In its World Economic Outlook released on 13 October, the IMF warned that Western economies are increasingly vulnerable to energy shocks, with European gas reserves at nearly 15-year lows and refined petroleum products still 70% to 95% more expensive than before the war. A prolonged Middle East conflict, which has seriously disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have pushed global oil reserves down by about 2.7 million barrels per day. The US has allowed certain transactions in Russian diesel until 7 April 2027, while the EU has pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027. Even so, the IMF forecasts global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, and global inflation of 4.7% this year, easing to 4.1% next year.
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Original headline: IMF: Phương Tây ngày càng dễ bị tổn thương trước những cú sốc năng lượng
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