China's economy is likely to have grown 4.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, up from 4.3% in the second quarter, which was the weakest pace in more than three years, according to a Reuters poll. That still falls short of the 4.6% forecast in a July poll and below the official 4.5%–5% target, with strong exports and tech-goods demand masking weak consumption and private investment. The trade surplus widened more than expected in September and is on track to top last year's record US$1.2 trillion, likely heightening trade tensions with partners such as the EU. Beijing has added targeted rate cuts, mortgage subsidies and 550 billion yuan in unused debt quotas, and ING's Lynn Song sees room for more support to boost jobs, incomes and domestic demand. Analysts polled by Reuters expect benchmark lending rates to stay unchanged through the first quarter of 2027.
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