The article explains how the IMF forecasts a country's economic growth, meaning the projected change in real GDP, which adjusts for price changes. Country teams build projections using local data, discussions with officials, and methods suited to each economy rather than a single formula. These forecasts are then checked against regional and global projections in the World Economic Outlook and adjusted to keep assumptions consistent. Because forecasts rely on data available at a cutoff date and working assumptions, they are informed estimates that are revised as new information arrives.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on chiangraitimes.com ↗
Related news
- Pakistan, IMF discuss economic growth and reform measures
- IMF Expects Kazakhstan Inflation to Ease and Economic Growth to Accelerate in 2027
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, released on October 13 at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, projects Kazakhstan’s inflation to fall from 11.4% in 2025 to 10.3% in 2026 and 8.2% in 2027. Economic growth is forecast at 4.4% in 2026, accelerating to 4.9% in 2027. Unemployment is expected to hold at 4.6% in 2026 before easing to 4.5% in 2027, and the current account balance is projected to stay positive at 0.5% of GDP in 2026. The report notes that Kazakhstan, outside the Persian Gulf, boosted oil output to help offset supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. It is also cited as a commodity exporter benefiting from rising exports of technology goods from major Asian manufacturers.
- Ringgit opens mostly higher as GDP growth beats forecasts
The ringgit opened mostly higher against major currencies on Monday after Malaysia's advance estimate showed third-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 5.3%, stronger than expected and following 6.0% in the previous quarter. Against the US dollar, the ringgit was little changed at 4.0790/0855 at 8 am, versus Friday's close of 4.0795/0835. Bank Muamalat Malaysia chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said stronger growth could reinforce expectations of possible monetary policy normalisation, and expected the ringgit-USD to trade between RM4.07 and RM4.08. Concerns over AI-related stock valuations could push investors toward safe havens such as US Treasury bonds, potentially supporting the dollar. The ringgit gained against the euro but weakened against the Japanese yen.
- NRF Forecasts 2026 Holiday Sales Growth as Consumers Remain Resilient
The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts holiday sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025 to a total of $1.013 trillion, as consumers still prioritize the season despite budget concerns. Last year's holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024 to $972 billion. NRF expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, similar to an estimated 356,000 last year, but hiring remains measured due to high gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt. The forecast excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
- US holiday sales growth to speed up as shoppers stay resilient , NRF forecasts
- CoreWeave wins Bank of America's backing as revenue growth forecasts rise
CoreWeave shares fell 3% on Thursday amid financing concerns that hit AI infrastructure stocks, even though Bank of America raised its revenue growth forecasts. The bank reiterated its 'buy' rating and $140 price target, arguing that CoreWeave's ability to bring computing capacity online at scale is a competitive advantage. Bank of America now forecasts revenue growth of 105% for 2027 (up from 102%) and 63% for 2028 (up from 58%), assuming 1.4 to 1.5 gigawatts of power capacity added each year and 4.8 gigawatts active by end-2028. Revenue per megawatt is expected to rise from about $10 to $14 by end-2028, supported by deployments of Nvidia's Vera Rubin systems. The bank also says CoreWeave's model of leasing data centre capacity helps manage execution risk, and customer prepayments can cover about 50% of contract value, though investors remain concerned about funding costs as bond yields rise.
Related markets
Latest news
- Why Meta's Q3 earnings could be a little hard to interpret
Meta is reporting its third-quarter earnings after the market closes Wednesday, and Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi says the report will be hard to interpret. Recent good news on Meta's AI products, including new models and an AI agent, may not appear directly in the results but will likely be discussed on the earnings call. The key uncertainty is how investors will react if Meta raises its capex outlook again: it could be seen as fueling those products, or as overspending on offerings not yet reflected in financials. Sozzi expects the market to give Meta the benefit of the doubt on higher capex, as long as the increase does not shock investors.
- Zerohash rolls out a new tool to move crypto without copying wallet addresses
Zerohash launched AUTH, a service that lets users move crypto, stablecoins and blockchain-based stock tokens between linked exchange accounts or self-custody wallets without copying wallet addresses or choosing a blockchain network. To transfer, users pick an account in an app that offers AUTH, sign in and approve the move, while the service handles routing and settlement and each app sets which assets and transfer types it allows. AUTH supports more than 600 connections, including Coinbase, Robinhood, Gemini, MetaMask and Phantom, with Coinbase, Robinhood and Gemini live and Kraken in beta. The launch comes as Zerohash's application for a national trust bank charter, returned by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in July, remains pending after a narrower refiling on Aug. 18.
- 2 charts show why Wall Street is right to worry about tech stocks
Rising cost of capital could affect the financial statements of hyperscalers such as Oracle (ORCL) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) in 2027, as they need fresh debt to fund AI infrastructure and free cash flow may turn negative. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka forecasts hyperscaler free cash flow will turn negative in 2027, implying credit markets will drive more of the AI build-out. Consensus estimates for 2027 capital expenditures are already rising from levels experts believe are too low. Morgan Stanley sees total 2027 capex among hyperscalers reaching $1.6 trillion, up from $978 billion estimated for this year. Dan Ives of Yorkville expects capex to reach the trillions and over 1,000 datacenters to be built in the next few years.
- Update on loan rate cuts as of the evening of Oct 19: MB, VietinBank, SHB, OCB join in
SHB, MB, VietinBank and OCB have announced loan rate cuts, following Agribank, Vietcombank, BIDV, ACB, LPBank and VietBank, with typical reductions of 1.5-2% per year. MB is cutting 1.5% per year for five priority sectors, to rates from 7.9% per year, and up to 2% in some cases; VietinBank is cutting up to 2% per year, while OCB offers up to 2.25% per year on some medium- and long-term loans for OCB Priority Banking members. SHB is cutting 1.5-2% per year for businesses and households and offers rates from 5.5% per year for lecturers and students at some universities. Vietcombank commits to cutting at least 2% through year-end, BIDV applies rates from 6% per year on short-term VND loans from 15/10/2026, and VietBank runs a VND 3,000 billion package. Specific benefits depend on borrower type, loan purpose, term and program conditions, following directives from the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam.
- Nvidia wins CPU business from Modal, previously exclusive to AMD and Intel
Modal, a San Francisco-based AI cloud startup that previously ran its AI agent workloads only on Intel and AMD processors, will begin using Nvidia's new Vera CPU. Early tests showed the Nvidia chip doubled work capacity for AI agents, and Modal plans to run it alongside Intel and AMD chips, assigning each task to the most efficient hardware, though integration requires substantial software changes. Modal recently raised $750 million in a round led by Accel at a $15.75 billion valuation and expects $1 billion in sales over the next year, with usage tripled and revenue up more than 15 times year-over-year. Nvidia projects at least $20 billion in Vera chip revenue this fiscal year in a market it estimates at about $200 billion, and says OpenAI, Anthropic, Oracle and Perplexity also plan to use the chips.
- America's EV Plans Have Died
Billions of dollars went into EV factories, dealerships and marketing after President Biden set a goal for 50% of new US car sales to be zero-emission by 2030, but EV sales have since fallen sharply. US EV sales dropped 30.7% in the first nine months of 2026, after the $7,500 tax credit expired on September 30 last year, and gas prices near $4.50 per gallon have done little to lift them. According to Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price of a new EV was $54,754 in August, above the $50,089 average for all new cars. Ford's EV sales fell 80.2% to 6,047 in the third quarter, and it has no new EV planned until its Fathom launches next year, while Tesla holds over 50% of the market and no other major automaker has even 10%. The article says EVs could recover if gas prices reach $5 and stay there for months, but that is uncertain.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.