Diesel supplies could stay tight well into 2027 as disruptions in the Middle East and Russia keep affecting global fuel markets, raising costs for farmers and other diesel-dependent industries. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says combined diesel export losses from the Middle East and Russia reached about 1.3 million barrels per day in September, with attacks on energy infrastructure and lower refinery output tightening supply. Diesel refining margins have hit record levels, approaching $95 per barrel, and the IEA warns higher diesel prices are adding to inflation and pressuring economic activity. A refinery recovery toward year-end may bring some relief but is unlikely to fully replace lost supplies, and seasonal maintenance and winter demand could add pressure in the coming months.
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Diesel supplies could stay tight well into 2027 as disruptions in the Middle East and Russia keep affecting global fuel markets, raising costs for farmers and other diesel-dependent industries. The IEA says combined diesel export losses from the Middle East and Russia reached about 1.3 million barrels per day in September, while diesel refining margins hit record levels approaching $95 per barrel. The agency warns higher diesel prices add to inflation through transport and production costs and could weigh on economic activity. Farmers are especially exposed because diesel powers tractors and combines and fuels the transport of grain and livestock. Refinery output may recover toward year-end but will not fully replace lost supply, and seasonal maintenance and winter heating demand could add pressure.
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