News about GDP growth

China's economy grew 4.5% in the July–September quarter from a year earlier, faster than the 4.3% in April–June, which was the slowest pace in more than three years, thanks to robust exports. The annual growth target is 4.5%–5%, down from 5% last year, and the IMF has trimmed its forecast for China's 2026 growth to 4.5%. Domestic demand remains weak amid a prolonged property slump, while exports rose 36% last month and the trade surplus reached $938 billion from January to September, putting China on track to surpass last year's record $1.2 trillion. The EU, which runs a trade deficit with China of more than $1.1 billion a day, has agreed with Beijing to roughly halve Chinese hybrid vehicle imports over the next few years, though economists say trade imbalances will be hard to resolve quickly.

China's third-quarter economic growth came in at 4.5%, rebounding from three-year lows and beating forecasts, as a surge in exports offset consumers' tight spending. Analysts warn that growing reliance on external drivers is deepening structural imbalances, while the property market remains in a downturn that has eroded household wealth over the past five years. Weak domestic demand has pushed firms such as Zhang Chao's motorbike headlight maker to shift toward exports, while fierce price wars are forcing companies to cut costs, including payroll. Trade surpluses with Germany and France each jumped more than 200% year-on-year in September, prompting the EU to agree to limit hybrid car exports and plan further curbs. The 5.2% unemployment rate may be flattered by the gig economy, where anyone working even one hour a week counts as employed; Societe Generale economist Michelle Lam warns that without a shift toward supporting household incomes, China risks a prolonged period of low inflation and sub-par growth.

China said its economy grew 4.5% from a year earlier in the July-September quarter, faster than the 4.3% pace in the previous quarter, driven by robust exports. Domestic demand remained weak, as a years-long property downturn has squeezed household wealth and driven up savings. Exports grew 36% last month, and the trade surplus reached $938 billion from January to September, on track to surpass last year's record $1.2 trillion. The European Union, where the deficit with China exceeds $1.1 billion a day, is pressing Beijing to rebalance trade, as exports to the EU rose 16% in the first nine months of the year. Analysts warn that this export-reliant growth model has created limited job gains, while the yuan is accused of being undervalued.

China's economy grew 4.5% in the July–September quarter from a year earlier, faster than the 4.3% pace in April–June, driven by strong exports and moving it closer to the 4.5%–5% annual target. Domestic demand remains weak, weighed down by a prolonged property slump, and economists warn the headline growth figure increasingly masks disparities across industries, regions and households. Exports rose 36% last month, and the trade surplus reached $938 billion from January to September, putting China on track to surpass last year's record $1.2 trillion. The EU, which runs a trade deficit with China of more than $1.1 billion a day, is pressing for rebalancing after the two sides agreed to roughly halve Chinese hybrid vehicle imports. Some partners argue an undervalued yuan has added to the surplus, a claim China's central bank rejects.

China's GDP grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, beating the 4.4% forecast and rebounding from 4.3% in the second quarter, a three-year low. Growth averaged 4.6% over the first nine months, in line with Beijing's 4.5%–5% target for the year, driven by tech exports and a record monthly trade surplus of US$133.5 billion. However, retail sales rose only 1.1% in September, urban fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% and property development investment slumped 20.6% in the first nine months. Producer prices rose 5% mainly on fuel costs, while consumer inflation stayed below 1%, pointing to weak domestic demand. Economists said the prolonged housing crisis and supply-demand imbalance may limit spillovers, and the strong data could reduce pressure on Beijing to deploy needed stimulus.

China's economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating forecasts, as strong exports offset weak consumer spending and a prolonged property downturn. Analysts expect Beijing to reach its 2026 target of 4.5%-5.0% without additional stimulus, but warn that growing reliance on external drivers is deepening structural imbalances. Retail sales again lagged industrial output, fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January-September, and the job market has weakened. The yuan firmed to its strongest level since July 2022 on Monday.

China's economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, faster than the 4.3% in the second quarter and the 4.4% median forecast, lifting growth for the first nine months to 4.6%, within the 4.5%-5% annual target. ANZ's Xing Zhaopeng said bigger fiscal spending helped investment and retail sales, but the recovery remains unsolid and carries downside risk into 2027. Stronger data may give policymakers room to hold off on more easing, though property investment fell 20.6% in the first nine months and domestic demand is still soft. Exports are propping up growth, and the trade surplus is on track to exceed last year's $1.2 trillion record, drawing pressure from trade partners who want a stronger yuan, which the IMF sees as undervalued by a midpoint of 21.3%.

China's economy grew 4.5% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, beating expectations and up from 4.3% in April-June, which was the slowest pace in more than three years. The growth brings Beijing closer to its 2026 target of 4.5%-5%, although the IMF has cut its forecast for China to 4.5%. Exports rose 36% last month, and the trade surplus reached $938 billion between January and September, putting China on course to exceed last year's record $1.2 trillion, driven by high-tech goods and electric and hybrid vehicles. Domestic demand remains weak amid the property downturn, and analysts say the headline figure hides wide gaps across industries, regions and households. The EU and China agreed this month to roughly halve Chinese hybrid vehicle imports over the next few years, but European countries are considering further curbs on Chinese products.

China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5%, beating forecasts and rebounding from three-year lows as booming exports offset weak consumer spending. Analysts expect Beijing to meet its 2026 target of 4.5% to 5% without additional stimulus, but warn that reliance on external drivers is deepening structural imbalances. Retail sales rose 1.1% in September, lagging industrial output growth of 5.5%, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January-September and the property sector remains in a downturn. Exports rose more than a third, and trade surpluses with Germany and France each jumped over 200% in September, prompting the EU to plan further curbs.

China said its economy grew 4.5% year on year in the July-September quarter, faster than expected and up from 4.3% in April-June, which had been the slowest expansion in more than three years, driven by robust exports. Beijing's full-year growth target is 4.5%-5%, down from 5% last year, and the IMF has trimmed its 2026 forecast to 4.5%, the lower end of that goal. Domestic demand remains weak, with a prolonged property slump squeezing household wealth and driving up savings. Exports rose 36% last month, and the trade surplus reached $938 billion from January to September, putting China on track to surpass last year's record $1.2 trillion. Trade partners, including the EU, which runs a trade deficit with China of more than $1.1 billion a day, are pressing for rebalancing, while economists warn that an export-reliant model could drag on global growth.

Asian currencies traded flat to slightly higher on Monday while the dollar held steady after a 0.4% weekly fall that ended a four-week winning streak. The yuan reached its strongest level since July 2022, with onshore USD/CNY down 0.1% to 6.6816, after China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% year on year, beating the 4.4% forecast. September industrial output rose 5.5% and retail sales 1.1%, but property investment fell 20.6% in the first nine months and fixed-asset investment dropped 7.2%, which could limit the yuan's gains. The yen was near 158 per dollar amid intervention fears, while the rupee posted its strongest weekly performance in nearly four years after Reserve Bank of India measures to curb dollar demand. The Australian dollar gained 0.4% and the won strengthened 0.2% against the dollar.

China's economy is likely to have grown 4.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, up from 4.3% in the second quarter, which was the weakest pace in more than three years, according to a Reuters poll. That still falls short of the 4.6% forecast in a July poll and below the official 4.5%–5% target, with strong exports and tech-goods demand masking weak consumption and private investment. The trade surplus widened more than expected in September and is on track to top last year's record US$1.2 trillion, likely heightening trade tensions with partners such as the EU. Beijing has added targeted rate cuts, mortgage subsidies and 550 billion yuan in unused debt quotas, and ING's Lynn Song sees room for more support to boost jobs, incomes and domestic demand. Analysts polled by Reuters expect benchmark lending rates to stay unchanged through the first quarter of 2027.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to trim his 2026 growth forecast, which was 1.6% in the February budget, in his medium-term budget policy statement to parliament on Wednesday. The US war against Iran has hurt manufacturing and mining and pushed inflation sharply higher, and the South African Reserve Bank and the IMF have already cut their forecasts significantly. Spending for the first five months of 2026/27 reached 42% of the budget versus 41% a year earlier, while revenue of R812bn trailed the R868bn implied by the main budget, according to Investec economist Annabel Bishop. This week, Sacci releases its September business confidence index on Monday, and Stats SA publishes September consumer inflation on Wednesday, with Absa economists expecting a 0.2 percentage point rise to 4.6% on fuel prices.

Global markets rallied on Monday as stronger-than-expected China data and lower oil prices revived risk appetite. Bitcoin traded near $82,500, Nasdaq futures rose more than 1%, Japan's Nikkei gained 1.8% and South Korea's Kospi 0.6%, rebounding from last week's AI-related tech losses. China's GDP grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, faster than 4.3% in the second quarter, and retail sales rose 1.1%, above the 0.5% expected. Oil fell on both sides of the Atlantic, gold was little changed near $4,180, and the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates in the 4.75% to 5% range this month.

Asian stock markets fell on Monday as worries over the cost and returns of AI investment outweighed stronger-than-expected Chinese data and lower oil prices. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1.2% after losing 5.4% last week, South Korean shares slipped 0.4% after a weekly decline of over 14%, and Taiwan fell 1.4%. China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5%, slightly above expectations, while the yuan strengthened to 6.6828 per dollar. Brent crude fell 1.7% to $107.95 a barrel after Trump waived certain Russia sanctions, though Iran reported another tanker hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold gained 0.4% to $4,181 an ounce as falling bond yields boosted demand, while Goldman Sachs estimates five major AI hyperscalers could raise combined capital expenditure to about $1.2 trillion next year.

The ringgit opened mostly higher against major currencies on Monday after Malaysia's advance estimate showed third-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 5.3%, stronger than expected and following 6.0% in the previous quarter. Against the US dollar, the ringgit was little changed at 4.0790/0855 at 8 am, versus Friday's close of 4.0795/0835. Bank Muamalat Malaysia chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said stronger growth could reinforce expectations of possible monetary policy normalisation, and expected the ringgit-USD to trade between RM4.07 and RM4.08. Concerns over AI-related stock valuations could push investors toward safe havens such as US Treasury bonds, potentially supporting the dollar. The ringgit gained against the euro but weakened against the Japanese yen.

China's gross domestic product grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, according to the NBS, beating the Reuters poll forecast and up from 4.3% in the second quarter. Economist Tian Yun credited strong production and exports, especially AI-related high-tech goods, with exports rising more than 36% last month and the nine-month trade surplus nearing $940 billion. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% over the first nine months, while retail sales rose 2.6%. Authorities target 4.5% to 5% growth this year and pledged more effective policies but are limiting large-scale stimulus, and economists expect the central bank to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged. Consumption and private investment remain weak amid volatile energy prices and a prolonged property crisis.

China's GDP grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, up from 4.3% in the second quarter and above the 4.4% expected in a Reuters poll, as strong foreign demand for technology goods offset weakness in property and consumption. The monthly trade surplus hit a record $133.5 billion. Still, September retail sales rose 1.1%, beating forecasts, while urban fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months and real estate investment dropped 20.6%, pointing to weak domestic demand. Producer prices rose 5% in September, the fastest pace in over four years, while consumer inflation stayed below 1%, limiting firms' ability to raise prices. One economist forecasts full-year growth of 4.7%, and economists largely expect the People's Bank of China to keep benchmark lending rates unchanged this year.

Quang Ninh Party Secretary Quan Minh Cuong said the province cannot grow below 10% or its party secretary and chairman would be removed, but argued that not every province should be required to reach 10%, citing the difficult mountainous terrain of Cao Bang. Quang Ninh grew 11% in Q1 and 15% in Q3, and he pledged to keep growth at 15% in Q4. Deputy Prime Minister Pham Thi Thanh Tra said the national economy grew 9.01% in the first nine months and the government remains committed to double-digit growth, despite inflation pressure and some officials' reluctance to take responsibility. Hanoi grew 8.85% in the first nine months and would need 16.55% in Q4 to reach double-digit growth, which Hanoi Party Secretary Tran Duc Thang called very difficult. Hanoi's average CPI rose 4.91% over nine months, above the national figure of 4.52%.

The article argues that economies, markets, politics and societies face unusual volatility at once, with global growth sluggish and many major developed economies stalling well below 3 percent. Inflation remains above the 2 percent target, with eurozone inflation hitting 3.8 percent last month, its highest in three years, and the UK's consumer price index reaching 3.1 percent in August. Public debt in several advanced economies reaches or exceeds 100 percent of GDP, while bond yields are elevated globally, with 10-year US Treasuries above 5.3 percent and 30-year yields above 5.6 percent, the highest since 2002. Equity markets look fragile, as seven tech firms account for more than 30 percent of the S&P 500's market capitalization and the price-to-earnings ratio stands at 26.6, versus 16 for much of the last quarter-century. The author also flags eroding education, infrastructure and social cohesion as underlying risks.

Investment in data centers, put at $10.3 trillion, is now the largest financial bet in US history, surpassing the late 1800s railroad boom in both scale and economic impact. A Columbia Business School report estimates the buildout's economic effect at nearly 4% of GDP, compared with more than 2% for railroads, which cost about $173 billion in today's dollars. Texas, Virginia, Ohio and Georgia lead projected spending, and some states are rethinking tax breaks as revenues shrink and energy demand rises. Data center construction value has more than doubled to $85 billion a year while other construction fell 8%, and economist Paul Krugman warns this crowds out housing and jobs. The article also notes that AI profitability has yet to catch up with the spending.

At the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook put global growth at 3.1% and global inflation at 4.7%. While an AI boom is lifting technology-exporting economies, developing and climate-vulnerable regions face a double hit from high energy costs and climate disasters, and over 60% of low-income nations are in or near debt distress. Delegates argued for a two-part strategy: fiscal consolidation to service debt while protecting social safety nets, and aggressive investment in digital connectivity so developing economies can share in the tech recovery. Wayne Henry, Chairman and Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica, said many developing economies need to catch up on digital connectivity to benefit from technological advances.

Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il said South Korea's growth is projected at around 3% this year, supported by solid chip exports and higher facility investment, with momentum expected to strengthen over the medium to long term. On the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Group meetings in Bangkok, he briefed Moody's, Fitch and S&P Global Ratings on government-led growth initiatives, including three megaprojects, the green transition and the Future Fund launching next year. The rating agencies were keen to know how the government will use strong tax revenues from the chip supercycle, and noted stable economic indicators and sound public finances despite population aging and the war in the Middle East. Lee also signed memorandums of understanding with multilateral development banks, including EBRD and CABEI, to enhance cooperation on AI.

The column reflects on how the Philippines has repeatedly faced economic crises tied to political turmoil, from the 1983 debt crisis to coups and leadership changes, and now faces added pressure from a global geopolitical crisis. Citing First Metro Securities' Estella Villamiel, GDP growth averaged 2.6% year-to-date in 2026, one of the weaker periods outside the pandemic era. Household consumption remains the main driver but its contribution has moderated, capital formation is the primary drag on growth, and government spending and exports provide support. The fiscal deficit reached 5.8% of GDP in the first half, government debt is about 66% of GDP, and international funding is getting harder to secure. Household demand has softened in recent quarters, according to consumer sentiment, retail and vehicle sales data.

IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok offered no new answers for developing countries facing the Middle East war, the war in Ukraine, rising debt payments and a potential AI bubble. The institutions again urged shrinking fiscal deficits and accelerating reforms to attract private investment. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said advanced economies were the worst offenders for budget imbalances, and that developing countries' debt-servicing payments had more than doubled over a decade to 14% of government revenue. The World Bank said growth in developing economies had slowed to about 3.6% from 4.4%, while experts urged more inclusive growth. Nearly half the delegates at an IMF steering committee walked out when Russia's finance minister spoke.

The article argues that President Tinubu is building a lasting legacy by combining the strengths of earlier Nigerian leaders with democratic and economic reform. It cites his role in forming the coalition that became the APC, which achieved Nigeria's first federal transfer of power from a governing party to an opposition party, and the Supreme Court's affirmation of the 2023 election result despite legal challenges. It also notes that he congratulated Governor Ademola Adeleke after the opposition Accord Party defeated the APC in Osun's August 2026 election, while acknowledging the controversy over the suspension of Rivers State's elected government. On the economy, the article credits the removal of petrol subsidies, unification of foreign-exchange windows and four 2025 tax laws, as real GDP growth rose from 3.38% in 2024 to 4.43% in Q2 2026. According to the IMF, gross reserves increased from about $40 billion to $46 billion during 2025.

The article argues that India's economy is caught between strong macro indicators and mounting pressures. GDP grew 7.8% in Q1 FY27, GST collections rose 14.7% year on year in September 2026 to Rs 2.04 lakh crore, and UPI transactions reached 2,407 crore. However, the monsoon is 12.6% below its long-period average, CPI inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.82% in August, and India's crude purchase cost reportedly touched $110 per barrel. The Sensex has fallen about 11.89% over 12 months, FIIs sold over Rs 3.04 lakh crore in equities through October 2026, and per capita income is around $2,800. The author questions whether the boom is reaching ordinary households.

The IMF's latest forecasts show the global economy holding up better than feared despite the Iran war, higher interest rates and an AI-driven investment boom. Global growth is projected to rise to 3.4% in 2027 from an estimated 3.1% this year, with the US doing somewhat better than forecast and China unchanged at 4%. The article warns of risks including high energy prices, extreme weather, excess spending on data-centre technology and budgets in several advanced economies that are close to exhaustion, with France facing dimmer prospects amid a bond selloff. It argues that the burden of responding to any future downturn will ultimately fall on central banks, and quotes Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who said the bond market pressure gives leaders a chance to put their finances in order.

Pakistan's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb acknowledged growing poverty after a World Bank report found Pakistan accounts for 48 percent of people below the $3-a-day line in the MENAAP region in 2024. Aurangzeb and an adviser described Pakistan's move from South Asia to MENAAP as administrative and statistical, but World Bank country data show national poverty rising from 22 percent in 2018-19 to 29 percent in 2024-25, affecting about 70 million people. The lender cited COVID-19, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, insufficient job creation and falling real wages. The government pointed to Rs838 billion ($3 billion) for the BISP cash program, January payment increases under Kafaalat, and fuel subsidies reaching about 10 million users, though Aurangzeb said growth and job creation are the structural solution. Pakistan's economy grew 3.7 percent in the fiscal year ending June 2026, and Aurangzeb expects about 4 percent growth this fiscal year.