Adobe's stock closed at a record $688.37 on November 19, 2021, and now trades around $248, about 64% below that peak, after a June 25 closing low of $193.41. Since 1990 it has fallen at least 30% from a record close eight times and set a new record after each drop. The author argues the current slump differs from the 2002 and 2009 slumps, which came with shrinking revenue, since Adobe's revenue has not declined this time, and fiscal Q3 2026 revenue rose 13% to a record $6.76 billion. The main worry is that AI agents could reduce the number of per-user seats Adobe bills; its AI-first ARR passed $650 million, up more than 150%, but is still a small share of $27.5 billion in total ARR. At about 10 times management's targeted fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS, the stock compares with almost 19 times expected earnings for the S&P 500.
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