Traders on Kalshi think inflation likely peaked for 2026 but see no sharp drop anytime soon. They expect September's consumer price index, due Wednesday, to rise 3.6% year over year, in line with the FactSet consensus and up from 3.4% in August. Speculators put just under one-in-three odds that inflation hits new highs in 2026, after the prior peak of 4.2% in May. Core inflation is predicted to hold steady at 2.4%, and traders expect it to stay elevated for the rest of the year, with only a 6% chance it falls below 2.2% in 2026.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Related news
- Will Tesla's Roadster Fly Tonight? Prediction Markets Say It's Likely
Tesla CEO Elon Musk says Thursday's Roadster unveiling could be the “greatest product demo of all time.” Prediction market traders increasingly believe he will make the long-delayed sports car fly, and the article cites Polymarket odds on the Roadster becoming airborne.
- Wall Street's dealmaking boom stalled in Q3, but it's likely not over: 'Delayed rather than canceled'
Dealmaking slowed in the third quarter, but executives at Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) said demand remains strong and deals are delayed rather than canceled. The four banks reported combined dealmaking fees of $8.47 billion, up 15% from a year earlier but down 7.5% from a strong second quarter. JPMorgan's CFO said activity slowed in late September as market volatility widened the gap between buyers and sellers, while Goldman's fees reached $3.2 billion, up 22%. Citigroup's CEO said private equity sponsors have been slower to sell aged assets despite a strong pipeline. Debt and equity underwriting fees at all four banks fell from the second quarter.
- Here’s how much the AI boom is contributing to inflation, according to Goldman Sachs calculations
- UK economy grows marginally in August but financial pressures remain
UK monthly GDP grew 0.1% in August, according to the ONS, after 0.4% growth in both June and July, with June's figure revised up from 0.3%. The August gain was driven mainly by a 0.8% rise in production, while services were flat and construction fell 0.2%. Over the three months to August, real GDP rose 0.7%, up from 0.5% in the previous period, but this modest growth does little to ease pressure on households facing high inflation and mortgage rates. Richard Pike of Phoebus Software noted the IMF has upgraded its 2026 growth forecast, but said three months of modest expansion does not guarantee a sustained recovery and that it is unclear whether growth is broad-based. With the Budget a fortnight away, he said the Chancellor needs to turn signs of resilience into measures that support households and the housing market.
- BlackRock's crypto ETF assets surge 63% but remain far below 2025 peak
BlackRock reported $79.6 billion in digital assets under management at the end of September, up 63% from $48.8 billion at the end of June, according to its third-quarter earnings report. Investors added $7.9 billion to its digital asset products in the quarter, more than offsetting roughly $2.2 billion in outflows in the first half of the year, while rising crypto prices contributed $22.9 billion of the $30.8 billion increase in assets. Holdings remain 23% below the nearly $104 billion of a year earlier. Over the past 12 months, net inflows totaled $6.3 billion, but market declines erased $30.6 billion. BlackRock earned $39 million in quarterly fees and securities lending revenue from its digital asset products, and did not provide separate figures for its bitcoin fund, IBIT.
- Analyst Sees TSLA-SPCX Merger Coming By December, but Prediction Markets Aren’t Buying It
Barclays analyst Dan Levy said a Tesla–SpaceX merger, both led by Elon Musk, could be announced before Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, potentially by early December, to vertically integrate AI technology. He warned that a timeline slipping into October or early November could challenge merger approval, noting that 11% of votes at Tesla's 2025 annual meeting were broker non-votes effectively counted against. Musk holds roughly 85% of voting rights in SpaceX and 19.9% in Tesla as of a June 2026 filing, and critics warn that more voting power could erode shareholder rights. On prediction markets, Polymarket bettors gave a 24% chance of a merger by the end of December 2026, while Kalshi bettors gave 52% for a merger before May 2027.
Related markets
Latest news
- Meta Earnings: What To Look For From META
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) will report earnings this Wednesday after the market closes. Last quarter, revenue reached $60.8 billion, up 28% year on year and above analysts' expectations, though revenue guidance for next quarter slightly missed forecasts; daily active users hit 3.6 billion, up 3.4%. The market expects revenue growth of 23.6% this quarter, slowing from 26.2% a year earlier, and analysts have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the past 30 days. Over the last month, consumer internet stocks have gained 1.3% on average, while Meta is down 4.8%.
- An AI bust could come from places investors arent watching , an economist says
Concerns about an AI bubble are growing, and TS Lombard's Dario Perkins warns that investors may be overlooking other risks. Debt among smaller cloud providers, model developers and suppliers could reach $2 trillion by the end of 2027. Perkins does not see this as a systemic risk, but warns that earnings disappointments and canceled orders could ripple through the ecosystem, and that a chip glut could follow over-ordering. Much of the industry's revenue growth still comes from spending within the AI ecosystem rather than from businesses and consumers outside it. He also flags political backlash, noting that ordinary people dislike AI and nearby datacenters, and warns that one high-profile accident could turn AI toxic.
- Yen jumps after JGB auction draws big demand , euro finds relief
The yen rose 0.2% to 158.15 per dollar in Asian trading after a 20-year Japanese government bond auction drew bids of 5.84 times the amount sold, well above the 4.01 times at the previous auction, and the yield fell 6 basis points to 3.71%. A State Street strategist said the record demand suggests sidelined cash is returning and that JGBs are becoming a relative haven from political and fiscal volatility in Europe, particularly France. Anti-government protests in France prompted curfews in several cities, while Italy said it would send 500 troops after two days of unrest, and the euro rallied 0.2% to $1.1234. Elsewhere, bitcoin slipped 0.3% to $81,674.25 and ether edged down 0.2% to $2,393.21.
- Unemployment rate dips to 4 . 7 % - but vacancies hit five - year low
Vacancies fell by 21,000 to 691,000 in the three months to September, the biggest drop since the three months to March and the lowest since July to September 2014 outside the pandemic, while unemployment dipped in the three months to August. Payroll numbers were down 66,000 over the year to September. The ONS said the fall was mainly among smaller firms struggling with higher labour costs, following rises in employer national insurance, the minimum wage and workers' rights. A CBI survey found labour costs and regulations were making it harder to create jobs, and firms urged the Chancellor not to add to their burden in the October 28 Budget. ICAEW's Suren Thiru said the labour market is 'running on idle' and unemployment could climb above 5 per cent, while Shadow Chancellor Andrew Griffith blamed Labour's 'Jobs Tax' and red tape.
- CNBC Daily Open: Tech rebounds in the U.S., but Asia isn’t buying it yet
U.S. tech stocks rebounded as the Nasdaq Composite rose more than 1% on Monday, with Nvidia up 1.4% and Tesla up 3.8%. In Asia, however, tech shares fell on Tuesday, with South Korea's Kospi down over 4% and Japan's Nikkei 225 down 1.6%. Nvidia also unveiled plans to back four German AI startups as part of its nearly $10 billion European investment commitment. Jenny Lee of Granite Asia said Asian companies are reaching IPOs much sooner, often at four to five years old, while Jio Platforms' Indian IPO saw its anchor investor quota oversubscribed more than 30 times, aiming to raise up to 302 billion rupees ($3.2 billion). In Singapore, several agricultural stocks fell after Senior Minister K Shanmugam warned that companies would not escape responsibility for possible roles in the haze, noting seven firms had been questioned by the Singapore Exchange.
- NiSource (NI) Stock Looks Overvalued Against Its Dividend Outlook
NiSource has nearly doubled shareholders' money over the past five years, delivering a 97.6% total return, which raises the question of whether dividends can justify the current share price. The article highlights a new 20-year energy agreement with Microsoft, including customer-funded grid upgrades and long-term electric service for data centers, which may affect future capital needs and cash-flow visibility. Using a Dividend Discount Model with inputs of about $1.35 dividend per share, roughly 9.07% return on equity, a payout ratio slightly above 61%, and implied dividend growth of about 3.5%, the estimated intrinsic value sits meaningfully below the current share price of $41.95. The model still does not bridge that gap, suggesting income investors are paying a premium for a relatively steady payout with modest assumed growth.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.