Intel shares trade near $101, up about 175% in 2026 and more than five times their April 2025 low close of about $18, but over 10 years a $10,000 investment made in mid-October 2016 with dividends reinvested is now worth about $33,700, versus about $42,900 in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. Intel's revenue fell from a record $79.0 billion in 2021 to $52.9 billion in 2025, and its dividend was cut to $0.125 a share in February 2023 and suspended from the fourth quarter of 2024. Second-quarter revenue rose 25% to $16.1 billion and adjusted EPS was $0.42, yet the stock now trades at about 48 times expected 2027 earnings, versus about 14 times 2016 earnings. The author argues the rally reflects expectations of future profit growth over years rather than current earnings, and concludes that the index fund is the better choice.
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