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Related tickers and likely impact
BTC/USDT
• NeutralBitcoin
Relevance: low
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Layer 1 |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 81,938.40 |
| Change that session | -0.22% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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- JPMorgan Flips Bullish on Bitcoin Over the Next Ten Years
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Scott Melker reviews JPMorgan's recent comments on bitcoin, with the bank's asset managers forecasting roughly 10% annual returns for bitcoin, versus about 7.5% a year for stocks and 5.5% for gold. He says it is the first time JPMorgan has attached a number to its bitcoin expectations, which he considers the key news. The piece also recalls Jamie Diamond calling bitcoin 'a scam' and 'rat poison', even as JPMorgan becomes more deeply entrenched in the space. The commentator argues the research shows JPMorgan is finally studying crypto as an investment.
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JPMorgan now expects bitcoin to outperform U.S. stocks, bonds and gold over the next 10 years, with a 10% annualized base-case forecast. It is the first time the bank has set a range for bitcoin returns, a notable shift for a firm whose CEO once called the asset a “fraud.”
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JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market assumptions for the first time, with base-case annualized returns of 10% over the next decade. The forecast also assumes annual volatility of 55%, more than three times that of US large-cap stocks, so the firm has not added Bitcoin to its main portfolio models, citing unstable correlations with other assets. The JPMorgan team says it is premature to treat BTC as a diversifier in a balanced portfolio, though that could change if volatility declines and correlations stabilize. About one in ten clients surveyed said their portfolios hold crypto and roughly 17% plan to prioritize it, helped by a more developed regulatory framework. Bitcoin ETF investors who bought near the 2025 peak of just over $126,000 saw their holdings lose as much as 50%.
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JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its 2027 long-term return forecasts for the first time, estimating a 10% compound annual return over 10 to 15 years, versus 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 8.2% for U.S. REITs and 5.5% for gold, though projected annual volatility is 55%. In an October 16, 2026 interview, Justin Sun said AI and quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin's security within 1 to 1.5 years, making him “slightly more bearish.” Many cryptographers argue the threat from classical computers is overstated, and Bitcoin developers are working on quantum-resistant address proposals such as BIP 360. The article also notes Sun's potential conflict of interest, since Tron competes directly with Bitcoin. As of October 20, Bitcoin was priced at $81,453, down 6.8% year-to-date.
- JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Will Beat Gold and Stocks — After Years of Crypto Skepticism
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J.P. Morgan Asset Management projected a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the first time the report includes the asset. That forecast tops its estimates for U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5%), gold (5.5%) and a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio (7%), but the report puts Bitcoin's annualized volatility at 55%, versus about 17% for gold. The firm still excludes Bitcoin from its main covariance matrices, citing volatility and unstable correlations, and rejected the currency debasement bull case as “wide of the mark.” Bitwise's Matt Hougan welcomed the forecast but argued the 55% volatility assumption is too high, making the return estimate too conservative. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $526.7 million on Monday, trimming October's net outflows to about $88 million.
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J.P. Morgan Asset Management projected a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the first time the report includes the asset. That forecast tops its estimates for U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5%), gold (5.5%) and a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio (7%), but the report puts Bitcoin's annualized volatility at 55%, versus about 17% for gold. The firm still excludes Bitcoin from its main covariance matrices, citing volatility and unstable correlations, and rejected the currency debasement bull case as “wide of the mark.” Bitwise's Matt Hougan welcomed the forecast but argued the 55% volatility assumption is too high, making the return estimate too conservative. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $526.7 million on Monday, trimming October's net outflows to about $88 million.
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