VND or more in a day must be paid by non-cash means under Decree 390/2026/NĐ-CP. Internationally, gold traded around 4,160–4,180 USD per ounce as investors watched US economic data and the Fed's rate outlook ahead of its October 27–28 meeting. The market still leans toward the Fed holding rates steady, but persistent inflation keeps expectations of a rate hike before year-end elevated.

With US inflation at 3.7% in September, driven by higher energy costs, the article highlights three fast-growing, financially sound stocks from a screener. NVIDIA's Compute & Networking unit, which supplies GPUs and AI software to cloud and enterprise customers, generates about US$275.4b, versus US$27.6b from Graphics, and the company has a market value of roughly US$5,170.6b. The article says its margins could be undermined if a cheaper or more open alternative to CUDA gains uptake. AMD's Data Center business, serving hyperscale clouds with EPYC and Instinct chips, sits within a company valued near US$863.2b, and it has Helios AI system commitments from OpenAI, Meta and Anthropic. USA Rare Earth, an early-stage producer valued at about US$4b, focuses on rare earth minerals for electric vehicles and clean energy, and received a DOE award for a pilot-scale separations project in the US.

US stock futures rose and oil edged lower as traders prepared for a busy earnings week, with more than 70 S&P 500 companies reporting, including Tesla and Meta. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% on Friday, its worst week since June, while the VIX jumped to a four-month high as tech shares slumped. Brent crude fell 0.7% to near $110 a barrel, adding to inflation worries and complicating the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's Oct. 28 decision. Investors are watching whether heavy AI infrastructure spending will deliver adequate returns, while geopolitical risks rise amid strained US-Ukraine relations. Analysts describe a period of heightened uncertainty, with Asia especially exposed to chips, higher yields and energy prices.

The article highlights three Australian penny stocks that have risen over the past year, against a backdrop of accelerating US inflation and tech share volatility. Alkane Resources (market cap A$2.4b) is a multi-mine gold producer with copper exposure from its Boda project, generating about A$935.8 million in revenue from the Tomingley, Bjorkdal and Costerfield mines. Ventia Services Group (market cap A$4.7b) runs long-term infrastructure services in Australia and New Zealand, with a record A$20.6 billion work in hand (up 19.4%) and a 95% contract renewal rate. SRG Global (market cap A$2.2b) generates about A$1.15 billion from maintenance and industrial services, and says roughly 80% of its earnings are annuity-style. The article flags risks including Alkane's greater complexity and the Boda-Kaiser capex project, and the rest is largely promotion for a fuller screener.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers attended the IMF-World Bank meetings and the G20 finance ministers' gathering in Bangkok while facing domestic political pressure. The Nine papers report growing concern within the Reserve Bank of Australia that fallout from the Iran war will keep inflation high and push interest rates higher.

President Donald Trump rallied in Dalton, Georgia, on Friday and Highland Heights, Kentucky, on Saturday, repeating familiar lines on topics including his makeup and a spelling joke about 'dumb,' which the author calls nonsensical. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff described the speech as 'senile babbling.' The author argues Trump would help Republicans more by staying out of the final weeks of the midterm campaign so candidates can define their own races. The column says Trump dismisses voter concerns about inflation, corruption and the cost of gas and groceries as hoaxes.

The TUC estimates UK households have paid an extra £13,961 on bills on average since 2021, or £2,792 a year, amid soaring inflation and a difficult backdrop including the Covid crisis, war in Ukraine and war in Iran. TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said working people have borne the brunt of successive crises and that high bills are squeezing consumer spending and holding back the economy. A Resolution Foundation study found working families are £2,900 a year worse off over the past five years compared with inflation at around 2 per cent a year. Its chief economist James Smith said any new help must be targeted at the poorest families, starting with energy bills, as public finances leave less room than ever to provide support.

A new calculator from the Get the Facts Data Team shows how many gallons a given amount of money buys at the pump, based on the EIA's monthly national average price for regular gasoline. Regular gasoline averaged $4.36 in September, and the gasoline index was up 34.2% year over year. The BLS reported that gasoline rose 9.1% in September, accounting for over half of the month's overall increase, and overall inflation reached 3.7% year over year as the ongoing U.S. war with Iran keeps oil prices elevated.

The article argues that economies, markets, politics and societies face unusual volatility at once, with global growth sluggish and many major developed economies stalling well below 3 percent. Inflation remains above the 2 percent target, with eurozone inflation hitting 3.8 percent last month, its highest in three years, and the UK's consumer price index reaching 3.1 percent in August. Public debt in several advanced economies reaches or exceeds 100 percent of GDP, while bond yields are elevated globally, with 10-year US Treasuries above 5.3 percent and 30-year yields above 5.6 percent, the highest since 2002. Equity markets look fragile, as seven tech firms account for more than 30 percent of the S&P 500's market capitalization and the price-to-earnings ratio stands at 26.6, versus 16 for much of the last quarter-century. The author also flags eroding education, infrastructure and social cohesion as underlying risks.

The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is 3.6%, which the article calls fairly large by historical standards and the fifth-highest in 35 years. Average monthly benefits for retired workers were about $2,087.52 in August, roughly $25,050 a year, so the increase adds about $901.80 annually. The higher adjustment follows the Iran war, which pushed oil prices and inflation up and led the Federal Reserve to raise rates once, with another hike expected before year-end. The Senior Citizens League says 2026 benefits are worth only about $0.836 on the dollar compared with 2016, a 13.7% loss in purchasing power over a decade, and argues a CPI-E measure would better reflect seniors' costs. The article concludes that high COLAs may not fully solve affordability problems for retirees.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC's Meet The Press that energy prices would fall once the Iran conflict ends, but he did not say when hostilities would stop. Inflation reached 3.7% in September, a five-month high driven by energy and gas prices, while food was flat, prescription drug prices fell and median rents were 0.4% lower year on year, according to Apartment List. The national average gas price was about $4.30 per gallon as of October 18, versus about $2.98 at the start of the Iran war. Bessent defended the administration's waiver of Russian sanctions, citing sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, and called Zelensky's claim that the U.S. restricted Ukraine's Starshield access 'reckless' and untrue. Asked whether the U.S. considers Ukraine an ally, he avoided a direct answer and said such matters belong to the president or the secretary of state.

Nigeria’s Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said at the 2026 IMF-World Bank Meetings in Bangkok that the government is aiming for 7 per cent annual growth, well above IMF projections for the next two years. He credited a tax framework rewritten within two years and efforts to cut food, energy and logistics costs as key to lowering inflation and borrowing costs. He argued that bringing inflation down to low single digits could allow single-digit interest rates, noting that prime lending is close to 30 per cent, which weighs on businesses. He also said improved foreign exchange performance has helped the inflation outlook, although food, energy and logistics pressures remain. He defended the “Nigeria Rising” narrative as a way to correct international perceptions that, in the government’s view, do not reflect the country’s progress.

The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is 3.6%, well above expectations at the start of 2026, and would add about $901.80 a year to average retiree benefits of roughly $25,050. It is based on CPI-W data for July to September, and the article links the higher inflation to the Iran war, which pushed up oil prices and led the Federal Reserve to raise rates once, with another hike expected before year-end. The 3.6% figure is the fifth-highest COLA in 35 years, following 5.9% in 2021 and 8.7% in 2022. Still, the Senior Citizens League found benefits in 2026 were worth only about $0.836 on the dollar compared with 2016, a 13.7% loss in purchasing power that it partly attributes to the CPI-W formula. The article concludes that high COLAs have helped somewhat but likely will not solve retirees' affordability problems.

Deloitte Access Economics forecasts that underlying inflation in Australia will have been above the Reserve Bank's 2.5% target for a full seven years by late 2028, when it is finally tamed. Governor Michele Bullock faces growing questions about whether blunt interest-rate policy is effective. At the press conference after September's rate rise, she was asked whether monetary policy had become detached from the problems it is meant to solve. She responded that rate increases affect far more than mortgage holders.

At a Topeka event, Zac Surritt of R&S Maintenance told Sen. Roger Marshall that Trump's tariffs had reduced global demand, squeezed margins and forced the company to delay expansion plans. Marshall said this experience was likely an anomaly, since most manufacturers he has spoken with are expanding, and argued that tariffs are helping Kansas manufacturing grow. Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton said business leaders need stability, criticized the 56 tariff changes made in the past year, and called on Congress to reassert its authority over tariffs. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimated that tariffs imposed in 2025 and 2026 added 2.9 percentage points to inflation across a basket of 67 consumer goods, while the Tax Foundation put the average cost at $820 per household in 2026.

Zac Surritt, a leader at Kansas metal fabrication firm R&S Maintenance, says tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump have cut global demand and margins, raised transportation and living costs for employees, and forced the company to delay expansion. Republican Senator Roger Marshall, running for reelection against Democrat Adam Hamilton, called the experience likely an anomaly since most manufacturers are expanding, and said the tariffs are bringing jobs back to America. Hamilton criticized the policy's instability, citing 56 tariff changes in the past year, and said Trump's insults toward Canada, which imports $4 billion of goods from Kansas annually, and doubts about Bombardier, which has 1,500 employees in Sedgwick County, were damaging. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that tariffs in 2025 and 2026 added 2.9 percentage points to inflation across a basket of 67 everyday consumer goods, while the Tax Foundation estimated an average cost of $820 per household in 2026.

French Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said more than 2,000 people were arrested during violent protests across France on Saturday. About 550,000 people joined the nationwide marches against rising inflation, which saw clashes with police, arson, looting of dozens of shops and attacks on public buildings. More than 600 police officers, gendarmes and firefighters were injured, and several hundred businesses suffered considerable damage. Nunez said demonstrating is a fundamental right but coordinated violence is not. The unrest follows weeks of student protests.

At the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook put global growth at 3.1% and global inflation at 4.7%. While an AI boom is lifting technology-exporting economies, developing and climate-vulnerable regions face a double hit from high energy costs and climate disasters, and over 60% of low-income nations are in or near debt distress. Delegates argued for a two-part strategy: fiscal consolidation to service debt while protecting social safety nets, and aggressive investment in digital connectivity so developing economies can share in the tech recovery. Wayne Henry, Chairman and Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica, said many developing economies need to catch up on digital connectivity to benefit from technological advances.

The US Treasury cited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's view that the current price surge is an energy shock tied to the Iran conflict and that prices will fall after the conflict ends. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over 12 months, with energy up 20.4% and gasoline up 34.2% from a year earlier, while grocery prices fell 0.1% for the month. Core CPI rose 2.6% over the year, up from 2.4% in August, and rent rose 2.8%, so the article notes the data do not support claims that core inflation or rents are falling. Brent crude settled at $109.86 a barrel on October 16, and freight costs for one planned US-to-Japan tanker voyage equaled $40.50 per barrel. Agricultural commodity prices rose 13% in the third quarter, and the International Fund for Agricultural Development warned that disrupted fertilizer and transport could push food prices higher.

Markets price about a 70% chance the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lift the Official Cash Rate, now 2.75%, on October 28, and a 100% chance by December. ANZ says that if Q3 CPI lands near its 3.7% forecast, an October hike stays on the table given the weaker NZ dollar and higher oil prices since September, with tradeable inflation seen at 4.2% and non-tradeable at 3.5%. Westpac expects the central bank to look past the slight dip in headline inflation, as fuel prices rebounded late in the quarter and inflation for the December quarter could exceed the 4.1% of the June quarter. BNZ believes the bank will keep lifting the cash rate, including at its upcoming October meeting, due to concerns over fuel prices and the weak NZ dollar.

The Social Security Administration announced a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for benefits in 2027, starting in January for 72 million beneficiaries and on December 31 for Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients. The increase reflects inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index from the third quarter of 2025 through the third quarter of 2026, and average retirement benefits will rise by about $75 a month. The payroll tax rate stays at 6.2%, while the taxable earnings cap rises from $184,500 to $192,300. The program faces a shortfall as payments exceed tax collections, and without congressional action, benefits would automatically begin to decrease in 2032. Senate candidates in key races have so far been relatively quiet on the issue.

PGIM India Mutual Fund expects the MPC to begin rate hikes in October, with a total of 50-75 bps by the end of FY2027, and sees the 10-year bond yield trading between 6.95% and 7.25% in the near term. The 10-year yield closed the week at 7.06%, up 2 bps, while the 5-year yield rose 15 bps as the RBI conducted INR 50,000 crore of OMO. Brent crude spiked above USD 109/bbl intra-week before ending at USD 103.87/bbl, and the RBI continued FX intervention as outflows from debt and equity persisted. The trade deficit narrowed to USD 27 billion in August from USD 32 billion in July, while the current account deficit is expected near 1% in FY2027 depending on crude prices. CPI inflation is expected at 5.50% next month, with a risk of broad-based price rises if crude stays above USD 100/bbl.

US tech stocks fell sharply last week, with the Nasdaq 100 down 5.5%, the S&P 500 down 2% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 11.4%. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan compared speculative AI investing to casino gambling, while the article flags worries over heavy capital spending and rising debt, such as CoreWeave's roughly $50 billion in borrowings. US inflation reached 3.7% in September and Brent crude hit $112 a barrel, leaving the Federal Reserve less room to maneuver. Still, 70% of S&P 500 stocks rose on the week as money rotated into energy, utilities and consumer staples. Global tech equity funds saw $4.75 billion in outflows, emerging-market equity funds drew $717 million, and the PSEi rose 2.1% to 5,782.70.

At a national roundtable organized by the Forum for Social Studies (FSS) with the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), experts warned that Ethiopia's economic reforms are entering their most consequential phase, but a gap between policy and implementation could erode public confidence and delay the benefits of a market-oriented economy. Berhanu Denu, an economist at Addis Ababa University, welcomed economic opening but cautioned that reforms could raise inflation and reduce household purchasing power. He called for targeted support for groups facing temporary hardship, predictable policies, sensible reform sequencing, and progress tracked through measurable indicators. Participants also flagged limited access to foreign currency, financing constraints and a weak investment environment as obstacles for businesses.

Federal authorities raided the Washington-area home of Rep. Ilhan Omar as part of an ongoing investigation that the Justice Department said concerns alleged immigration fraud, and Democrats condemned the move as an abuse of power. Ukraine said it was done supporting an energy-target ceasefire that Trump announced and Russia ignored, struck a Russian oil refinery, and saw SpaceX limit Starlink services in the country. White House press secretary Katie Zacharia was let go after five days on the job, after drawing scrutiny for misrepresenting herself as a lawyer, and Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle was asked to resign over reports she sold access to officials. Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September from August and 3.7% from a year earlier, as paychecks failed to keep pace with prices for a third straight month. Other stories included a 16-year-old shooter who killed four people, including three children, at an elementary school in Bend, Oregon, and Pope Leo XIV's diagnosis of lung cancer after surgery.